{"id":9805,"date":"2012-01-04T09:18:46","date_gmt":"2012-01-04T07:18:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=9805"},"modified":"2012-01-04T09:18:54","modified_gmt":"2012-01-04T07:18:54","slug":"merkez-bankasi-ne-yapmaya-calisiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/merkez-bankasi-ne-yapmaya-calisiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ne Yapmaya \u00c7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u00d6nce 350 milyon dolarl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f ihalesi yap\u0131yor. 1.8811 ortalama ile ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen ihale sonras\u0131nda talep devam etti\u011fi i\u00e7in, bu fiyatlar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki al\u0131c\u0131lara do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahale ederek satmaya devam ediyor. Ne kadar satt\u0131\u011f\u0131 muhtelif. Asl\u0131nda \u00f6nemli de de\u011fil art\u0131k!<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2647291360\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>30 Aral\u0131k\u2019tan bu yana ge\u00e7en 3 i\u015f g\u00fcn\u00fcnde 4 milyar dolar m\u0131, 5 milyar dolar m\u0131 satt\u0131 bilinmiyor ancak yap\u0131lan sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n kura etkisi koskocaman bir s\u0131f\u0131r! M\u00fcdahalelerin \u201cetkisiz\u201d olmas\u0131n\u0131n birka\u00e7 sebebi var. \u2018Piyasalar\u0131 y\u00f6netmek\u2019 art\u0131k bir sanat haline geldi! Bu i\u015fte usta de\u011filseniz, kadronuzda \u201ciyi sanat\u00e7\u0131lar\u201d yok ise i\u015finiz ger\u00e7ekten zor! MB\u2019nin elinde de son kadro de\u011fi\u015fikliklerinden sonra bu i\u015fin \u201czanaatk\u00e2rlar\u0131\u201d azalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu ilk sebebi&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>M\u00fcdahalelerin etkisiz olmas\u0131n\u0131n bir ba\u015fka sebebi de \u2018m\u00fcdahale y\u00f6ntemi\u2019. MB\u2019nin m\u00fcdahaleye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada; tamamen \u015fans eseri; bir bankan\u0131n Hazine b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcndeydim, yani \u2018olay mahallindeydim\u2019 . MB\u2019nin m\u00fcdahaleyi 1\u2019er milyon dolarl\u0131k i\u015flemlerle yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6\u011frendim. Bankalar fiyat giriyor, MB fiyat\u0131 \u201cy\u00fcksek bulursa\u201d (nedir y\u00fcksek? 2.20 sepet mi, 1.90 dolar m\u0131?) 1 milyon dolar sat\u0131yor bankaya. Banka kotasyonunu (kurunu) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmezse 1 milyon dolar daha sat\u0131yor ve yeni kotasyonunu istiyor. Banka d\u00fc\u015fmezse, d\u00fc\u015fene kadar 1\u2019er milyonluk sat\u0131\u015flara devam ediyor. E\u011fer banka kotasyonunu d\u00fc\u015fer, ama MB bunu da be\u011fenmezse yine 1 milyon dolar daha sat\u0131yor! Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 \u201cbiteviye\u201d devam ediyor. Kur d\u00fc\u015fmedik\u00e7e m\u00fcdahale uzuyor, bu arada m\u00fcdahaleyi duyan ve kuru kendince uygun bulan \u015firketler de bankan\u0131n Hazine\u2019sini ar\u0131yor ve d\u00f6viz almak istiyorlar! Bankalar da nas\u0131lsa \u2018MB aceleci davranmay\u0131p, yava\u015f yava\u015f sat\u0131yor, m\u00fc\u015fteri taleplerini de m\u00fcdahaleden kar\u015f\u0131lar\u0131z\u2019 diyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu bir y\u00f6ntemdir, do\u011frudur. Ancak bu y\u00f6ntem ancak ve ancak MB elindeki rezervlerle reel ekonominin ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamaya soyunmu\u015fsa kullan\u0131lacak bir y\u00f6ntemdir. Kuru d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek istiyorsan\u0131z fiyat m\u00fcdahalesi yapars\u0131n\u0131z . Bankalar fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 koruyorlarsa, \u2018Bu kurdan ka\u00e7 milyon dolar istiyorsunuz?\u2019 diye sorars\u0131n\u0131z ve bankay\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtacak bir sat\u0131\u015f yapars\u0131n\u0131z. Aksi takdirde piyasan\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fcnde \u201ctedarik\u00e7i\u201d olursunuz ki nitekim son \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcndeki m\u00fcdahalelerde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan durum budur.<\/p>\n<p>MB; Aral\u0131k enflasyonunu (T\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 Aral\u0131k\u2019ta y\u00fczde 0.58 artm\u0131\u015f ve y\u0131l boyu y\u00fczde 5.5 olarak hedeflenen T\u00dcFE oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 10.45 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fm i\u015f. Neredeyse hedefin iki kat\u0131!) ve bir de d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalelerinin i\u015fe yaramad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnce sertle\u015fti! D\u00fcn ekonomistlerle yap\u0131lan toplant\u0131da \u201cbir kez daha\u201d piyasalara yeni mesajlar verdi! Piyasalar\u0131 hamleleriyle \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmak isterken; tam tersine hem kendi hem de piyasalar \u015fa\u015fk\u0131na d\u00f6nd\u00fc! Son kez yap\u0131lan \u2018ekonomistler toplant\u0131s\u0131nda\u2019 29 Aral\u0131k itibar\u0131yla \u201cparasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya\u201d ge\u00e7ildi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015f. Ne demek bu derseniz:<\/p>\n<p>MB nihayet faizleri artt\u0131rd\u0131!<\/p>\n<p>Yanl\u0131\u015f anlamay\u0131n \u201cresmi\u201d olarak de\u011fil. Pratikte artt\u0131rd\u0131. \u0130ster ad\u0131na \u201cpolitika\u201d, isterseniz de Mahfi E\u011filmez\u2019in deyimiyle \u2018Politikac\u0131 faizi\u2019 deyin; 5.75\u2019lik haftal\u0131k faiz oran\u0131 \u00e7ok yak\u0131n bir zamanda \u201cg\u00f6sterge\u201d ve \u201cfonlama\u201d faizi olmayacak! MB; d\u00f6viz sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile \u00e7ekti\u011fi paray\u0131 art\u0131k piyasaya vermeyecek!<\/p>\n<p>MB\u2019nin ifadesiyle art\u0131k 5.75\u2019ten haftal\u0131k para yok! Ya haftal\u0131k \u0130MKB\u2019den ya da ayl\u0131k repolardan y\u00fczde 12 ya da 12.50\u2019ye yak\u0131n oranlardan fonlama yapacak! MB elindeki g\u00fc\u00e7lerden birini kullan\u0131yor: \u201cD\u00f6viz alacak TL\u2019yi piyasaya vermeyece\u011fim! Bu da faizleri y\u00fckseltecek; d\u00f6vize olan talebi azaltacak, kuru a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 indirecek, b\u00f6ylelikle de enflasyon \u00fczerindeki \u201ckur bask\u0131s\u0131\u201d azalacak (!) varsay\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 yap\u0131yor!<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3631431130\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130\u015fe yarar m\u0131? K\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7in evet.<\/p>\n<p>Yan etkileri mi dediniz? Ona da yar\u0131nki yaz\u0131mda de\u011finece\u011fim&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00d6nce 350 milyon dolarl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f ihalesi yap\u0131yor. 1.8811 ortalama ile ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen ihale sonras\u0131nda talep devam etti\u011fi i\u00e7in, bu fiyatlar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki al\u0131c\u0131lara do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahale ederek satmaya&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":910,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9805","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9805","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9805"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9805\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9805"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9805"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9805"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}