{"id":9956,"date":"2012-01-06T09:51:34","date_gmt":"2012-01-06T07:51:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=9956"},"modified":"2012-01-06T09:54:17","modified_gmt":"2012-01-06T07:54:17","slug":"abd-yukariyi-ab-asagiyi-zorluyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/abd-yukariyi-ab-asagiyi-zorluyor\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD yukar\u0131y\u0131 AB a\u015fa\u011f\u0131y\u0131 zorluyor"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify\">ABD\u2019de gelen veriler y\u00fczleri g\u00fcld\u00fcrse de piyasalara etkisi \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. ADP \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam verisinde son y\u0131llar\u0131n en iyi rakam\u0131 gelmesine kar\u015f\u0131n Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ne y\u00f6nelik endi\u015feler nedeniyle ABD\u2019de endeksler g\u00fcn\u00fc ancak yatay kapatabildi. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz aylarda gelen verileri g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurunca d\u00fcnk\u00fc b\u00fcltenimizde de de\u011findi\u011fimiz gibi d\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan ADP ve bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam rakamlar\u0131ndan umutlu oldu\u011fumuzu dile getirmi\u015ftik. ADP bizi yan\u0131ltmad\u0131 ama piyasalar\u0131n veriye \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tepki vermesi beklentilerimiz d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndayd\u0131. Bug\u00fcn TS\u0130 ile 15:30\u2019da ABD\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam rakam\u0131 ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 ADP\u2019ye nazaran daha etkili olabilir. Tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam da 150 bin civar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f beklentisi var, gelecek rakam\u0131n bu beklentiyi a\u015fmas\u0131 bizleri \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmayacak. \u00d6nceki ay \u00e7ok sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yaparak %8,6\u2019ya gerileyen i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n ise ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz ay %8,7\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4117335952\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff\"><strong>AB krizini haftaya fiyatlar\u0131z<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">AB\u2019de gelen veriler ve yap\u0131lan bono ihaleleri hi\u00e7 de iyi sinyaller \u00fcretmiyor.\u00a0 Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l ya\u015fanan s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar aynen bu y\u0131la ta\u015f\u0131nm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u0130talya\u2019da 10 y\u0131ll\u0131klar kritik olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz %7\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken, \u0130spanya\u2019da da %5,5 \u00fczerine at\u0131ld\u0131. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde ya da ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerde bu \u00fclkelerin bonolar\u0131nda al\u0131m yapabilir ama bu yine \u00e7ok k\u0131sa vadeli \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm olacakt\u0131r. AMB bu ad\u0131m\u0131 atar ve ABD\u2019de veriler bekledi\u011fimiz gibi olumlu gelmeye devam ederse g\u00fcn\u00fc kurtar\u0131r\u0131z. AB taraf\u0131nda Almanya ve Fransa bu durumdan fiilen etkilenmeye ba\u015flamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece daha uzun vadeli ad\u0131mlar at\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00e7ok zor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u00d6zetle Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ndeki sorunlar k\u0131sa vadede \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclecek gibi de\u011fil, bu nedenle de borsalarda kal\u0131c\u0131 toparlanma bir s\u00fcre daha zor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff\"><strong>M\u00fcdahaleler ve TL<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">TCMB y\u0131l\u0131n ilk g\u00fcn\u00fcnden itibaren her g\u00fcn\u00fc istisnai g\u00fcn olarak adland\u0131rmaya devam ederken d\u00fcn hari\u00e7 do\u011frudan sat\u0131\u015flara da devam etti. G\u00f6r\u00fcnen o ki ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerde de bu sat\u0131\u015flar ve ek \u00f6nlemler g\u00fcndemden d\u00fc\u015fmeyecek. Net d\u00f6viz rezervleri bu \u015fekilde sert sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n uzun s\u00fcre devam ettirilmesini imkans\u0131z k\u0131lsa da TCMB\u2019nin bu sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 destekleyecek yeni enstr\u00fcmanlar kullanmas\u0131 bizleri \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmayacak. Haftal\u0131k Strateji B\u00fclteni\u2019mizde de de\u011findi\u011fimiz gibi TCMB\u2019nin bu sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 bir inat u\u011fruna yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyoruz. Elindeki veri setleri ve tecr\u00fcbe ile birlikte m\u00fcdahalelerde ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olmaktan ba\u015fka bir se\u00e7ene\u011fi olmamas\u0131, \u015fuana kadar m\u00fcdahaleler kurda beklenen gerilemeyi yapmasa da, bizce TCMB\u2019nin ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olma ihtimalinin g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemesi gerekti\u011fini \u00a0g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff\"><strong>\u0130MKB keyifsiz, \u0131skonto edilecek \u00e7ok risk var<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc haftal\u0131k stratejinin ana g\u00fcndemini bu risklere ay\u0131raca\u011f\u0131z. G\u00fcney s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeler, %12\u2019ye oturan %13 konu\u015fulan faizler, d\u0131\u015f finansman ihtiyac\u0131 ve TCMB\u2019nin kur politikas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan ba\u015fl\u0131klar olacak.<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff0000\">NOT:<\/span> G\u00fcn i\u00e7inde \u00f6nemli g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm haberleri ve k\u0131sa yorumlar\u0131m\u0131 Twitter \u00fczerinde takip edebilirsiniz. Takip etmek isteyenler i\u00e7in Twitter adresim: <span style=\"color: #3366ff\">uzeyir_dogan<\/span><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2209767116\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>\u00dczeyir DO\u011eAN \/ Ara\u015ft\u0131rma M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc<br \/>\nMARBA\u015e Menkul De\u011ferler<br \/>\n<a href=\"mailto:uzeyir.dogan@marbasmenkul.com.tr\">uzeyir.dogan@marbasmenkul.com.tr<\/a><br \/>\n0212 286 98 22<\/strong> <strong><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ABD\u2019de gelen veriler y\u00fczleri g\u00fcld\u00fcrse de piyasalara etkisi \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. ADP \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam verisinde son y\u0131llar\u0131n en iyi rakam\u0131 gelmesine kar\u015f\u0131n Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ne&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4711,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9956","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9956","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9956"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9956\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4711"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9956"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9956"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9956"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}