{"id":9462,"date":"2011-12-29T09:06:51","date_gmt":"2011-12-29T07:06:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=9462"},"modified":"2011-12-29T09:07:05","modified_gmt":"2011-12-29T07:07:05","slug":"2011%e2%80%99de-turkiye-ekonomisi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/2011%e2%80%99de-turkiye-ekonomisi\/","title":{"rendered":"2011\u2019de T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u00c7\u0131kan y\u0131l\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. D\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in tats\u0131z bir tablo \u00e7izerek ba\u015flad\u0131k. Euro krizinin siyasi boyutunu de\u011ferlendirdik. K\u00fcresel dengesizliklere \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm gecikti, 2012\u2019de \u201csert ini\u015f\u201d ihtimali g\u00fc\u00e7lendi dedik.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3898903190\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>S\u0131ra T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine geldi. Konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fc kestirmekte zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131 y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131nda yazd\u0131m. Nitekim, ilk kez giren y\u0131l i\u00e7in tahmin vermedim. 2 Ocak 2011 tarihli yaz\u0131ma \u201c2011\u2019de Tahmin Yok\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 att\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>Ger\u00e7ekten, 2011 kelimenin tam anlam\u0131 ile \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtt\u0131. Son on y\u0131l\u0131n en ilgin\u00e7 konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fc diyebilirim. Ekonomi beklenenden \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 geli\u015fti. Ayn\u0131 anda iktisat politikas\u0131 bilinenin d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bir s\u00fcr\u00fc ezber bozuldu.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tahminler tutmad\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131nda Ekodiyalog ekibi CNBCe\u2019de Servet Y\u0131ld\u0131r\u0131m ve Mahfi E\u011filmez\u2019in misafiri olduk. Temel makro g\u00f6stergeler i\u00e7in tahminler verildi (ben hari\u00e7). Servet ve Mahfi bunlar\u0131 tablo halinde yay\u0131nlad\u0131. Ortalamalar a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da ilk s\u00fctunda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Ayr\u0131ca Ocak 2011\u2019in Merkez Bankas\u0131 Beklenti Anketi ve Consensus Economics sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 ikinci ve \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc s\u00fctuna koydum. Sa\u011f s\u00fctunda ise ayn\u0131 g\u00f6stergeler i\u00e7in son tahminler yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Bir: Ekonomi tam gaz b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye devam etti. Y\u00fczde 5-6\u2019ya yava\u015flamas\u0131 bekleniyordu. Y\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fczde 8\u2019in \u00fczerinde bitiriyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ki: D\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k kimsenin tahayy\u00fcl edemeyece\u011fi d\u00fczeylere t\u0131rmand\u0131. 50 milyar dolar civar\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. Ekim\u2019de 79 milyar dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-887888724\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u00dc\u00e7: TL\u2019de de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 kimse beklemiyordu. Y\u0131l sonu dolar tahminleri 1.55-1.60 TL civar\u0131nda geziyordu. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ra\u011fmen dolar 1.90 TL\u2019ye geldi.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00f6rt: \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n ancak y\u00fczde 11\u2019in alt\u0131na inebilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. Beklenenin \u00e7ok \u00f6tesinde bir istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczde 10\u2019un alt\u0131na indirdi.<\/p>\n<p>Be\u015f: Se\u00e7im y\u0131l\u0131nda b\u00fct\u00e7enin fazla s\u0131k\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyordu. B\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n milli gelire oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 3 yerine y\u00fczde 2\u2019nin alt\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Alt\u0131: Enflasyonun yatay seyretmesi bekleniyordu. Y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde aniden patlayarak \u00e7ift haneye t\u0131rmand\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2303806747\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bu arada, g\u00f6reli olarak en iyi tahminlerin Ekodiyalog ekibinden geldi\u011fini fark etti\u011finizi umuyorum. Kendime de pay \u00e7\u0131kart\u0131yorum.<\/p>\n<p><strong>B\u00fcy\u00fcme ve kur<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Nas\u0131l tefsir edebiliriz? Bence sorun iki temel g\u00f6stergenin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesindeki zorluktan kaynaklan\u0131yor. Bunlar b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve d\u00f6viz kurudur. Di\u011ferleri t\u00fcrevdir. D\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fcksek, b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve i\u015fsizli\u011fin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi, enflasyon ise TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Yani konjonkt\u00fcr analizi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan 2011\u2019i esas ilgin\u00e7 k\u0131lan b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve d\u00f6viz kurudur. Daha a\u00e7\u0131k soral\u0131m. 2011\u2019de ekonomi nas\u0131l b\u00f6yle h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc? TL neden de\u011fer kaybetti? Ve en \u00f6nemlisi, bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te iktisat politikalar\u0131n\u0131n rol\u00fc ve sorumlulu\u011fu nedir?<\/p>\n<p>Cevaplar 2012 i\u00e7in kritik \u00f6nemdedir. \u0130ktisat politikas\u0131na do\u011fru te\u015fhisin \u00f6n ko\u015fuludur. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile d\u00fczeltme bi\u00e7imini (\u201cyumu\u015fak\/sert ini\u015f\u201d) \u00f6ng\u00f6rmeye olanak sa\u011flar. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde mutlaka ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131na girece\u011fim.<\/p>\n<p>Okuyucular\u0131ma 2012\u2019de sa\u011fl\u0131k, refah ve huzur diliyorum.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00c7\u0131kan y\u0131l\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. D\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in tats\u0131z bir tablo \u00e7izerek ba\u015flad\u0131k. Euro krizinin siyasi boyutunu de\u011ferlendirdik. K\u00fcresel dengesizliklere \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm gecikti, 2012\u2019de \u201csert ini\u015f\u201d ihtimali g\u00fc\u00e7lendi&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9462","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9462","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9462"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9462\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9462"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9462"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9462"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}