{"id":9796,"date":"2012-01-04T09:15:37","date_gmt":"2012-01-04T07:15:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=9796"},"modified":"2012-01-04T09:15:44","modified_gmt":"2012-01-04T07:15:44","slug":"gorus-mesafesi-kisaliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/gorus-mesafesi-kisaliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f Mesafesi K\u0131sal\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131ndaki etkinli\u011fini s\u00fcrpriz denebilecek \u015fekilde art\u0131rmas\u0131 kafalar\u0131 kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131, belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 genelinde d\u00f6viz sat\u0131m ihalelerine gelen teklifin olduk\u00e7a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layan para otoritesinin 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n son i\u015f g\u00fcn\u00fcnde hem 3 milyar dolar d\u00fczeyinde bir sat\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131, hem de daha \u00f6nceki s\u00f6ylemlerini tekzip edercesine oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rarak seviyeye m\u00fcdahale etmesi alg\u0131lamalar\u0131n olumsuz y\u00f6nde farkl\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131nda etkili oldu.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4029197096\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Geride b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z senenin ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n de\u011ferinde ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmeleri ve para otoritesinden gelen m\u00fcdahaleleri hat\u0131rlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda evdeki hesaplar\u0131n \u00e7ar\u015f\u0131ya uymad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. S\u00f6zel m\u00fcdahaleler, ihale ile veya do\u011frudan d\u00f6viz sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve faizlerde ya\u015fanan y\u00fckseli\u015fler T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131&#8217;nda ya\u015fanan de\u011fer kayb\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki e\u011filimin kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131nda ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olamam\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Durum b\u00f6yle olamam\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Durum b\u00f6yle olunca gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik beklentilerin olumsuzla\u015fmas\u0131 ve g\u00fcvensizli\u011fin b\u00fc\u00fcymesi engellenemiyor, belirsizlik ve k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k art\u0131yor. Bu sonu\u00e7ta d\u0131\u015f piyasalarda etkili olan riskten ka\u00e7\u0131nma e\u011filimi kadar i\u00e7erideki birikmi\u015f sorunlar ve dengesizliklerin belirleyici oldu\u011funu dikkate almak gerekiyor. Mevcut ko\u015fullarda T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin tasarruf a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 makul d\u00fczeylere \u00e7ekemeyece\u011fi ve yumu\u015fak ini\u015f \u015fans\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki beklentilerin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi olumlu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeyi zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>2011 y\u0131l\u0131 ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n s\u00f6ylemi olduk\u00e7a farkl\u0131 idi. Enflasyonist bir tehlike olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 dile getiriliyor, \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fclen iki farkl\u0131 senaryodan hareketle faizlerin y\u00fckselmeyece\u011fi ve para politikas\u0131n\u0131n gev\u015feyece\u011fi y\u00f6nde sinyaller veriliyordu. Enflasyonda ge\u00e7ici bir y\u00fckseli\u015f ya\u015fanacakt\u0131, fakat 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 son \u00e7eyre\u011finde yeniden gerileme e\u011filimi g\u00fcndeme gelecek ve hedeften sapma olduk\u00e7a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalacakt\u0131. S\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nemde k\u00fcresel d\u00fczeyde emtia fiyatlar\u0131 ile T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n ters y\u00f6nde harekt ederek birbirlerni dengeleyece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131 kanaati \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan eylem ve s\u00f6ylemin gerek\u00e7esi niteli\u011finde idi. Fakat olmad\u0131, beklentilerin bu \u00e7izgiden uzakla\u015fmas\u0131 engellenemedi.<\/p>\n<p>Dolar\u0131n T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131&#8217;na kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011feri 1.70&#8217;leri a\u015f\u0131nca d\u00f6viz al\u0131mlar\u0131nda rafa kalkt\u0131, yerini d\u00f6viz sat\u0131m ihalelerine b\u0131rakt\u0131. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n y\u00fczde 5-10 kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011ferli hale geldi\u011fi, daha fazla de\u011fer kaybetmesine grek olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylendi. Buna ra\u011fmen beklentilerin bozulmas\u0131 ve de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n devam etmesi \u00f6nlenemeyince \u00f6nce sat\u0131m ihalelerinde miktar art\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131, do\u011frudan sat\u0131mlar devreye girdi, rezerv kayb\u0131n\u0131 telafi etmek ad\u0131na T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 cinsi zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n d\u00f6viz olarak tutulabilmesine imk\u00e2n tan\u0131nd\u0131. Dolar kuru yine yukar\u0131 hareketlenip 1.90 seviyelerini test etmeye ba\u015flay\u0131nca kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda faizlerin y\u00fckseltilmesi g\u00fcndeme geldi, ancak riskten ka\u00e7\u0131nma e\u011filiminin kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olamad\u0131. 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 para ve d\u00f6viz kuru politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin sunum ve a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda belirsizli\u011fi azalmay\u0131nca yaz\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda belirtti\u011fimiz 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n son i\u015f g\u00fcn\u00fcndeki 3 milyar olarl\u0131k toplam sat\u0131\u015f g\u00fcndeme geldi, oynakl\u0131k artt\u0131, ancak kur geriletildi\u011fi yerde durmad\u0131; T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n en \u00e7ok de\u011fer kaybedenler s\u0131ralamas\u0131nda birincilikten ikincili\u011fe gerilemesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabildi.<\/p>\n<p>Ge\u00e7en senenin enflasyon rakam\u0131 ise hedeflenenin iki kat\u0131n\u0131 a\u015farak y\u00fczde 10.45&#8217;e y\u00fckseldi\u011fi tescil edildi. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f y\u0131llardaki hesaps\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n neden oldu\u011fu a\u011f\u0131rla\u015fm\u0131\u015f sorunlar ve dengesizlikler son alt\u0131 aydaki olumsuzluklar\u0131n sebebi olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Beklentilerin bozulmas\u0131 engellenemedi. Y\u00fckselen belirsizlik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f mesafesini k\u0131saltt\u0131, tedbirli olma ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Belli ki kredi hacmindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131na almakta ge\u00e7 ve yetersiz kalm\u0131\u015f\u0131z&#8230; Tepkisiz kal\u0131narak izin verilen a\u015f\u0131r\u0131l\u0131klar, ileti\u015fim politikas\u0131 ile dengelenememi\u015f&#8230; T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 \u00f6nlemlere ra\u011fmen de\u011fer kaybetmeye devam etmesi d\u0131\u015f piyasalardaki olumsuzluk ile bir araya gelince g\u00fcvensizlik geli\u015fmi\u015f&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Bu saatten sonra Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n finansal istikrar s\u00f6ylemini rafa kald\u0131r\u0131p fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kararak sadece enflasyona odaklanmas\u0131 ne kadar ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olur bilemiyoruz; ancak b\u00f6yle bir tercih yumu\u015fak ini\u015f \u015fans\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcketildi\u011finin kabul edilmi\u015f olmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor olabilir. B\u00fcy\u00fcyemedi\u011fi halde cari a\u00e7\u011f\u0131n makul seviyelere gelemedi\u011fi bir ekonomide salt enflasyona odaklanman\u0131n yarataca\u011f\u0131 sars\u0131nt\u0131lar ciddi s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar yaratabilir&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131ndaki etkinli\u011fini s\u00fcrpriz denebilecek \u015fekilde art\u0131rmas\u0131 kafalar\u0131 kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131, belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 genelinde d\u00f6viz sat\u0131m ihalelerine gelen teklifin olduk\u00e7a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":931,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9796","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9796","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/21"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9796"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9796\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/931"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9796"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9796"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9796"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}