{"id":9644,"date":"2012-01-02T09:16:33","date_gmt":"2012-01-02T07:16:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=9644"},"modified":"2012-01-02T09:16:43","modified_gmt":"2012-01-02T07:16:43","slug":"dolar-ilk-yarida-2-lirayi-rahat-gecer-altin-duser","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/dolar-ilk-yarida-2-lirayi-rahat-gecer-altin-duser\/","title":{"rendered":"Dolar ilk yar\u0131da 2 liray\u0131 rahat ge\u00e7er, alt\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fer"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Avrupa\u2019daki bor\u00e7 krizini yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fimiz 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda finansal sekt\u00f6r \u00e7ok istemese de yava\u015f yava\u015f kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 i\u015flemler ya da kald\u0131ra\u00e7 oranlar\u0131 azalacak, azalt\u0131lacak. Piyasalarla ilgili tahminlerime gelirsek, dolar b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla Mart-May\u0131s d\u00f6neminde 2.0650-2.0800 TL band\u0131na y\u00fckselecek. Y\u0131l i\u00e7inde \u2018d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u2019 1.7250 seviyeleriyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalacak. Alt\u0131n\u0131n onsu ise \u00f6nce 1.415 ard\u0131ndan da 1.280-1.340 dolar seviyelerine gerileyecek. Sonras\u0131nda alt\u0131n\u0131n onsunda yeniden 2 bin dolarlar\u0131 konu\u015fuyor olaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2781362401\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Finansal piyasalarla ilgili g\u00fcnl\u00fck yaz\u0131lar yazmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131mdan bu yana her yeni gelen y\u0131l i\u00e7in bir isim koymay\u0131 adet edindim. \u2018Emtia Y\u0131l\u0131\u2019, \u2018Pansuman Y\u0131l\u0131\u2019 ilk akl\u0131ma gelenler. Bu y\u0131l i\u00e7inde uygun buldu\u011fum isim \u201c\u0130ndire\u00e7 Y\u0131l\u0131\u201d oldu. T\u00fcrk Dil Kurumuna bakt\u0131m, b\u00f6yle bir kelime yok! Kald\u0131ra\u00e7\u0131n z\u0131t anlaml\u0131s\u0131 ne diye bakt\u0131m, o da yoktu! Ben de kendimce kad\u0131ra\u00e7\u0131n tersi olarak t\u00fcrettim \u2018indire\u00e7\u2019 kelimesini. Kast\u0131m\u0131n ne oldu\u011funa gelince&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>1990\u2019l\u0131 y\u0131llar\u0131n ortas\u0131ndan bu yana finansal piyasalarda en fazla duyulan, kullan\u0131lan kelimelerin ba\u015f\u0131nda \u2018kald\u0131ra\u00e7-leverage\u2019 geliyordur herhalde. Sermayenizin 3-5 kat\u0131 kredi kullanarak i\u015f yapmak, hatta kriz \u00f6ncesi 10-15 kat\u0131na kadar \u2018kald\u0131ra\u00e7\u2019 kullanmak s\u0131radan bir durumdu. Yat\u0131r\u0131m bankalar\u0131n\u0131n 30-40 kat \u2018kald\u0131ra\u00e7\u2019 kullanmas\u0131 de\u011fil miydi k\u00fcresel krizi haz\u0131rlayan etkenlerin ba\u015fl\u0131cas\u0131?<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi s\u0131ra bu kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 i\u015flemlerin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131na geldi! 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 finansal sekt\u00f6r \u00e7ok istemese de yava\u015f yava\u015f kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 i\u015flemleri ya da kald\u0131ra\u00e7 oranlar\u0131 azalacak, azalt\u0131lacak. Bu y\u0131l kald\u0131ra\u00e7\u0131n tersi, \u2018\u0130ndire\u00e7 deleverage- Y\u0131l\u0131\u2019 olacak. Her ne kadar siyasi otoriteler bunu \u00e7ok istemeseler, merkez bankalar\u0131 da likidite vermeye devam etse de \u00f6zellikle Avrupa bankalar\u0131n\u0131n sermaye ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131, ayakta kalma \u00e7abalar\u0131, gelece\u011fe g\u00fcven duymayan t\u00fcketicinin kabu\u011funa \u00e7ekilmesi bu s\u00fcreci h\u0131zland\u0131racakt\u0131r. \u0130ndire\u00e7 s\u00fcreci temel olarak Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131 bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 olacak.<\/p>\n<p>AB bankalar\u0131n\u0131n \u015fu anda ihtiya\u00e7 duyduklar\u0131 sermaye miktar\u0131 130 (+\/- 10) milyar euro olarak hesapland\u0131 ge\u00e7enlerde. \u00dcstelik bu rakam\u0131n i\u00e7inde ne AB \u00fclkelerinin not indirimleri (ve bunun yarataca\u011f\u0131 ek maliyet) ne de Yunanistan, \u0130rlanda v.b. \u00fclkelerden bir veya birka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131n bor\u00e7lar\u0131nda ger\u00e7ek anlamda tenzilata gidilmesi (haircut) yok. Di\u011fer yandan y\u00fczde 7 ile bor\u00e7lan\u0131p \u2018b\u00fcy\u00fcyemeyen\u2019 \u0130talya \u00f6rne\u011finde oldu\u011fu gibi bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fcn ta\u015f\u0131namaz hale gelmesi de hesaplamalarda, \u2018stres testlerinde\u2019 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n<p>AB\u2019den ba\u015flayan bir \u2018indire\u00e7\u2019 s\u00fcreciyle; bilan\u00e7olar k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclecek, risk hevesi ister istemez azalacak. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n hemen herkesin \u201cMerkez bankalar\u0131 3 y\u0131la kadar likidite veriyorlar, ortada \u00e7ok para var, bu olmaz!\u201d dedi\u011fini duyar gibi oluyorum. Do\u011frudur merkez bankalar\u0131 likidite veriyorlar vermesine de bu para ekonomiye girmiyor, \u00e7arklar\u0131 \u2018ya\u011flam\u0131yor\u2019, yine bankalar\u0131n merkez bankalar\u0131ndaki hesaplar\u0131nda duruyor. Hatta de\u011fil reel ekonomiye girmesi, bankalararas\u0131 para piyasas\u0131na bile girmiyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc halen daha kimin sa\u011f salim, kimin batak oldu\u011fu belli de\u011fil. Bu belirsizlik de \u2018indire\u00e7\u2019 s\u00fcrecini besleyecek bir fakt\u00f6r. Bu durum hem AB\u2019yi hem de \u2018\u00e7evresindeki\u2019 hemen her yeri etkileyecek! AB\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin s\u0131rf bu nedenle \u2018s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131nsama\u2019 ihtimali \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme, hatta \u00e7eyrekler itibariyle k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme\/resesyon bir yandan i\u015fsizli\u011fi artt\u0131r\u0131rken, di\u011fer yandan da AB\u2019de t\u00fcketici g\u00fcvenini \u00f6rseleyecektir.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin de bundan etkilemesi ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz ! Cari a\u00e7\u0131k finansman\u0131 konusundaki en ciddi \u2018fon sa\u011flay\u0131c\u0131m\u0131z\u2019 Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131n belaya girmesi, bizim zorlanmam\u0131z anlam\u0131na gelecektir . Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l temin etti\u011fimiz finansman seviyesini tutturmakta zorlanaca\u011f\u0131z. OVP\u2019de konulan b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefleri yeni finansman ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 da beraberinde getirecek! Ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki bor\u00e7lanmalar\u0131 uzatt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z var sayarsak bu y\u0131lki ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131n temininde sorunlar ya\u015fayabiliriz! Diyelim ki merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 likidite piyasalara girdi ve bize kadar da ula\u015ft\u0131. Bu sefer de maliyet a\u00e7mac\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalaca\u011f\u0131z. \u0130ndire\u00e7 s\u00fcreci fon sa\u011flay\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u2018se\u00e7ici\u2019 davranmalar\u0131na sebep olacakt\u0131r. Bu se\u00e7ici davran\u0131\u015f, belki miktar\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fmese de \u2018fonlama maliyetini\u2019 art\u0131racakt\u0131r .<\/p>\n<p>Finansal cepheden gelecek bu dalgan\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra yeni y\u0131lda bizleri bekleyen ve \u2018fiyatlanacak\u2019 bir ka\u00e7 noktay\u0131 daha payla\u015fmakta fayda var:<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2713344688\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130\u00e7eride:<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \u2018Yeni Anayasa\u2019 tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve olas\u0131 referandum, g\u00fcndemi ekonomiden uzakla\u015ft\u0131racakt\u0131r,<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \u0130ran, Irak meselesi \u00e7ok ciddi enerji harcanmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektirecek. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda Suriye, ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndan itibaren de \u0130ran-Irak-\u0130srail anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131 piyasalarca fiyatlanmaya ba\u015flayacak . (Petrol fiyatlar\u0131)<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n nominal olarak daralmas\u0131 zor, bu y\u0131l\u0131n kapan\u0131\u015f rakam\u0131, gelecek y\u0131l\u0131n da rakam\u0131 olmaya aday!<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1504393184\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&#8211; Gelecek y\u0131l b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00e7ok dalgal\u0131 bir seyir izleyecek: ilk \u00e7eyrek bir\u00e7ok beklentinin aksine pozitif, ancak ikinci ve \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek \u2018negatif\u2019 b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131na \u015fahit olabiliriz. Son \u00e7eyrek toparlanma g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Merkez Bankas\u0131 bir d\u00f6nem \u2018politika faizi\u2019 konusunda esneyecek! Faiz artt\u0131rmak zorunda kal \u0131rsa da bunu \u2018kabul edilebilir\u2019 arg\u00fcmanlarla ortaya koymakta zorlanacak!<\/p>\n<p>D\u0131\u015far\u0131da:<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; ABD\u2019de ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imi d\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fcndemini i\u015fgal edecek. \u201cTea Party\u201d ABD\u2019deki 3. Parti olarak riski art\u0131racak!<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Fed III.BPP\u2019yi a\u00e7\u0131klamayacak ama \u00e7ok benzeri ad\u0131mlar atacak! ECB \u00e7aresizlik ve beceriksizlik aras\u0131nda gidip gelecek!<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \u0130ran meselesi \u2018alevlenecek\u2019 olur ise petrol fiyatlar\u0131 \u2018dalga boylar\u0131 y\u00fcksek\u2019 bir seyir izleyecek. Her hal\u00fck\u00e2rda petrol i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir y\u0131l olacak. Bir yandan d\u00fc\u015fen talep, di\u011fer yandan \u2018H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019 hep g\u00fcndemde olacak . (H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u2019n \u0131n bir k\u0131y\u0131s\u0131nda \u0130ran, di\u011fer k\u0131y\u0131s\u0131nda 7 \u00fclke. Her an artabilecek bir stres. Sava\u015f ihtimali halen daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck . Ancak petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebilecek gerginlikler daha s\u0131k aral\u0131klara ya\u015fan acak.)<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Merkez bankalar\u0131ndan faiz indirimleri gelecek, \u2018kur sava\u015flar\u0131\u2019 ba\u015fka bir boyut kazanacak!<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Euro da\u011f\u0131lmayacak! Ancak ciddi oranda \u2018g\u00fcven ve de\u011fer\u2019 kaybedecek!<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Arap bahar\u0131 k\u0131sa vadede \u2018yaza\u2019 d\u00f6nece\u011fe benzemiyor!<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; AB\u2019de Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n borcu \u2018yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lacak\u2019, genele yay\u0131lan bir \u2018bor\u00e7 silme ya da vade uzatma\u2019 dalgas\u0131 ya\u015fanacak!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Avrupa\u2019daki bor\u00e7 krizini yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fimiz 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda finansal sekt\u00f6r \u00e7ok istemese de yava\u015f yava\u015f kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 i\u015flemler ya da kald\u0131ra\u00e7 oranlar\u0131 azalacak, azalt\u0131lacak. Piyasalarla ilgili tahminlerime&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":910,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9644","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9644","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9644"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9644\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9644"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9644"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9644"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}