{"id":9615,"date":"2011-12-31T10:00:44","date_gmt":"2011-12-31T08:00:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=9615"},"modified":"2011-12-31T10:00:52","modified_gmt":"2011-12-31T08:00:52","slug":"2011-tahminlerimin-muhasebesi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/2011-tahminlerimin-muhasebesi\/","title":{"rendered":"2011 Tahminlerimin Muhasebesi&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>2011 y\u0131l\u0131na \u201cemtia y\u0131l\u0131\u201d ad\u0131n\u0131 vermi\u015ftim. Para arz\u0131n\u0131n \u201cs\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z\u201d artmas\u0131n\u0131n enflasyona, bunun da emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda ekstra bir y\u00fckselmeye yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsaym\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. [Alt\u0131n ve \u00f6zellikle g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, ba\u015fta end\u00fcstriyel metaller olmak \u00fczere genel emtia fiyat seviyesinde y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131na g\u00f6re gerileme oldu!]<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1893321104\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>BPP III-IV-&#8230; ABD\u2019deki konut fiyatlar\u0131nda istenen toparlanma bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc sa\u011flanamad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan ve i\u015fin i\u00e7ine eyaletlerin sorunlar\u0131 da girmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 ABD\u2019nin \u201cac\u0131s\u0131 kolay kolay dinmeyecek\u201d. BPP III ya da BPP IV devreye girmese de BPP II \u201cuzat\u0131lacak-esnetilecek\u201d. Bir ba\u015fka deyi\u015fle ABD\u2019de kolay para d\u00f6nemi devam edecek. [BPP III gelmedi, ancak BPP II olabildi\u011fince esnetildi! ] Fed\u2019den ve\/veya Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (ECB) herhangi bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. [Fed faiz artt\u0131r(a)mad\u0131, ECB faizi artt\u0131rd\u0131, hemen pi\u015fman olup, geri ad\u0131m att\u0131!]<\/p>\n<p>Emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda artan oynakl\u0131k&#8230; \u00dclkelerin farkl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131, d\u00f6nem d\u00f6nem arz cephesinde ya\u015fanabilecek s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar, emtia fiyatlar\u0131ndaki volatiliteyi belki de hi\u00e7 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar artt\u0131racak&#8230; Bu y\u0131l Brent petrol\u00fcnde ilk a\u015famada 105 dolar seviyesi test edilecek. [126 bile g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc ] Y\u0131l ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n da 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde olu\u015fmas\u0131 ihtimali y\u00fcksek. [110 dolar civar\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti! ] Ancak do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131 benzer bir seyir izlemeyecek. [\u0130zlemedi\u011fi gibi 4.5 dolardan 3.1 dolara geriledi] End\u00fcstriyel metallerde herkesin favorisi bak\u0131r iken benim \u201cs\u00fcrprizim\u201d nikel. [Bak\u0131r bile de\u011fer kaybederken, nikel s\u00fcrpriz falan yapamad\u0131!]<\/p>\n<p>AB&#8230; Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019ndeki sorunlar temelde devam edecek. Bu sene PIIGS\u2019den en az\u0131ndan 1 \u00fclke daha Yunanistan ve \u0130rlanda\u2019n\u0131n ak\u0131betine u\u011frayacak. Fransa ve \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin notlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi s\u0131k\u00e7a tart\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor olacak ve sonras\u0131nda da AB i\u00e7inde; Yunanistan ile de s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmayacak; bir bor\u00e7 yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rmas\u0131 g\u00fcndeme gelecek. [Yunanistan\u2019da \u201cg\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc bor\u00e7 yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131\u201d hayata ge\u00e7iyor, \u0130talya, \u0130spanya ve Portekiz eklendi. Fransa\u2019n\u0131n notu ha d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, ha d\u00fc\u015fecek. \u0130ngiltere son d\u00fczl\u00fckte \u201cayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u201d! ]<\/p>\n<p>Euro&#8230; T\u00fcm bu tart\u0131\u015fmalar d\u00f6n\u00fcp dola\u015f\u0131p euroyu vuracakt\u0131r. Yine de euronun da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131, bir \u00fclkenin \u201cat\u0131lmas\u0131\u201d ya da \u201cyeni euro\u201d s\u00f6z konusu olmayacakt\u0131r. [B\u00f6yle bir \u015fey olmad\u0131, bu sene de olmayacak! ] Euro\/dolar paritesinde bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda 1.2250-1.2450 band\u0131, ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ise 1.11-1.13 band\u0131n\u0131n test edilme ihtimali y\u00fcksek. [Ne 1.24\u2019\u00fc, ne 1.13\u2019\u00fc&#8230; \u0130lk yar\u0131da 1.49\u2019lara kadar \u00e7\u0131k\u0131ld\u0131, ikinci yar\u0131da 1.30\u2019un alt\u0131na zar zor indi! ]<\/p>\n<p>Notumuz artacak&#8230; H\u00fck\u00fcmet se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesinde olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in u\u011fra\u015f\u0131yor, ancak not \u015firketleri b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla se\u00e7im sonras\u0131n\u0131 bekleyeceklerdir. Fitch yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir seviyeye \u00e7\u0131karsa da S&amp;P ve Moody\u2019s bir kademe alt\u0131 ile yetinebilirler. [Not art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tatl\u0131 bir hayal olarak kald\u0131. Sadece bizi bize anlatan TL notumuz bir kademe artt\u0131!]<\/p>\n<p>TL kurlar\u0131&#8230; 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda TL; ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz birka\u00e7 y\u0131ldaki kadar \u201cg\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcnmeyecek. TL\u2019nin kur seviyesi de\u011filse de volatilitesi bu y\u0131l daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olacak. [hem seviyesi, hem de volatilitesi artt\u0131] Tek ba\u015f\u0131na dolar ya da euro baz\u0131nda kurlar yerine \u201c1 dolar+1 euro\u201d sepetine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda TL bu y\u0131l a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak 3.50-3.75 band\u0131nda seyretmesini bekliyorum. [4.22\u2019ye kadar y\u00fckseldi] Dolar\/TL baz\u0131nda&#8230; 1.4250-1.6350 band\u0131nda sal\u0131n\u0131m ya\u015fanmas\u0131 ihtimali hayli y\u00fcksek. [1.91\u2019lere bile gelindi]<\/p>\n<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8230; Faizleri olabildi\u011fince d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutma gayretine t\u00fcm y\u0131l boyunca \u015fahit olaca\u011f\u0131z. Genel olarak bu y\u0131l, \u00f6nceki y\u0131llara g\u00f6re daha \u00e7ok \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak(!). Son \u00fcstlendi\u011fi \u201cfinansal istikrar\u201d misyonu MB\u2019nin elinin s\u00fcrekli piyasalar \u00fczerinde olmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektirecek. S\u0131k s\u0131k yeni kararlar, yeni d\u00fczenlemeler duyaca\u011f\u0131z. [MB \u00e7ok \u201c\u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u201d. De\u011fil haftal\u0131k, g\u00fcnl\u00fck m\u00fcdahalelere kadar geldik]&#8230; Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n enflasyon hedefi yine tutmayacak; se\u00e7imlere kadar dayanabilse bile; se\u00e7imlerden hemen sonra faiz artt\u0131rmak zorunda kalabilecek. [\u201cPolitika faizini\u201d artt\u0131rmad\u0131, hatta d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Ancak \u201ci\u015f yap\u0131lan\u201d faizleri 350-400 puan artmas\u0131n\u0131n yolunu a\u00e7t\u0131.]<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3917693577\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130MKB&#8230; 2010 y\u0131l\u0131 kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00e7o\u015fku ya\u015famay\u0131z. Daha se\u00e7ici, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye y\u00f6nelik sekt\u00f6relerin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli ralliler ya\u015fanacakt\u0131r. Y\u00fckseli\u015flerde 5.80 cent seviyesi ilk ana hedef olacak. [hayal olarak kald\u0131] A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da ise 3.20 cent seviyesi \u00f6nemli bir destek. Benim tahminim \u00f6nce bu destek seviyesinin test edilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. [D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinde de\u011fil 3.20 cent, 2.60 cent bile g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc!]<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi s\u0131rada 2012 tahminleri var. Daha fazla \u201cnokta tahminin\u201d oldu\u011fu yeni y\u0131l tahminlerimi Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc bu k\u00f6\u015fede bulabilirsiniz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2011 y\u0131l\u0131na \u201cemtia y\u0131l\u0131\u201d ad\u0131n\u0131 vermi\u015ftim. Para arz\u0131n\u0131n \u201cs\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z\u201d artmas\u0131n\u0131n enflasyona, bunun da emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda ekstra bir y\u00fckselmeye yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsaym\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. [Alt\u0131n ve \u00f6zellikle g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":910,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9615","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9615","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9615"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9615\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9615"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9615"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9615"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}