{"id":9944,"date":"2012-01-06T09:14:37","date_gmt":"2012-01-06T07:14:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=9944"},"modified":"2012-01-06T09:14:48","modified_gmt":"2012-01-06T07:14:48","slug":"doviz-bitecek-korkusu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/doviz-bitecek-korkusu\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u00f6viz Bitecek Korkusu"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Son s\u0131ralarda Merkez Bankas\u0131 ile yat\u0131p, Merkez Bankas\u0131 ile kalk\u0131yoruz.\u00a0 Banka adeta\u00a0 g\u00fcnl\u00fck\u00a0 hayat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n i\u00e7ine girmi\u015f durumda.\u00a0 TCMB neredeyse her g\u00fcn d\u00f6vize m\u00fcdahale ediyor. Malum d\u00f6vize do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahale\u00a0 d\u00f6viz almak ya da al\u0131p d\u00f6viz satmak\u00a0 yoluyla\u00a0 oluyor. Bankan\u0131n d\u00f6viz sat\u0131n alarak d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda i\u015flem yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok olmu\u015ftur. Bunlar\u0131n bu s\u0131ralardaki kadar hayat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n\u00a0 eksenine\u00a0 yerle\u015fti\u011fi\u00a0 bir zaman aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 hat\u0131rlam\u0131yorum do\u011frusu. \u0130statistikler Bankan\u0131n 2002-2007 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 operasyonlar\u0131nda net d\u00f6viz al\u0131c\u0131s\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.\u00a0 O s\u0131ralarda hi\u00e7 kimse de aman\u00a0 Merkez\u00a0 Bankas\u0131\u00a0 d\u00f6viz al\u0131yor diye tela\u015f yapmad\u0131.\u00a0 Bu\u00a0 defa durum farkl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.\u00a0\u00a0 Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n d\u00f6viz\u00a0 i\u015flemleri\u00a0 kayg\u0131yla izleniyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1712577620\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Yayg\u0131nla\u015fma\u00a0 e\u011filimi de\u00a0 g\u00f6steren\u00a0 kayg\u0131lar basit bir nedenden kaynaklan\u0131yor.\u00a0 Merkez Bankas\u0131 bu s\u0131ralarda d\u00f6viz alm\u0131yor d\u00f6viz sat\u0131yor. Hem de her g\u00fcn man\u015fetlere ta\u015f\u0131nacak\u00a0 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde, ciddi boyutlara ula\u015fan miktarlarda d\u00f6viz sat\u0131yor.\u00a0 Milyar dolarlarla ifade edilen bu sat\u0131\u015flar sokaktaki\u00a0 adam parasal tahayy\u00fcl s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131 fazlas\u0131yla a\u015f\u0131yor.\u00a0 Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6viz\u00a0 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0 d\u00f6viz rezervlerinden\u00a0 yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 biliniyor.\u00a0 Sabit bir rezerv b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden b\u00f6ylesine b\u00fcy\u00fck mebla\u011fl\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar yap\u0131l\u0131yor olmas\u0131 kayg\u0131y\u0131 yaratan temel\u00a0 unsur.\u00a0 D\u00f6viz rezervinin bitmesinden korkuluyor.\u00a0 Yani\u00a0 gittik\u00e7e yay\u0131lan ve dozu artan bir &#8220;d\u00f6viz bitecek&#8221; korkusu olu\u015fmu\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n<p>Son aylarda\u00a0 Merkez\u00a0 Bankas\u0131na\u00a0 d\u00f6n\u00fck baz\u0131 tepkiler oldu\u011fu ve\u00a0 bunun gittik\u00e7e t\u0131rmand\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6zleniyor. S\u00f6z konusu\u00a0 tepkilerin olu\u015fumunda\u00a0 Bankan\u0131n\u00a0 alg\u0131lanmas\u0131\u00a0 zor bir politikaya kaym\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0 \u00f6nemli\u00a0 rol\u00fc var\u00a0 ku\u015fkusuz.\u00a0 Ama,\u00a0 kendi ad\u0131ma,\u00a0 son\u00a0 g\u00fcnlerdeki\u00a0 tepki\u00a0\u00a0 t\u0131rmanmas\u0131nda bu\u00a0 &#8220;d\u00f6viz bitecek korkusu&#8221; nun\u00a0 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u00a0 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;D\u00f6viz\u00a0 bitecek&#8221;\u00a0 korkusunun\u00a0\u00a0 T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de\u00a0 \u00f6nemli bir\u00a0 iktisadi davran\u0131\u015f kal\u0131b\u0131\u00a0 oldu\u011fu\u00a0 s\u00f6ylenebilir.\u00a0 T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin yerle\u015fik say\u0131labilecek b\u00f6yle bir damar\u0131 var.\u00a0 Kimi zaman bast\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r gibi olsa da olduk\u00e7a canl\u0131 bir damard\u0131r bu.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00f6viz\u00a0 bitecek\u00a0 korkusunun\u00a0 bu\u00a0 denli yerle\u015fik hale gelmi\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131n ana nedeni\u00a0 T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin krizler tarihinde yatar.\u00a0 Kriz\u00a0 \u00fcretmekte\u00a0\u00a0 baya\u011f\u0131\u00a0 maharetli oldu\u011fumuz bilinir. Yirminci y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda\u00a0 say\u0131s\u0131\u00a0 neredeyse\u00a0 d\u00fczine ile ifade edilecek kadar \u00e7ok\u00a0 iktisadi kriz ya\u015fand\u0131\u00a0 bu \u00fclkede. S\u00f6z konusu\u00a0 krizlerin\u00a0 hemen hepsi,\u00a0 \u015f\u00f6yle ye da b\u00f6yle ama\u00a0 mutlaka,\u00a0 d\u00f6vizle\u00a0 ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 oldu.\u00a0\u00a0 D\u00f6vizin bitmesi,\u00a0\u00a0 d\u00f6viz dar bo\u011faz\u0131na girilmesi ya da,\u00a0 en hafif durumda,\u00a0 d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin yetersiz kalmas\u0131 gibi olgular krizleri tetikledi.\u00a0\u00a0 \u0130\u015fin en ilgin\u00e7 yan\u0131 da\u00a0 krizlerle\u00a0 birlikte devreye\u00a0 giren\u00a0 IMF&#8217;nin\u00a0 temel\u00a0 i\u015flevi\u00a0 acil d\u00f6viz temin etmek olarak alg\u0131land\u0131.\u00a0\u00a0 K\u0131sacas\u0131,\u00a0 krize girerken\u00a0 de\u00a0 \u00e7\u0131karken de d\u00f6viz ba\u015f akt\u00f6r oldu.<\/p>\n<p>Fiili durum\u00a0 belki\u00a0 hi\u00e7bir zaman tam anlam\u0131yla b\u00f6yle olmad\u0131.\u00a0 Ama\u00a0 haf\u0131zalara kay\u0131tl\u0131\u00a0 formasyon bu.\u00a0 Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla\u00a0 Merkez\u00a0 Bankas\u0131\u00a0 ne zaman d\u00f6viz satsa ve rezervler bu nedenle azalsa\u00a0 haf\u0131zalar bu formasyonu\u00a0 \u00f6n belle\u011fe ta\u015f\u0131yor.\u00a0 Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n\u00a0 d\u00f6viz\u00a0 satt\u0131\u011f\u0131\u00a0 haberleri\u00a0 ortal\u0131\u011fa d\u00f6k\u00fcl\u00fcnce\u00a0 yine d\u00f6vizin bitece\u011fi korkusu\u00a0 u\u00e7 veriyor.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4149791613\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Asl\u0131nda b\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar\u0131 yazmam\u0131n bir nedeni var.\u00a0 Yine b\u00f6yle bir duruma\u00a0 kayabilece\u011fimizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcren\u00a0 bir tedirginlik ve kayg\u0131 birikimi olmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 seziyorum. Bir anlamda tarihi korku bir kez daha hortlayabilecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>G\u00fcncel\u00a0 durum\u00a0 ile bu tarihsel\u00a0 &#8220;d\u00f6viz bitecek&#8221; korkusu aras\u0131ndaki ba\u011fda \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00a0 iki nokta var.\u00a0 Bu g\u00fcnk\u00fc Merkez Bankas\u0131 davran\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n tarihsel \u00f6rneklerinden farkl\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.\u00a0\u00a0 G\u00fcncel\u00a0\u00a0 d\u00f6viz\u00a0 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ekonomiyi\u00a0\u00a0 krize g\u00f6t\u00fcrecek\u00a0 bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmenin \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc olmaktan\u00a0 \u00e7ok bir para politikas\u0131 arac\u0131 olarak kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 kan\u0131s\u0131nday\u0131m.\u00a0\u00a0 Bir\u00a0 nokta\u00a0 bu.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00d6te yandan,\u00a0 tedirgin olmaya ba\u015flayan akt\u00f6rler\u00a0 durumun\u00a0 b\u00f6yle\u00a0 oldu\u011funa ikna edilmezse,\u00a0 tarihsel\u00a0 korkunun\u00a0 yay\u0131l\u0131p\u00a0 g\u00fc\u00e7lenece\u011fini\u00a0 bunun da ekonominin\u00a0 d\u00f6viz ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 ve kendisini\u00a0 besleyen\u00a0 bir krize s\u00fcr\u00fcklenme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 seziyorum.\u00a0\u00a0 Bu\u00a0 da ikinci nokta.<\/p>\n<p>Yan\u0131l\u0131yor olabilirim ama bug\u00fcnlerde Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n esas ileti\u015fim probleminin bu oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Son s\u0131ralarda Merkez Bankas\u0131 ile yat\u0131p, Merkez Bankas\u0131 ile kalk\u0131yoruz.\u00a0 Banka adeta\u00a0 g\u00fcnl\u00fck\u00a0 hayat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n i\u00e7ine girmi\u015f durumda.\u00a0 TCMB neredeyse her g\u00fcn d\u00f6vize m\u00fcdahale ediyor. Malum&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9944","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9944","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9944"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9944\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9944"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9944"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9944"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}