{"id":9634,"date":"2012-01-01T14:10:54","date_gmt":"2012-01-01T12:10:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=9634"},"modified":"2012-01-01T18:41:51","modified_gmt":"2012-01-01T16:41:51","slug":"2012-tahminleri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/2012-tahminleri\/","title":{"rendered":"2012 Tahminleri"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Y\u0131la tahmin vererek ba\u015flama gelene\u011fine geri d\u00f6n\u00fcyorum. 2011 istisna idi. \u0130\u00e7 konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fcn y\u00f6n\u00fc belirsizdi. Kestirmekte zorland\u0131m. Sonu\u00e7lar beni hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. \u00d6yle durmuyor ama bence 2012\u2019de i\u00e7eride belirsizlik azald\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-24460175\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ayn\u0131 \u015feyi d\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in s\u00f6yleyemiyorum. \u201cSert ini\u015f\u201d ihtimalinin y\u00fckseldi\u011fini daha \u00f6nce yazd\u0131m. Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in o kadar karamsar de\u011filim. Son kararlar ve uygulama do\u011fru y\u00f6ndedir. Beni \u00c7in\u2019de biriken sorunlar tedirgin ediyor.<\/p>\n<p>Do\u011fal olarak, k\u00fcresel ekonominin ve mali piyasalar\u0131n seyri T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi etkileyecektir. Ancak i\u00e7 dinamikleri hafife alamay\u0131z. 2011 \u00e7ok iyi \u00f6rnektir. Euro krizine ra\u011fmen \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme tarihi bir rekor k\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>2012\u2019in i\u015fimizi kolayla\u015ft\u0131ran \u00f6nemli bir fark\u0131 var. Ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin ge\u00e7en y\u0131l devreye soktu\u011fu yeni iktisat politikas\u0131 oturmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Yava\u015f yava\u015f sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Yak\u0131n gelece\u011fi daha g\u00fcvenle tahmin etmeyi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>E\u011filimler biliniyor<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>2012 dengeli (s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir) b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ge\u00e7i\u015f y\u0131l\u0131d\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile 2012\u2019de i\u00e7 talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda yava\u015flama ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmazd\u0131r. \u00d6zellikle \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim ve yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131nda hissedilir. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi bunlar besledi. 2012\u2019de yatay seyreder.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u00e7 talebin yava\u015flamas\u0131 d\u0131\u015f dengeyi olumlu etkiler. D\u0131\u015f ko\u015fullar\u0131n ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k mal-hizmet ithalat\u0131 geriler. Yani d\u0131\u015f dengede ciddi bir toparlanma ger\u00e7ekle\u015fir. D\u0131\u015f talep b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye art\u0131 katk\u0131 yapar.<\/p>\n<p>Enflasyonda iki z\u0131t etki \u00e7arp\u0131\u015facakt\u0131r. Nisbi fiyatlara yans\u0131r. TL\u2019de de\u011fer kayb\u0131 mal fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 \u00e7eker. Zay\u0131f i\u00e7 talep ise hizmet fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlar. Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n analizine kat\u0131l\u0131yorum. Y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE \u00f6nce \u00e7ift hanede dalgalan\u0131r, sonra d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7er.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3435881743\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130ktisat politikas\u0131nda yenilik beklemiyorum. B\u00fct\u00e7e disiplini s\u00fcrer ama a\u00e7\u0131k 2011\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kar. Para politikas\u0131 uzun ve tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 bir konu; ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131na nas\u0131l olsa y\u0131l i\u00e7inde girece\u011fim. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00e7er\u00e7eve i\u00e7inde kalacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Ya d\u00f6viz kuru? \u0130\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f ko\u015fullar a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferli TL d\u00f6neminin bitti\u011fine i\u015faret ediy\u0131or. \u201c0.5 $ + 0.5 euro\u201d d\u00f6viz sepeti y\u0131l\u0131 2.20 TL\u2019de bitirdi. 2012 ortalamas\u0131 bu d\u00fczeyde olu\u015fur. \u0130ki y\u00f6nde 20 kuru\u015fa ula\u015fan dalgalar muhtemeldir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ekodiyalog iyimser<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Ekodiyalog ekibi ge\u00e7en hafta CNBCe\u2019de boy g\u00f6sterdi. \u00d6nce 2011 tart\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131ld\u0131. Sonra 2012 tahminleri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Bu y\u0131l Mahfi E\u011filmez tahmin vermedi. Neden sorunusu \u201c2008\u2019de vermedim kriz oldu\u201d \u015feklinde cevaplad\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1835623922\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7lar tabloda. Aral\u0131k tahminlerin (\u00f6rnek: y\u00fczde 7-8 aras\u0131) orta noktas\u0131n\u0131 ald\u0131m. En alt sat\u0131rda be\u015f tahminin ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 hesaplad\u0131m. \u00d6zet: b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 4.4; enflasyon y\u00fczde 7.1; cari a\u00e7\u0131k y\u00fczde 6.9; dolar kuru 1.89 TL.<\/p>\n<p>Bu say\u0131lar Ekodiyalog ekibini piyasadan daha iyimser yap\u0131yor. Kim hakl\u0131? Yaza do\u011fru netlik kazan\u0131r. Gelecek y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131nda hesap sormak isteyenlere tabloyu saklamalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyorum.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/111230-tahmin6400_hlarge.jpg\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-9639\" title=\"111230-tahmin6400_hlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/111230-tahmin6400_hlarge.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"475\" height=\"273\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/111230-tahmin6400_hlarge.jpg 475w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/111230-tahmin6400_hlarge-300x172.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 475px) 100vw, 475px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Y\u0131la tahmin vererek ba\u015flama gelene\u011fine geri d\u00f6n\u00fcyorum. 2011 istisna idi. \u0130\u00e7 konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fcn y\u00f6n\u00fc belirsizdi. Kestirmekte zorland\u0131m. Sonu\u00e7lar beni hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. \u00d6yle durmuyor ama bence 2012\u2019de&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9634","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9634","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9634"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9634\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9634"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9634"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9634"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}