{"id":9492,"date":"2011-12-29T13:54:57","date_gmt":"2011-12-29T11:54:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=9492"},"modified":"2011-12-29T13:55:04","modified_gmt":"2011-12-29T11:55:04","slug":"dolar-bahari","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/dolar-bahari\/","title":{"rendered":"Dolar Bahar\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n son s\u00fcrecine en \u00e7ok damgas\u0131n\u0131 vuran kelime san\u0131r\u0131m \u2018bahar\u2019d\u0131r. Kuzey Afrika\u2019da ba\u015flay\u0131p Ortado\u011fu\u2019ya uzanan Arap Bahar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n T\u00fcrk\u00e7e terc\u00fcmesi demokrasi makyajl\u0131 soygundur.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1906358026\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u015eimdi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin de bir bahar\u0131 oluyor. Dolar bahar\u0131\u2026 \u00c7ok uzun zamand\u0131r bu noktadan darbe yiyece\u011fimiz gerek bast\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f kur, gerekse de pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z nedeniyle zaten belliydi.<\/p>\n<p>Y\u0131llard\u0131r T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferli tutarak, makro g\u00f6stergeleri olumlu seyirde izleten, muhasebe dilinde makyajlayan ekonomi y\u00f6netimi ilk zafiyetini sergilemeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Avro ve dolar \u00fczerinden bask\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f dengelerle i\u015fi g\u00f6t\u00fcrmenin art\u0131k m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, bizzat Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdem Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Avro\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 sa\u011flam durabilece\u011fini, ama Dolar ile yar\u0131\u015famayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade eden Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131 kamuoyundan da kendilerini ve politikalar\u0131n\u0131 Avro ile de\u011ferlendirmesini istedi. \u00d6ncelikle b\u00f6yle bir mant\u0131k olamaz, e\u011fer Dolar\u2019\u0131 kullan\u0131mdan kald\u0131rmaya niyetiniz yoksa\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Lakin bu g\u00fc\u00e7 zehirlenmesiyle gelen al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131k, bu denli cesurca (!) a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 da beraberinde getiriyor. Yani t\u0131pk\u0131 \u0130\u015fkur verilerine dayan\u0131p, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin i\u015fsizlik sorunu olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n s\u00f6ylenebildi\u011fi, bast\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ama ger\u00e7ek de\u011ferinde olmayan kur\/TL ili\u015fkisini kan\u0131t g\u00f6sterip milli geliri farkl\u0131 g\u00f6sterme kand\u0131rmacas\u0131na girilebildi\u011fi gibi\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Anla\u015f\u0131lan o ki, parite \u00fczerinden Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n kemiklerini k\u0131ran ABD, ilk zaferini T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ilan ediyor. Ekonomi y\u00f6netimi kontrol alt\u0131nda tuttu\u011fu iki ipten birini sal\u0131yor. Ekopolitik tercihtir ve sayg\u0131 g\u00f6stermek gerekir ama bunun sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da konu\u015fmakta yarar var.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7ok basit bir mant\u0131k kural\u0131m. Bask\u0131lanan kur politikas\u0131 nedeniyle \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r gelir\/gider yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l \u015fekillendirdi? En b\u00fcy\u00fck m\u00fc\u015fteri Avrupa Birli\u011fi \u00fclkeleri oldu\u011fundan gelirlerini Avro\u2019ya, giderlerini de Dolar\u2019a ba\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00f6viz pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n da a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak Dolar oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011finin alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izerek ve bunun ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan maliyeti a\u011f\u0131rla\u015ft\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da belirterek \u015fu tespiti yapal\u0131m. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki s\u00fcre\u00e7te Avro bask\u0131lanmaya devam eder ve tek yanl\u0131 olarak Dolar kontrolden ka\u00e7arsa bu \u00fcretimden hizmete d\u0131\u015f ili\u015fki i\u00e7indeki reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fck bir darbe yemesine neden olacakt\u0131r.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2319238834\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Zaten son 6 ayd\u0131r ivmesi h\u0131zla artarak y\u00fczde 100\u2019l\u00fck farka ula\u015fan \u00fcretici ve t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 bazl\u0131 enflasyon de\u011ferleri bir riski g\u00f6steriyordu. \u00dcretici enflasyonu, t\u00fcketicinin enflasyonunun iki kat\u0131 oran\u0131nda art\u0131yordu. Bu ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan maliyetlerin fiyatlara yans\u0131t\u0131lamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ve sermaye erimesi ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6stergesidir.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi ikinci bir darbe de parite \u00fczerinden ortaya \u00e7\u0131karsa, yani kontroll\u00fc bir de\u011fer art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 iki para birimi yerine, gideri olu\u015fturan\u0131n serbest b\u0131rak\u0131l\u0131p, gelir kaleminin bask\u0131lanmas\u0131yla ele al\u0131n\u0131rsa, y\u0131llard\u0131r \u00e7ekilen a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferli TL zulm\u00fcne bir yenisi eklenecektir.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130hracat pazarlar\u0131nda, alternatifleriyle birlikte i\u015f hacmi d\u00fc\u015fen ve d\u00fc\u015fecek reel sekt\u00f6r, i\u00e7 piyasada da en \u00f6nemli ithalat\u00e7\u0131 konumundaki AB\u2019ye de pazar\u0131n\u0131 daha \u00e7ok a\u00e7acak ve \u00fcretici i\u00e7te de arad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kan\u0131 bulamayacakt\u0131r. Bir de bunun \u00fczerine \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r \u00f6demeler dengesi bozulursa, 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda ana g\u00fcndemimizi kapanan firmalar ve i\u015fsizlik olu\u015fturur. \u00dcstelik bu sefer T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in rakamlar\u0131 da i\u015fi kurtaramaz.<\/p>\n<p>Velhas\u0131l kelam Merkez Bankas\u0131 ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere iktidar\u0131n ekonomi aya\u011f\u0131n\u0131n politikalar\u0131 tekrar g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmesinde fayda var. Ya iki ipi birden kontroll\u00fc salacaks\u0131n\u0131z ya da ikisini birden elden b\u0131rakmayacaks\u0131n\u0131z.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1028223715\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Diyelim ki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcz birini kontrol etmeye yetiyor ki bunda AB\u2019nin ekonomik darbo\u011faz\u0131n\u0131n ciddi etkisi var, o zaman dolar ipini b\u0131rak\u0131rken, AB \u015fartnamelerini zorlayarak \u00c7in, Rusya gibi y\u00fcksek al\u0131m yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u00fclkelerle t\u0131pk\u0131 \u00c7in ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi kendi para biriminiz \u00fczerinden al\u0131\u015fveri\u015fin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7acaks\u0131n\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>Aksi takdirde \u00fcretimin tam g\u00f6be\u011fine bomba koyuyorsunuz demektir. Bence uygulamaya ge\u00e7meden \u00f6nce Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131\u2019n\u0131n if\u015fa etti\u011fi bu politikay\u0131 tekrar g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmelisiniz. Yok, sizin i\u00e7in ekonomik realite de\u011fil, rakamlar \u00fczerinden kamuoyuna aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z sanal ba\u015far\u0131lar esas ise \u0131srar ediniz: \u201cBizi Avro ile de\u011ferlendirin.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n son s\u00fcrecine en \u00e7ok damgas\u0131n\u0131 vuran kelime san\u0131r\u0131m \u2018bahar\u2019d\u0131r. Kuzey Afrika\u2019da ba\u015flay\u0131p Ortado\u011fu\u2019ya uzanan Arap Bahar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n T\u00fcrk\u00e7e terc\u00fcmesi demokrasi makyajl\u0131 soygundur. \u015eimdi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":899,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9492","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9492","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9492"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9492\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/899"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9492"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9492"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9492"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}