{"id":9867,"date":"2012-01-05T09:46:37","date_gmt":"2012-01-05T07:46:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=9867"},"modified":"2012-01-05T09:46:49","modified_gmt":"2012-01-05T07:46:49","slug":"merkez%e2%80%99in-politikasinin-yan-etkileri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/merkez%e2%80%99in-politikasinin-yan-etkileri\/","title":{"rendered":"Merkez\u2019in Politikas\u0131n\u0131n Yan Etkileri&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131 d\u00fcn ard arda d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcnd\u00fcr d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131na \u2018do\u011frudan\u2019 m\u00fcdahale etti. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131n\u0131n son haftas\u0131nda \u2018normal g\u00fcn-istisnai\u2019 g\u00fcn diye yepyeni bir kavram ortaya atm\u0131\u015ft\u0131 MB. D\u00f6viz sat\u0131m ihalelerinde 50 milyon dolarl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcnler \u2018normal\u2019 sair g\u00fcnler \u2018istisnai\u2019 olacakt\u0131. \u201cHangi g\u00fcnlerin \u2018istisnai\u2019 oldu\u011funu da bana b\u0131rak\u0131n\u201d demi\u015fti Say\u0131n Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131 konu\u015fmas\u0131nda. O g\u00fcn bug\u00fcnd\u00fcr istisnai g\u00fcnler normal, normal g\u00fcnler istisna oldu!<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-273638879\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u201c\u0130ll\u00e2 benim dedi\u011fim olacak\u201d diyen MB, \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn \u201cD\u00f6viz alacak TL\u2019yi piyasaya (en az\u0131ndan 5.75\u2019ten) vermeyece\u011fim! Bu da faizleri y\u00fckseltecek; d\u00f6vize olan talebi azaltacak, kuru a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 indirecek, b\u00f6ylelikle de enflasyon \u00fczerindeki \u2018kur bask\u0131s\u0131\u2019 azalacak (!)\u201d varsay\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 yap\u0131yor! Yine \u201cbir ta\u015fla, \u2018\u00e7ok\u2019 ku\u015f vurmaya\u201d \u00e7al\u015f\u0131yor. Y\u00fcksek faizle hem kuru, hem de enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrecek! Her ne kadar art\u0131k uygulanmayacak dense de ge\u00e7mi\u015fte \u2018ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 (!)\u2019 olmu\u015f bir strateji bu.<\/p>\n<p>Ancak ortaya yan etkiler \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u0130lk yan etki kamu bor\u00e7lanma maliyetinde g\u00f6r\u00fclecek. Tam da Hazine\u2019nin y\u00fckl\u00fc itfalar\u0131n\u0131n oldu\u011fu ilk \u00e7eyrekte bu yan etki ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kal\u0131nacak. MB\u2019n\u0131n \u2018gayr\u0131 resmi\u2019 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 eninde sonunda bono bile\u015fiklerine yans\u0131yacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ama bug\u00fcn, ama \u00fc\u00e7 vakte kadar! Benim beklentim \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda y\u00fczde 13.20-13.25 band\u0131n\u0131n test edilmesi! Buraya gidilirken de Haziran 2009\u2019daki 12.77-12.65 aras\u0131ndaki \u2018gap-bo\u015fluk\u2019 da; bu vesile ile; kapacakt\u0131r!<\/p>\n<p>\u0130kinci ve bence paha bi\u00e7ilmesi en zor olan \u2018yan etki\u2019 Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u2018erozyona u\u011frayan kredibilitesi\u2019 meselesi. Hani baz\u0131 \u015feyler vard\u0131r \u2018paha bi\u00e7ilemez &#8211; priceless\u2019 dedi\u011fimiz. Mesela insan\u0131n ilk evi. O bir yuvad\u0131r, al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131labilecek bir metadan \u00e7ok! Ya da 7.5 ya\u015f\u0131ndaki k\u0131z\u0131m\u0131n, durup dururken \u2018seni \u00e7ok seviyorum babac\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u2019 demesi gibi. Bir \u00fclkenin merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n kredibilitesi de bence bu denli paha bi\u00e7ilemez. Nas\u0131l ben k\u0131z\u0131m\u0131n \u00fczwerine titriyor, ona zarar gelmemesini istiyorsam, MB\u2019n\u0131n kredibilitesi de ayn\u0131 \u00f6zenle korunmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Zira, Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kredibilitesi, rezervlerinden \u00e7ok daha \u00f6nemlidir. Kredibiliteniz \u00f6ylesine y\u00fcksektir ki, hi\u00e7 bir rezerv turmadan piyasalara istedi\u011finiz y\u00f6n\u00fc verebilirsiniz. Hadi Fed\u2019i ge\u00e7tim, al\u0131n size Bank of England ya da eskinin Bundesbank\u2019\u0131&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Bug\u00fcnlerde yap\u0131lan hatalar\u0131n bedeli kredibilite kayb\u0131na da patlayacak. Mesele \u2018e\u011fitim masraf\u0131\u2019 olarak ya da \u2018e\u011fitim ziyat\u0131\u2019 olarak kayda ge\u00e7ilecek boyuttan daha da \u00f6teye gidiyor olabilir!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131 d\u00fcn ard arda d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcnd\u00fcr d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131na \u2018do\u011frudan\u2019 m\u00fcdahale etti. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131n\u0131n son haftas\u0131nda \u2018normal g\u00fcn-istisnai\u2019 g\u00fcn diye yepyeni bir kavram ortaya atm\u0131\u015ft\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":910,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9867","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9867","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9867"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9867\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9867"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9867"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9867"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}