{"id":9524,"date":"2011-12-30T09:18:33","date_gmt":"2011-12-30T07:18:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=9524"},"modified":"2011-12-30T09:22:02","modified_gmt":"2011-12-30T07:22:02","slug":"2012-nasil-bir-yil-olacak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/2012-nasil-bir-yil-olacak\/","title":{"rendered":"2012 Nas\u0131l Bir Y\u0131l Olacak?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Ge\u00e7en<\/span>\u00a0yaz\u0131mda 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n iyi bir y\u0131l olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ama, \u00f6zellikle \u00f6teki \u00fclkelerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yeni y\u0131la devredilen miras\u0131n \u00e7ok da olumsuz say\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledim. Bu tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 bir sonu\u00e7. B\u00f6yle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeyenler de var.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3918964294\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bu yaz\u0131da 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda neler olabilece\u011fini tart\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131m. Ba\u015ftan s\u00f6yleyeyim, 2012 y\u0131l\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerim de \u00e7ok tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131. Bir \u00e7ok yorumcuya k\u0131yasla fazlas\u0131yla iyimser kald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131 g\u00f6receksiniz.<\/p>\n<p>2012 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok da parlak bir y\u0131l olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ben de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyorum. Ama ne d\u00fcnyada ne de T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de yeni bir kriz ya da \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f de beklemiyorum do\u011frusu. \u0130yimserli\u011fimin boyu posu bu.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>2012 y\u0131l\u0131na temkinli bir iyimserlikle bakmam\u0131n iki temel nedeni var. Birisi siyasi ve iktisadi \u015foklarla ilgili. \u0130kincisi de ulusal ekonomide 2011&#8217;de ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmelerle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131.\u00a0 2012&#8217;de bu geli\u015fmelerden olumlu etkiler alaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131\u00a0 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6nce \u015fu \u015foklarla ilgili g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcme a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131k getireyim. K\u00fcresel kriz \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olu\u015fabilecek\u00a0 bir \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli \u015fokun 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini ve \u015fok s\u00fcrecinin sonuna gelindi\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda bir \u00e7ok siyasi ve ekonomik olumsuzluk ya\u015fand\u0131. Siyasi krizler oldu, bor\u00e7luluk krizleri oldu, b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 oldu vs. Ama bunlar yaratacaklar\u0131 etki ve sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 2011 &#8216;de yaratt\u0131. Art\u0131k \u015fok\u00a0 etkileri s\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7ti diye\u00a0 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Bu saptaman\u0131n 2012 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan iki \u00f6nemli sonucu var.\u00a0 Bir tanesi bu t\u00fcr \u015foklar\u0131n 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda tekrarlama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131. Yani 2011&#8217;de ya\u015fanan Orta Do\u011fu- Kuzey Afrika olaylar\u0131n\u0131n, Avrupa krizlerinin, Euro problemlerinin, ABD&#8217;deki\u00a0 siyasi \u00e7eki\u015fmenin vb bu y\u0131l yeniden ya\u015fanma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Aynen deprem gibi. B\u00fcy\u00fck depremi ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131,\u00a0 art\u00e7\u0131 sars\u0131nt\u0131lar olsa bile yeni bir b\u00fcy\u00fck ve y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 deprem olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 san\u0131yorum. 2012 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015foklardan \u00e7ok k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck sars\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131 olacak.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1090589337\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130kinci \u00f6nemli sonu\u00e7 da \u015foklarla ilgili. Piyasalar olumsuz \u015foklar\u0131 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda sat\u0131n ald\u0131 ve fiyatlad\u0131. Fiyatlanmayan\u00a0 \u00f6nemli bir olumsuzluk kalmad\u0131 herhalde. Olumsuz geli\u015fmeler fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re 2012 y\u0131l\u0131na devreden \u00f6nemli bir balon da kalmad\u0131 diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Yani, 2012&#8217;nin az balonlu bir y\u0131l olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek. Dahas\u0131, 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda\u00a0 \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlanmas\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0 kur ve faizde ciddi bir volatilite yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve\u00a0 beklentileri bozdu\u011fu\u00a0 biliniyor. 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u015foklar azalaca\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re volatilitenin de d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi, beklenti bozucu etkinin azalaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.\u00a0 B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda\u00a0 d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan yans\u0131yan olumsuz etkilerin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn azalaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. \u0130yimserli\u011fin bir kayna\u011f\u0131 bu.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Ulusal ekonomide\u00a0 2012 y\u0131l\u0131na devreden temel e\u011filimlerin\u00a0 \u00e7o\u011funun d\u00fczg\u00fcn oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm biliniyor. 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7inde bu e\u011filimler de\u011fi\u015fecek ku\u015fkusuz. Bunlardan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcndeki de\u011fi\u015fmenin\u00a0 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc ve dozunu kestirmenin y\u0131l de\u011ferlendirmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan\u00a0 \u00f6nemli olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Bunlardan birisi b\u00fcy\u00fcme. Bu ba\u011flamda rivayetin muhtelif oldu\u011fu malum. B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin sert bi\u00e7imde, y\u00fczde 2 ya da alt\u0131 gibi bir d\u00fczeye inece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6renler var. Buna kat\u0131lm\u0131yorum. B\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn y\u00fczde 4-5 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na kadar olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyorum.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-176058477\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bunun nedenlerini sonra ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 olarak tart\u0131\u015f\u0131r\u0131z . \u015eimdilik birka\u00e7 noktan\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7iziyorum. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesi devrediliyor. Bir. B\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u00e7 talep \u00e7eki\u015fli olmaya devam edecek ve i\u00e7 talepte b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi yere vuracak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in hen\u00fcz ikna edici bir neden yok. \u0130ki. D\u0131\u015far\u0131dan gelecek, korku yarat\u0131p, beklentileri bozarak harcama kas\u0131lmas\u0131 yaratacak etki g\u00f6rece zay\u0131f olacak. \u00dc\u00e7. \u0130\u015fsizli\u011fin belli bir noktaya kadar gerilemi\u015f olmas\u0131 t\u00fcketim talebini g\u00f6rece canl\u0131 tutacakt\u0131r. Bu da b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131ndaki ini\u015fi yumu\u015fat\u0131r. D\u00f6rt.<\/p>\n<p>2012&#8217;de izlenecek ikinci e\u011filim d\u0131\u015f denge ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k. Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde tepeden d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Bunun paralelinde yeni y\u0131lda cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 kan\u0131s\u0131nday\u0131m. Bunun i\u00e7in iki nedenim var. B\u00fcy\u00fcme yava\u015flayacak, bu ticaret dengesini ve cari dengeyi olumlu y\u00f6nde etkileyecek. Bu bir. D\u00f6viz kuru, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde gerilese de, y\u0131l\u0131n \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131nda ithalat\u0131 cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 ihracat\u0131 \u00f6zendirici etki yaratacak. Bu da iki. 2012 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n sonunda cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n 65-70 milyar dolar d\u00fczeyinde kalaca\u011f\u0131 kan\u0131s\u0131nday\u0131m. Osman Arolat&#8217;\u0131n hesaplar\u0131 bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekte bir a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n finansman\u0131nda bir sorun olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc e\u011filim enflasyon. Y\u0131l\u0131n birinci yar\u0131s\u0131 g\u00f6rece y\u00fcksek enflasyonla ge\u00e7ilse bile y\u0131l\u0131n sonuna daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir enflasyonla ula\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 kan\u0131s\u0131nday\u0131m.Y\u0131l sonu enflasyon oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 7 civar\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>G\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcz gibi d\u0131\u015far\u0131da ve i\u00e7eride iyimser olmay\u0131 destekleyen olas\u0131l\u0131klar var. Bunlar 2012 i\u00e7in sert ini\u015f, \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f vb senaryolar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcrm\u00fcyor do\u011frusu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ge\u00e7en\u00a0yaz\u0131mda 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n iyi bir y\u0131l olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ama, \u00f6zellikle \u00f6teki \u00fclkelerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yeni y\u0131la devredilen miras\u0131n \u00e7ok da olumsuz say\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledim. Bu tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 bir sonu\u00e7.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9524","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9524","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9524"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9524\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9524"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9524"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9524"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}