{"id":9852,"date":"2012-01-05T09:39:43","date_gmt":"2012-01-05T07:39:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=9852"},"modified":"2012-01-05T09:39:54","modified_gmt":"2012-01-05T07:39:54","slug":"maceraya-gerek-var-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/maceraya-gerek-var-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"Maceraya Gerek Var m\u0131?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Enflasyon hedeflemesinden vazge\u00e7mek yerine, onu, g\u00fcn\u00fcn ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 da dikkate alarak g\u00fc\u00e7lendirsek nas\u0131l olur?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1232991310\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Tablo 1\u2019de 2002-2011 d\u00f6neminin enflasyon hedefleri, enflasyon ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeleri ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 yer al\u0131yor. Ar\u0131ca b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin potansiyelinden ve enflasyonun hedeften sapmalar\u0131 da veriliyor. Potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 4.7 olarak ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131 belirteyim. T\u00fcm bu d\u00f6nemi d\u00f6rde ay\u0131rmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn:<br \/>\nBirincisi, enflasyonun hedefin alt\u0131nda ama b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin potansiyelinin \u00fczerinde oldu\u011fu y\u0131llar: Y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme-d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon d\u00f6nemleri: 2002-2005, yani t\u00fcm \u00f6rt\u00fck enflasyon hedefi d\u00f6nemi b\u00f6yle. 2010\u2019da benzer bir \u00f6zellik g\u00f6steriyor.<br \/>\n\u0130kincisi, enflasyonun hedefin \u00fczerinde, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ise ya potansiyeli d\u00fczeyinde ya da alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu y\u0131llar: D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme-y\u00fcksek enflasyon d\u00f6nemleri: 2007-2008. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, enflasyonun hedeften y\u00fcksek, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin de potansiyelinden y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu y\u0131llar: Y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme-y\u00fcksek enflasyon d\u00f6nemleri: 2006 ve 2011.<\/p>\n<p><strong>En ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z y\u0131llar\u00a0<\/strong><br \/>\nD\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, hem enflasyonun hedefin hem de b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin potansiyelinin alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu y\u0131llar: D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme-d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon y\u0131llar\u0131: 2009.<br \/>\nK\u00fcresel krizin en \u015fiddetli ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla normalin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda bir y\u0131l oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in 2009\u2019u bir tarafa b\u0131rakay\u0131m. Bu durumda d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc kategoriye gerek kalm\u0131yor. Birinci kategorinin enflasyon hedeflemesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan en ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 y\u0131llar\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, 2002-2005 ve 2010 y\u0131llar\u0131 di\u011fer y\u0131llara g\u00f6re en ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 y\u0131llar. Bu d\u00f6nemde enflasyon hedeflemesinin kredibilitesinin de artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek gerekiyor. En ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z y\u0131llar ise 2007 ve 2008. Hem hedef tutmuyor, hem de ekonomi potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini yakalayam\u0131yor. 2006 ve 2011 ise arada bir yerde. Ama enflasyon hedeflemesinin kredibilitesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, enflasyon hedeflerinde yukar\u0131ya do\u011fru olu\u015fan b\u00fcy\u00fck sapma, bu y\u0131llar\u0131 da ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z k\u0131l\u0131yor.<br \/>\n2009 d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rak\u0131l\u0131nca enflasyon hedeflemesi uygulanan dokuz y\u0131l var. Bu dokuz y\u0131l\u0131n be\u015finde enflasyon hedeflemesi ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olmu\u015f. Bu tabloya itiraz edebilirsiniz: 2011\u2019de enflasyon hedeflemesi uygulanmad\u0131 ki diyebilirsiniz. Hakl\u0131s\u0131n\u0131z elbette; ben de oraya gelmek istiyordum. Bu durumda enflasyon hedeflemesi uygulanan y\u0131l say\u0131s\u0131 sekize d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 y\u0131l say\u0131s\u0131 ise de\u011fi\u015fmiyor: Be\u015f.<br \/>\nBu y\u0131llar\u0131n hi\u00e7birinde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin finansal kriz ya\u015famad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da hat\u0131rlay\u0131n. Bir de enflasyon hedeflemesinden vazge\u00e7ilirse yerine yeni bir para politikas\u0131 rejimi bulmak gerekti\u011fini dikkate al\u0131n. 2011\u2019deki karma\u015f\u0131k para politikas\u0131n\u0131 da unutmay\u0131n. Bu durumda, enflasyon hedeflemesinden vazge\u00e7mek yerine, onu, g\u00fcn\u00fcn ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 da dikkate alarak g\u00fc\u00e7lendirsek nas\u0131l olur? Neden 2012\u2019de de para politikas\u0131 macera pe\u015finde ko\u015fsun ki? Gerek var m\u0131 sizce?<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/i.radikal.com.tr\/150x113\/2012\/01\/04\/fft16_mf889221.Jpeg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Enflasyon hedeflemesinden vazge\u00e7mek yerine, onu, g\u00fcn\u00fcn ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 da dikkate alarak g\u00fc\u00e7lendirsek nas\u0131l olur? Tablo 1\u2019de 2002-2011 d\u00f6neminin enflasyon hedefleri, enflasyon ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeleri ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 yer&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9852","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9852","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9852"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9852\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9852"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9852"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9852"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}