{"id":9790,"date":"2012-01-04T09:08:15","date_gmt":"2012-01-04T07:08:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=9790"},"modified":"2012-01-04T09:08:23","modified_gmt":"2012-01-04T07:08:23","slug":"enflasyonda-psikolojik-esik-asildi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/enflasyonda-psikolojik-esik-asildi\/","title":{"rendered":"Enflasyonda &#8220;Psikolojik E\u015fik&#8221; A\u015f\u0131ld\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 enflasyonu T\u00fcfe&#8217;de y\u00fczde 0.58 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fince 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 enflasyonu t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131yla y\u00fczde 10.45 olarak \u00e7ift haneye y\u00fckseldi ve &#8220;Psikolojik e\u015fik&#8221; y\u00fczde 10 seviyesini a\u015ft\u0131. Enflasyonu yeniden tart\u0131\u015fma g\u00fcndemimize soktu. 2012&#8217;nin y\u00fczde 5.2&#8217;lik enflasyon hedefinin<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3802753985\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Tutturulabilmesi i\u00e7in hem k\u00fcresel kriz r\u00fczgar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcnyada ve Avrupa&#8217;da son bulmas\u0131 ile ba\u015fta petrol olmak \u00fczere emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli y\u00fckselme olmay\u0131\u015f\u0131na ve \u00fclkemizde kur y\u00fckseli\u015finin frenlenmesine ba\u011fl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 enflasyonu a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda &#8220;Aylard\u0131r yazmad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z konu: Enflasyon&#8221; ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 yaz\u0131mda Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 T\u00fcfe rakam\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131f\u0131r olmamas\u0131 halinde 2011 t\u00fcketici enflasyonunun &#8220;Psikolojik e\u015fik&#8221; olan \u00e7ift haneyi a\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmi\u015ftim. D\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 enflasyonu ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 0.58 olunca, 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonu T\u00dcFE&#8217;de y\u00fczde 10.45 olarak \u00e7ift haneli ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftir. B\u00f6ylece bu y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131nda \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u00fczde 5&#8217;lik hedefte 2012-14 Orta Vadeli Program\u0131n 7.8&#8217;lik hedefi de, Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n revize etti\u011fi y\u00fczde 8.3&#8217;l\u00fck hedefte a\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f oldu. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 1 artan \u00dcFE&#8217;de \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k 13.33 oran\u0131na ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 sonucunu getirdi.<\/p>\n<p>Enflasyon 19 ay aradan sonra 2010 Nisan ay\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 10.19&#8217;dan sonra,\u00a0 yeniden \u00e7ift haneyi g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, 2011 Mart&#8217;\u0131nda y\u00fczde 4&#8217;\u00fcn alt\u0131na indikten sonra, son aylarda kurdaki y\u00fckseli\u015f ve emtia fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n etkisiyle 2008 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n Kas\u0131m ay\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 10.76&#8217;dan sonra, son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. B\u00f6ylece uzun s\u00fcredir unuttu\u011fumuz enflasyon konusu yeniden g\u00fcndemimize, tart\u0131\u015fma ortam\u0131m\u0131za oturdu. Yap\u0131lan de\u011ferlendirmelerde enflasyondaki bu h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ve 2011 i\u00e7in beklenenin iki kat\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmenin i\u00e7ersinde art\u0131\u015f\u0131n y\u00fczde 4 kadar\u0131na kur art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n, y\u00fczde 1 kadar\u0131na emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n neden oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor. Kur art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ncelikli olarak \u00dcFE&#8217;de etkisinin g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, \u00e7ift hanenin \u00f6nce Ocak 2011&#8217;de \u00dcFE&#8217;de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, Nisan-May\u0131s&#8217;ta tek haneye indikten sonra Haziran&#8217;dan ba\u015flayarak y\u00fckseldi\u011fi ve son iki \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fckseli\u015fin daha da h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi g\u00f6zleniyor.<\/p>\n<p>2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda enflasyonun tek haneye inmesinin kurda art\u0131\u015f\u0131n son bulmas\u0131 ya da gerilemesi ile \u00f6zellikle petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli art\u0131\u015f olmamas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Yap\u0131lan tahminlerde ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n y\u00fczde 1&#8217;in alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen ilk d\u00f6rt ayl\u0131k d\u00f6neminde baz etkisiyle enflasyonun y\u00fckseli\u015finin s\u00fcrece\u011fi ve y\u00fczde 10&#8217;un \u00fczerinde seyredece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n tahmini de o y\u00f6nde. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l May\u0131s ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2.4&#8217;l\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015f nedeniyle bu y\u0131l o ayda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydedilebilece\u011fi, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na kadar baz etkisiyle y\u00fckseli\u015f olduktan sonra, y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde yeniden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7ebilece\u011fi belirtiliyor. 2012 hedefinin tutturulabilmesinin ise, y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde Ekim-Kas\u0131m enflasyonunun bu y\u0131l\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131na inmesiyle m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>G\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi, mali disipline ve b\u00fct\u00e7e disiplinine ra\u011fmen kur ve emtia fiyatlar\u0131 etkisiyle \u00e7ift haneye y\u00fckselen enflasyonun, yeniden hedeflenen y\u00fczde 5&#8217;ler seviyesine inebilmesi i\u00e7in \u00f6ncelikle kurdaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin frenlenmesi, d\u00fcnyada esen kriz r\u00fczgar\u0131n\u0131n son bulmas\u0131, ba\u015fta petrol olmak \u00fczere emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli art\u0131\u015f olmamas\u0131 gerekiyor. Ayr\u0131ca,\u00a0 yurt i\u00e7inde de 2010 Kas\u0131m&#8217;\u0131ndan bu yana TL&#8217;nin y\u00fczde 30&#8217;luk de\u011fer kayb\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak temel mal fiyatlardaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n kur art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n frenlenmesi ile durmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6zleniyor.<\/p>\n<p>Do\u011fal olarak 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 enflasyonunun tek haneye gerilemesi \u00e7ok zor g\u00f6r\u00fclmese de, hedeflenen y\u00fczde 5.2&#8217;lik enflasyona ula\u015f\u0131labilmesi hem d\u0131\u015f konjonkt\u00fcrdeki olumlu geli\u015fmelere, hem de \u00fclkemizde belli beklentilerin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesine \u00e7ok y\u00f6nl\u00fc fakt\u00f6r\u00fcn iyile\u015fmesine ba\u011fl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4251878261\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 enflasyonu T\u00fcfe&#8217;de y\u00fczde 0.58 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fince 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 enflasyonu t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131yla y\u00fczde 10.45 olarak \u00e7ift haneye y\u00fckseldi ve &#8220;Psikolojik e\u015fik&#8221; y\u00fczde&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":903,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9790","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9790","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/22"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9790"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9790\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/903"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9790"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9790"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9790"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}