{"id":9992,"date":"2012-01-07T09:36:44","date_gmt":"2012-01-07T07:36:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=9992"},"modified":"2012-01-07T09:37:12","modified_gmt":"2012-01-07T07:37:12","slug":"2012de-tl-guclenecek-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/2012de-tl-guclenecek-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"2012&#8217;de TL G\u00fc\u00e7lenecek mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn do\u011fru \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 i\u00e7in FED&#8217;in parasal geni\u015flemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi, Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n da toparlanmas\u0131 gerek.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3640791222\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130ki ayr\u0131 gazeteden aray\u0131p g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f sorduklar\u0131nda Merkez Bankas\u0131 (MB) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Say\u0131n Erdem Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Bursa\u2019da yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmadan haberdar oldum. \u0130nternet sayfalar\u0131ndan konu\u015fman\u0131n geni\u015f bir \u00f6zetini okudum. Bu \u00f6zetlerde iki vurgu dikkatimi \u00e7ekti. Birincisi, Say\u0131n Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131 \u201c2012, liran\u0131n d\u00fcnyada en \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7lenen, en \u00e7ok de\u011ferlenen paralardan birisi oldu\u011fu bir y\u0131l olacak\u201d demi\u015f. \u0130kincisi, son y\u0131llardaki y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n -\u00f6zetlerde bir yanl\u0131\u015fl\u0131k yoksa- bol ve ucuz finansmandan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmi\u015f. Bu de\u011ferlendirmeyi, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n liran\u0131n y\u0131llarca a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferli tutuldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn yanl\u0131\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulamak i\u00e7in yapm\u0131\u015f.<br \/>\nHemen belirteyim; son y\u0131llardaki y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131k i\u00e7in s\u00f6ylediklerine \u00f6z\u00fcnde kat\u0131l\u0131yorum. Bu k\u00f6\u015fede de s\u0131k s\u0131k okudunuz. K\u00fcresel krizle birlikte geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin merkez bankalar\u0131 \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck miktarda para bast\u0131lar, faiz hadlerini son derece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeylere indirdiler. Bu para, ekonomisi daha sa\u011flam olan ve ayn\u0131 zamanda daha y\u00fcksek getiri sa\u011flayan bizim gibi \u00fclkelere akt\u0131. Sonu\u00e7ta bizim gibi \u00fclkelerde bir yandan yerli para de\u011ferlendi, di\u011fer yandan h\u0131zl\u0131 kredi geni\u015flemesi ya\u015fand\u0131. Her ikisi de cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 y\u00f6nde \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Hatta bu \u00fclkeler i\u00e7inde en h\u0131zl\u0131 kredi geni\u015flemesinin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve en y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sahip \u00fclkelerin ba\u015f\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye geldi.<br \/>\nDo\u011fal olarak bizim gibi \u00fclkelerde para otoriteleri eninde sonunda geldi\u011fi gibi d\u00f6necek olan bu k\u0131sa vadeli bol d\u0131\u015f kaynak giri\u015finden kaynaklanan h\u0131zl\u0131 kredi geni\u015flemesini frenlemek i\u00e7in \u00e7are arad\u0131lar. MB de arad\u0131. Buraya kadar bir yanl\u0131\u015fl\u0131k yok. Daha \u00f6nce \u00e7ok yazd\u0131m; ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bi\u00e7imde tekrarlamayaca\u011f\u0131m. K\u0131saca: Bu \u00e7are, enflasyon hedeflemesi rejimindeki politika ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n, Bankac\u0131l\u0131k D\u00fczenleme ve Denetleme Kurumu\u2019nu da i\u015fin i\u00e7ine katarak (BDDK) g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesi yoluyla bulunabilirdi. \u00d6yle yap\u0131lmad\u0131; \u00e7ok karma\u015f\u0131k bir yola gidildi. Benim kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131m, para politikas\u0131n\u0131n sayg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 zedeleme riski olan bu karma\u015fa. Say\u0131n Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131\u2019n\u0131n liran\u0131n de\u011feri hakk\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn do\u011fru \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 i\u00e7in ise \u015fu senaryonun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi gerekiyor. Bir: ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 2012\u2019de faiz artt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na ba\u015flamayacak ve parasal geni\u015flemeyi geri \u00e7ekmeyecek. ABD ekonomisi yava\u015f\u00e7a toparlanacak ve ABD\u2019den kaynaklanan bir nedenle risk i\u015ftah\u0131 azalmayacak. \u0130ki: Avrupa\u2019daki durum bug\u00fcnk\u00fcnden daha k\u00f6t\u00fc olmayacak. Yetmez. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 2011\u2019in y\u0131l\u0131n sonuna do\u011fru bol kep\u00e7e basmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 paralar\u0131n bizim gibi \u00fclkelere akmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Ek olarak risk i\u015ftah\u0131nda Avrupa kaynakl\u0131 bir azalma olmamal\u0131.<br \/>\nSenaryoda ABD i\u00e7in belirttiklerim \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck ihtimalle ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek. Oysa senaryonun Avrupa ile ilgili k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar ger\u00e7ekle\u015fir oldu\u011fu \u015f\u00fcpheli. Elbette ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 var. O zaman Say\u0131n Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131 hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kar, umar\u0131m \u00f6yle olur. \u00dcstelik bu ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda \u015fu andaki d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahaleleri de hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kar. Ama ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. Avrupa\u2019daki bankalar\u0131n haziran sonuna kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k 115 milyar euro ek sermaye koymalar\u0131 ya da bu ek sermayeye gerek kalmayacak bi\u00e7imde bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmeleri gerekiyor. Ayr\u0131ca daha \u00f6nce y\u00fckl\u00fc miktarda banka bonosu satarak yaratt\u0131klar\u0131 bor\u00e7lar\u0131 bir s\u00fcredir geri \u00f6demekte zorlan\u0131yorlar. Bu sorunlar\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rla\u015fmas\u0131 halinde bizim gibi \u00fclkelere sermaye giri\u015fi \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde aksayabilir. Bu durumda lira daha da de\u011fer yitirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn do\u011fru \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 i\u00e7in FED&#8217;in parasal geni\u015flemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi, Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n da toparlanmas\u0131 gerek. \u0130ki ayr\u0131 gazeteden aray\u0131p g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f sorduklar\u0131nda Merkez Bankas\u0131 (MB) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Say\u0131n Erdem&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9992","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9992","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9992"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9992\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9992"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9992"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9992"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}