{"id":9808,"date":"2012-01-04T09:20:04","date_gmt":"2012-01-04T07:20:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=9808"},"modified":"2012-01-04T09:20:13","modified_gmt":"2012-01-04T07:20:13","slug":"dolara-degil-tcmb%e2%80%99ye-mudahele-edin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/dolara-degil-tcmb%e2%80%99ye-mudahele-edin\/","title":{"rendered":"Dolara De\u011fil, TCMB\u2019ye M\u00fcdahele Edin"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk g\u00fcnlerinde her \u015fey oyun plan\u0131ma g\u00f6re cereyan ediyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc verilerle ba\u015flayan rallide acemi bo\u011falara gelecek hafta kucak dans\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131lacak. \u00c7ift haneye \u00e7\u0131kan enflasyon sayesinde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de sosyal huzur bozulacak, bir nesli daha Enflasyon Canvar\u0131\u2019na kurban, AKP\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015fman \u00a0edece\u011fiz.\u00a0 TCMB fuzuli ve nafile d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdaheleleri ile \u201cac\u0131 sonu\u201d benim umdu\u011fumdan \u00e7ok daha \u00e7abuk sahneye koyacak. AKP de elde avu\u00e7ta ne varsa harcayarak, %55 olan reytingini yak\u0131nda CHP\u2019nin bile alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrecek.\u00a0 Alt\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131m vallahi bu.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-209356799\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>PMI ve ISM verileri iyi gelince bo\u011fa avc\u0131lar\u0131 hemen harekete ge\u00e7erek ben yazarkan son aylar\u0131n en co\u015fkulu borsa rallisini sahneliyordu. \u0130yi veri ile piyasalarda kal\u0131c\u0131 ralli olsayd\u0131 ge\u00e7en sene geli\u015fmekte olan piyasalar (GOP) %20 de\u011fer kaybetmez, MSCI World endeksinden be\u015f misli fazla prim yapard\u0131. Haftaya AB krizi yine \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kacak, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Merkel\u2019e g\u00f6re art\u0131k krizi \u00e7\u00f6zmek i\u00e7in gerekli olan her\u015fey yap\u0131ld\u0131. Bundan sonra \u00fcye devletler pa\u015fa pa\u015fa b\u00fct\u00e7e harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 azaltacak, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n da g\u00fcveni geri gelecek ve abra kadabra..kriz bitti.\u00a0 Valla, Merkel herhalde Erdem Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131\u2019dan dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131k al\u0131yor, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc kriz b\u00f6yle bitmez. Aksine, \u0130spanya\u2019ya bak\u0131n. Adamlar kemer s\u0131kt\u0131k\u00e7a b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. Halk zaten yar\u0131ndan umudu kesmi\u015f, AVM\u2019ne u\u011framaz olmu\u015f, bir de maa\u015flar\u0131 filan azalt\u0131rsan, tek yol deflasyon.<\/p>\n<p>Enflasyon \u00e7ift haneye f\u0131rlay\u0131nca, TCMB\u2019nin beti benzi att\u0131, arka kap\u0131dan bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 daha ge\u00e7irdi bize. Art\u0131k bankalara bor\u00e7 verilen paran\u0131n ortalama maliyeti ile \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen politika faizi %9.5. Peki, bu faiz politikas\u0131 ile klasik ayda bir faiz art\u0131rmak aras\u0131nda ne fark var?\u00a0 \u00c7ok fark var.\u00a0 Birincisi, klasik y\u00f6ntemde ekonomide herkes faizin ne oldu\u011funu, ne zaman de\u011fi\u015fece\u011fini az \u00e7ok bilir, ona g\u00f6re plan yapar. Ama TCMB bir de \u201dnormal \u201cistisnai\u201d g\u00fcn ayr\u0131m\u0131 getirdi\u011fi i\u00e7in bu t\u00fcr arka kap\u0131dan faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ekonomide ak\u0131l almaz bir belirsizli\u011fe neden oluyor. Yak\u0131nda, uzun vadeli yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131lamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, mevduat ve kredi fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.\u00a0\u00a0 Tarihe ge\u00e7ecek bir inad\u0131n, bir hesap vermezli\u011fin bedelini toplum \u00f6deyecek. Burdan de\u011ferli AKP\u2019ye kez daha sesleniyorum: Erdem Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131 gitmezse, sizin iktidar elden gidecek.<\/p>\n<p>Yine de TCMB\u2019nin faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k sorunlar\u0131 ile ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen iyi niyetli meslekta\u015flar\u0131m ve k\u00f6\u015fe yazarlar\u0131 var. Onlar\u0131 sevgiyle kucakl\u0131yorum, ve g\u00f6zya\u015flar\u0131 i\u00e7inde vatanseverliklerini kutluyorum. Ama, TCMB\u2019nin arka kap\u0131dan faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 sorunlar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmez. Bunun \u00fc\u00e7 tane nedeni var. Birincisi, ekonomide yeniden dengelenme ve yava\u015flama filan yok. Hepsi hayal mahsulu.\u00a0 \u0130kincisi AKP se\u00e7ime gidecek herhalde, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc elde avu\u00e7ta ne varsa harc\u0131yor. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc TCMB\u2019nin TL\u2019yi savunma hamleleri ile yak\u0131nda d\u00f6vizimiz bitecek ve yine IMF\u2019ye el a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131z.\u00a0 Dolar\/TL 2.25 filan olunca da enflasyon %15\u2019lere t\u0131rmanacak.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ekonomihaberyorum.com\/dolara-degil-tcmb%E2%80%99ye-mudahele-edin\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">BURAYI<\/a> ziyaret ediniz.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk g\u00fcnlerinde her \u015fey oyun plan\u0131ma g\u00f6re cereyan ediyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc verilerle ba\u015flayan rallide acemi bo\u011falara gelecek hafta kucak dans\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131lacak. \u00c7ift haneye \u00e7\u0131kan enflasyon&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":927,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9808","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9808","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9808"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9808\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/927"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9808"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9808"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9808"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}