{"id":9947,"date":"2012-01-06T09:17:13","date_gmt":"2012-01-06T07:17:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=9947"},"modified":"2012-01-06T09:17:13","modified_gmt":"2012-01-06T07:17:13","slug":"turkiye-ekonomisi-yumusak-inis-yapiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/turkiye-ekonomisi-yumusak-inis-yapiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisi Yumu\u015fak \u0130ni\u015f Yap\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Ekonomi Ba\u015fdan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 ve eski Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Durmu\u015f Y\u0131lmaz, Eyl\u00fcl 2009&#8217;dan Eyl\u00fcl 2011&#8217;e kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k 2,7 milyon yeni i\u015f yarat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1165471693\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Y\u0131lmaz, Orhangazi Ticaret ve Sanayi Odas\u0131 (OTSO) taraf\u0131ndan d\u00fczenlenen, &#8221;2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirmesi ve 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda ekonomiden beklentiler&#8221; konulu panelde, T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 9, 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk 9 ay\u0131nda ise y\u00fczde 9,6 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtti.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin dinamiklerinin i\u00e7 talepli bir b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye dayal\u0131 oldu\u011funu ifade eden Y\u0131lmaz, &#8221;Bu i\u00e7 talebin de alt bile\u015fenlerine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda \u00f6zel kesim t\u00fcketim talebi ve \u00f6zel kesim yat\u0131r\u0131m talebi \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131k gibi sorunlar\u0131n azalt\u0131labilmesi i\u00e7in yava\u015flamas\u0131 laz\u0131m ve \u00f6zellikle de bir tak\u0131m d\u00fczeltmelerin ekonomimizde olmas\u0131 laz\u0131m&#8221; diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n<p>Y\u0131lmaz, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ger\u00e7ek olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda \u015f\u00fcpheler oldu\u011funu vurgulayarak, \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti:<\/p>\n<p>&#8221;Ben &#8216;bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ek miydi?&#8217; sorusunu \u00e7ok anlaml\u0131 bulmuyorum. Devletin kurumu var, istatistik kurumu, bir y\u00f6ntem var. O y\u00f6nteme g\u00f6re bu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Y\u00f6ntemin yanl\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu, iyile\u015ftirilmesi gerekti\u011fini tart\u0131\u015fabilirsiniz. Ama ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan rakamlara herkes g\u00fcvenmek zorundad\u0131r. &#8216;Bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme istihdam yaratmad\u0131&#8217; diyenler var. Bence bu da yanl\u0131\u015f. Eyl\u00fcl 2009&#8217;dan Eyl\u00fcl 2011&#8217;e kadar a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 yukar\u0131 2,7 milyon yeni i\u015f yarat\u0131ld\u0131. 73 milyon n\u00fcfusumuzda 24 milyon \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan insan\u0131m\u0131z var ve kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131 da y\u00fczde 40&#8217;l\u0131 seviyelerden y\u00fczde 50&#8217;lere artm\u0131\u015f durumda. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla milli gelir de 10 bin dolar\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnde bir rakama ula\u015ft\u0131 ve bu d\u00f6nemde faiz oranlar\u0131 da hayal edemeyece\u011fimiz derecede d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme istihdam yaratt\u0131. Daha fazla yaratabilirdi.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><strong>-\u0130\u015fsizli\u011fi art\u0131rmadan, enflasyonu y\u00fckseltmeden ne oranda b\u00fcy\u00fcyebiliriz?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Durmu\u015f Y\u0131lmaz, as\u0131l sorulmas\u0131 gereken sorunun bu b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcp s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmeyece\u011fi olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini belirterek, bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131, y\u00fczde 8&#8217;li oranlar\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmenin zor oldu\u011funa dikkati \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n<p>&#8221;Peki s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi gerekir mi?&#8221; diye soran Y\u0131lmaz, \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yledi:<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3530845047\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&#8221;Cevap olarak herhalde toplumun her ferdi &#8216;evet&#8217; der. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bize d\u00fc\u015fen g\u00f6rev, toplum olarak uzun vadede s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fin yollar\u0131n\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rmak, bulmak zorunday\u0131z. Burada dikkate almam\u0131z gereken husus \u015fu, bug\u00fcn ekonomimizin potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 nedir? \u00d6nce onu tespit etmemiz laz\u0131m. Potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131ndan kast\u0131m \u015fu, ekonominin bug\u00fcnk\u00fc i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc e\u011fitimlili\u011fi, sermaye birikimi, sermaye verimlili\u011fi ve di\u011fer alanlardaki veriler dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda biz ger\u00e7ekten sorun yaratmadan, i\u015fsizli\u011fi art\u0131rmadan, enflasyonu y\u00fckseltmeden ne oranda b\u00fcy\u00fcyebiliriz? Bu oran herhalde 5-6 olabilir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla \u015fu andaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 bizim potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcmemizin neredeyse iki kat\u0131. S\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez oldu\u011fu \u015furadan ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu bize cari a\u00e7\u0131k olarak yans\u0131yor. Kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131kan en \u00f6nemli sorun da cari a\u00e7\u0131k. Ama biz bunun s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesinin yollar\u0131n\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rmam\u0131z gerekiyor.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><strong>-2012 tahminleri<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Y\u0131lmaz, 2012 y\u0131l\u0131yla ilgili bir baz senaryo haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek, \u015f\u00f6yle konu\u015ftu:<\/p>\n<p>&#8221;Avrupa batm\u0131yor, avro da\u011f\u0131lm\u0131yor. \u0130kincisi resesyon yok. Ama b\u00fcy\u00fcme IMF ve OECD&#8217;nin tahmin etti\u011fi gibi s\u0131f\u0131r veya s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi yumu\u015fak ini\u015f yap\u0131yor ve s\u0131k\u0131 maliye politikas\u0131 devam ediyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede orta vadede programlarda \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u00fczde 4&#8217;l\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme bence ba\u015far\u0131labilir gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Tabi baz\u0131 kurumlar\u0131n tahminleri \u00e7ok daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckt\u00fc. Bu farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n nedenlerinin ba\u015f\u0131nda d\u0131\u015f ticaret kanal\u0131 var. E\u011fer Avrupa&#8217;da ekonomi b\u00fcy\u00fcmez ise biz oralara mal satamay\u0131z dolay\u0131s\u0131yla da bu mal ve hizmetleri satan \u015firketlerde de bir tak\u0131m k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeler ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilir.&#8221;<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4082688040\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin 2001 y\u0131l\u0131nda ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 krizi olumlu bir kriz olarak nitelendiren Y\u0131lmaz, \u015funlar\u0131 kaydetti:<\/p>\n<p>&#8221;Ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki krizler son bulmu\u015ftur, harplerin son buldu\u011fu gibi. Ama arkas\u0131nda \u00e7ile \u00e7ekmi\u015f, ac\u0131 \u00e7ekmi\u015f bir nesil b\u0131rakacak. Bug\u00fcn bize d\u00fc\u015fen g\u00f6rev, &#8216;buraya ni\u00e7in geldik ve buradan en az hasarla nas\u0131l \u00e7\u0131karabiliriz?&#8217; sorusunun sorulmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Krizler her zaman y\u0131k\u0131mla sonu\u00e7lanmaz. Y\u0131k\u0131mla sonu\u00e7lanan krizler oldu\u011fu gibi olumlu sonu\u00e7 veren krizler de vard\u0131r. Bug\u00fcn 2001 krizimiz, olumlu bir kriz. Bu kriz bize yol ald\u0131rd\u0131. Bug\u00fcn geldi\u011fimiz noktadaki ba\u015far\u0131 da o krizden ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z yola ba\u011fl\u0131. Bizim krizimiz 8-9 ay s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Dibi g\u00f6rd\u00fck ve sonra \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131k. O d\u00f6nemde bir tane hasta vard\u0131. O, bizdik. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n geri kalan k\u0131sm\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131yd\u0131. Ekonomimizi toparlad\u0131k, ihracat yapmaya ba\u015flad\u0131k ama bug\u00fcn d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131 hasta. Herkes ihracatla toparlanma pe\u015finde. Nereye ihracat yapaca\u011f\u0131z? Aya m\u0131 ihracat yapaca\u011f\u0131z? Bu \u00fclkelerin i\u00e7inde bulunduklar\u0131 durumdan \u00e7\u0131kabilmeleri i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcmeleri \u015fart. Yunanistan iki y\u0131ld\u0131r b\u00fcy\u00fcyemiyor.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcnya gazetesi yazar\u0131 R\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc Bozkurt&#8217;un moderat\u00f6rl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 panelin ard\u0131ndan sorular\u0131 yan\u0131tland\u0131ran Durmu\u015f Y\u0131lmaz&#8217;a, \u0130znik \u00e7inisi hediye edildi.<\/p>\n<p>Y\u0131lmaz, panelden \u00f6nce Orhangazi&#8217;deki baz\u0131 sanayi tesislerini gezdi, i\u015fadamlar\u0131yla g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Ekonomi Ba\u015fdan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 ve eski Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Durmu\u015f Y\u0131lmaz, Eyl\u00fcl 2009&#8217;dan Eyl\u00fcl 2011&#8217;e kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k 2,7 milyon yeni i\u015f yarat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Y\u0131lmaz, Orhangazi Ticaret&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":4518,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9947","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9947","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9947"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9947\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4518"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9947"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9947"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9947"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}