{"id":9864,"date":"2012-01-05T09:45:38","date_gmt":"2012-01-05T07:45:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=9864"},"modified":"2012-01-05T09:45:48","modified_gmt":"2012-01-05T07:45:48","slug":"2011%e2%80%99de-enflasyon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/2011%e2%80%99de-enflasyon\/","title":{"rendered":"2011\u2019de Enflasyon"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Yeni y\u0131l\u0131n ilk g\u00fcnleri k\u00fcresel mali piyasalar\u0131 sevindirdi. D\u00fcnya borsalar\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. Euro dolara kar\u015f\u0131 az da olsa de\u011fer kazand\u0131. Parite tekrar 1.30\u2019a geldi. Euro b\u00f6lgesinde t\u00fcnelin ucunda \u0131\u015f\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc m\u00fc? \u0130yimserler aras\u0131nda yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m biliniyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1861680890\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130\u00e7eride Merkez Bankas\u0131 mali kesimle bilek g\u00fcre\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Her g\u00fcn d\u00f6viz sat\u0131yor. Ancak, bu \u015fekilde \u00e7ekti\u011fi TL\u2019yi para piyasas\u0131na geri vermiyor. \u0130\u015fin p\u00fcf noktas\u0131 buradad\u0131r. Bankalar\u0131n d\u00f6viz almak i\u00e7in \u00f6nce TL bulmalar\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bilek g\u00fcre\u015finde kim \u00f6nce pes eder? Hangisinin cephanesinin \u00f6nce bitece\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz rezervi mi? Yoksa bankalar\u0131n TL likiditesi mi? Macera filmi gibi; heyecanla izliyorum.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Rekoru bol y\u0131l<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Aral\u0131k enflasyon verileri T\u00dc\u0130K taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. T\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 0,6, y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 10,5 artt\u0131. B\u00f6ylece 2011\u2019de T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin k\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 rekorlara bir rekor daha eklendi. Son yedi y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek y\u0131l sonu t\u00fcketici enflasyonudur.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cY\u0131l sonu\u201d s\u00f6zc\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00f6nemli. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun daha y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu aylar var. 2006\u2019da (temmuz ve eyl\u00fcl), 2007\u2019de (mart-nisan), 2008\u2019de (may\u0131s-kas\u0131m aras\u0131) y\u00fczde 10,5\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Hatta 2008\u2019de y\u00fczde 12\u2019yi bile g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n<p>Ancak enflasyon 2011\u2019de bir ba\u015fka rekor daha k\u0131rd\u0131. Martta y\u0131ll\u0131k t\u00fcketici fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczde 4\u2019e geriledi. \u201cTarihi\u201d s\u00f6zc\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc korkmadan kullanabiliriz. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc son k\u0131rk y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011feridir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu da enflasyon a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan 2011\u2019i ilgin\u00e7 bir y\u0131l yap\u0131yor. Dip ve zirve aras\u0131nda 2.5 kat oynuyor. 2003 bazl\u0131 serinin en sert hareketidir. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafik y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE\u2019nin 2001\u2019deki seyrini bize hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-167020621\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>E\u011filimler de\u011fi\u015fmedi<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Y\u00fckselme e\u011filimi sonbaharda belirginle\u015fti. Kas\u0131m verilerinden sonra t\u00fcketici fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131 \u00e7ift hanede bitirece\u011fini s\u00f6yledim. 2011\u2019in son yaz\u0131s\u0131nda verdi\u011fim tabloda enflasyon i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 10,4 dedim. Yar\u0131m puan \u00fczerinde geldi.<\/p>\n<p>Yeni bilgi var m\u0131? Kas\u0131m\u0131 de\u011ferlendiren yaz\u0131mda y\u00fckseli\u015fi \u00fc\u00e7 d\u0131\u015fsal etkene ba\u011flad\u0131m: G\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131, dolayl\u0131 vergiler ve TL\u2019nin de\u011feri. Ancak fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fini vurgulad\u0131m. Kira art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6rnek verdim.<\/p>\n<p>Aral\u0131k sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 bu analizle uyumlu \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Kirada hem \u00e7\u0131plak y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f hem mevsim etkisi temizlenip y\u0131lland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczde 5 civar\u0131nda yatay seyrediyor. Merakl\u0131s\u0131na not: Kuaf\u00f6r fiyatlar\u0131 da enflasyonu alt\u0131nda ve k\u0131p\u0131rdama yok. Yani nispi fiyatlar de\u011fi\u015fiyor. \u00d6nemli; ayr\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131na girece\u011fim.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1080959459\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bundan sonra ne olur? \u0130lk \u00e7eyrekte \u00e7ift hanede kal\u0131r. Sonras\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. Yani iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrprizlere a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flar. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede 2012 tahminimi (y\u00fczde 6,5) tutuyorum.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yeni y\u0131l\u0131n ilk g\u00fcnleri k\u00fcresel mali piyasalar\u0131 sevindirdi. D\u00fcnya borsalar\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. Euro dolara kar\u015f\u0131 az da olsa de\u011fer kazand\u0131. Parite tekrar 1.30\u2019a geldi. Euro b\u00f6lgesinde&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9864","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9864","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9864"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9864\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9864"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9864"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9864"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}