{"id":9914,"date":"2012-01-05T14:20:38","date_gmt":"2012-01-05T12:20:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=9914"},"modified":"2012-01-05T14:20:49","modified_gmt":"2012-01-05T12:20:49","slug":"rezervlerin-yeterliligi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/rezervlerin-yeterliligi\/","title":{"rendered":"Rezervlerin Yeterlili\u011fi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n elinde bulunan d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin \u00f6nemini son haftalarda bir kez daha g\u00f6zledik.<br \/>\n90 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015fan d\u00f6viz rezervlerimizle TL&#8217;nin de\u011fer yitirmesini \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in \u00e7ok zorland\u0131k.<br \/>\nOysa bu d\u00f6nemde uluslararas\u0131 piyasalar fazla aktif de de\u011fildi. Buna ra\u011fmen faizleri y\u00fczde 12&#8217;lere \u00e7\u0131kararak TL\/dolar kurunun 1.90&#8217;\u0131 a\u015fmamas\u0131na \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131k. U\u011fra\u015f\u0131 halen de devam ediyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2689236694\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>REZERVLER\u0130M\u0130Z 200 M\u0130LYAR DOLAR OLSAYDI&#8230;<\/strong><br \/>\nD\u00f6viz rezervlerimiz 200 milyar dolar olsayd\u0131 ayn\u0131 zorlanmayla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131p kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmayaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 irdeledi\u011fimizde benim yan\u0131t\u0131m &#8220;hay\u0131r&#8221; olurdu. 200 milyar dolar d\u00f6viz rezerviyle &#8220;isteyen istedi\u011fi kadar d\u00f6viz alabilir&#8221; yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131yla ate\u015f ba\u015ftan s\u00f6nd\u00fcrebilirdi.<br \/>\nAsya krizi y\u00fcksek rezerv biriktirmenin milad\u0131 olarak kabul edilir. Bu b\u00f6lgedeki \u00fclkelerden rezervleri yeterli olanlar\u0131n krizi daha az hasarla atlatmalar\u0131 di\u011fer \u00fclkelere ders oldu.<br \/>\nO tarihten sonra maliyeti y\u00fcksek olsa bile bir\u00e7ok \u00fclke gerek i\u00e7 paralar\u0131n\u0131n fazla de\u011ferlenmesine mani olmak gerekse t\u00fcrb\u00fclansl\u0131 zamanlarda &#8220;namerde mecbur kalmamak&#8221; i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz rezervlerini alabildi\u011fine y\u00fckseltmeye ba\u015flad\u0131.<br \/>\nBiz ise bu treni 2000&#8217;li y\u0131llarda ka\u00e7\u0131rd\u0131k. IMF&#8217;nin \u00f6nerileri ve h\u00fck\u00fcmetin de buna uymas\u0131, Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;na bu olana\u011f\u0131 vermedi.<br \/>\nBu politika sonunda hem TL&#8217;nin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferlenerek cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n yap\u0131sal bir sorun olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na, hem de y\u00fcksek d\u00f6viz rezervi birikmesine mani oldu.<\/p>\n<p><strong>YETERL\u0130L\u0130\u011e\u0130 TARTI\u015eILIYOR<\/strong><br \/>\nMerkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n son g\u00fcnlerdeki yo\u011fun d\u00f6viz sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 &#8220;Acaba rezervlerimiz biter mi?&#8221; sorusunu da beraberinde getirdi.<br \/>\nBir taraftan s\u00fcregiden cari a\u00e7\u0131k, di\u011fer taraftan da Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahaleleri i\u00e7in 25-26 milyar dolar harcayabilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 piyasalar\u0131n akl\u0131n\u0131 biraz kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131.<br \/>\n23 Aral\u0131k 2011 tarihi itibar\u0131yla alt\u0131n hari\u00e7 82.8 milyar dolar br\u00fct d\u00f6viz rezervimiz var. Bu miktar\u0131n y\u00fczde 30 ya da 40&#8217;\u0131n\u0131n cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n finansman\u0131nda ve d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 \u00f6demelerde kullan\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde geriye 50-60 milyar dolar kal\u0131yor.<br \/>\nBunun 50 milyar dolar\u0131n\u0131 da Merkez&#8217;in d\u00f6viz y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerine sayarsan\u0131z, net olarak elimizde fazla bir \u015fey yok gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<br \/>\nPiyasa oyuncular\u0131 ve g\u00f6zlemcilerin konuya bu y\u00f6nden bakt\u0131klar\u0131nda i\u015fimizin zorla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 kesin.<br \/>\nOysa ger\u00e7ek b\u00f6yle de\u011fil.<br \/>\n\u25a0 Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n d\u00f6viz y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri aras\u0131nda yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan i\u015f\u00e7ilerin d\u00f6viz tevdiat hesaplar\u0131 var. Bu hesaplar \u00f6yle fazla oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6steren ya da kriz an\u0131nda \u00e7ekili\u015flere sahne olan hesaplar de\u011fil.<br \/>\n\u25a0 Bankalar\u0131n zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 nedeniyle Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;nda yatan d\u00f6viz mevduatlar\u0131 da istenildi\u011fi an geri al\u0131namaz.<br \/>\n\u25a0 IMF&#8217;ye olan 3.1 milyar dolarl\u0131k d\u00f6viz y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri hemen \u00f6denecek bor\u00e7lardan de\u011fil.<br \/>\nBu durumda Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n net ve br\u00fct rezervleri hemen hemen e\u015fit oluyor. 80 milyar dolar kullan\u0131ma haz\u0131r bir para olarak Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n kasas\u0131nda duruyor.<br \/>\nBunun da \u00f6tesinde T\u00fcrkiye, IMF&#8217;ye d\u00f6nerek yeni bor\u00e7 verme olanaklar\u0131 aras\u0131nda yer alan Esnek Kredi Limiti&#8217;ni (FCL) kullanmak i\u00e7in m\u00fcracaat edebilir. Ya da h\u00fck\u00fcmet isterse yeni bir stand-by anla\u015fmas\u0131 ile IMF&#8217;den kaynak sa\u011flayabilir.<br \/>\nDolay\u0131s\u0131yla rezervlerimizin \u00e7ok rahat olmasa bile, bu a\u015famada yeterli oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesindeyim.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n elinde bulunan d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin \u00f6nemini son haftalarda bir kez daha g\u00f6zledik. 90 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015fan d\u00f6viz rezervlerimizle TL&#8217;nin de\u011fer yitirmesini \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in \u00e7ok&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":418,"featured_media":5395,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9914","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9914","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/418"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9914"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9914\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5395"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9914"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9914"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9914"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}