{"id":9459,"date":"2011-12-29T09:05:53","date_gmt":"2011-12-29T07:05:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=9459"},"modified":"2011-12-29T09:06:03","modified_gmt":"2011-12-29T07:06:03","slug":"bu-kadari-da-fazla","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/bu-kadari-da-fazla\/","title":{"rendered":"Bu Kadar\u0131 da Fazla"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Neden faiz indirip iki ay sonra faizi eskisinin iki kat\u0131na y\u00fckseltmek zorunda kal\u0131p bir de y\u00fckl\u00fc d\u00f6viz sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ba\u015fl\u0131yorsunuz?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2071783156\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>2011\u2019e damgas\u0131n\u0131 vuran yurti\u00e7i ekonomik geli\u015fmenin Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TCMB) yeni para politikas\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fc sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc belirtmi\u015ftim. TCMB, ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn, 2012\u2019de uygulayaca\u011f\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7er\u00e7evesini 2002\u2019den bu yana yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi bizlerle payla\u015ft\u0131. A\u00e7\u0131klanan \u00e7er\u00e7eve 2011\u2019in a\u011fustos ay\u0131ndan bu yana uygulanan politikadan \u00f6nemli bir farkl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6stermiyor. Bug\u00fcn TCMB\u2019nin yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporda ne yaz\u0131k ki yer alan \u00f6nemli bir \u00e7eli\u015fkiye de\u011finece\u011fim. Bu \u00e7eli\u015fki, 2011\u2019deki para politikas\u0131n\u0131n neden bu kadar karma\u015f\u0131k ve kafa kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funu gayet net g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p>Raporun 7 ve 8\u2019inci paragraflar\u0131ndan: \u201c2011 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u011fustos ay\u0131ndan itibaren k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ve baz\u0131 Avrupa \u00fclkelerindeki kamu borcu sorununa ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerin derinle\u015fmesi nedeniyle k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte riskten ka\u00e7\u0131nma e\u011filiminin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n tarihsel olarak y\u00fcksek seviyelere geldi\u011fi g\u00f6zlenmi\u015ftir&#8230; K\u00fcresel ekonomiye dair giderek artan sorunlar\u0131n yurti\u00e7i iktisadi faaliyet \u00fczerinde durgunlu\u011fa yol a\u00e7ma riskini azaltmak i\u00e7in de politika faizinde \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc bir indirime gidilmi\u015ftir.\u201d (4 A\u011fustos\u2019taki 50 baz puanl\u0131k indirimden s\u00f6z ediliyor.)<br \/>\nRaporun 9\u2019uncu paragraf\u0131ndan: \u201cT\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019nda a\u011fustos ay\u0131ndan itibaren k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n bozulmas\u0131yla ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ve y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde fiyat\u0131 y\u00f6netilen\/y\u00f6nlendirilen \u00fcr\u00fcnlerdeki ayarlamalar nedeniyle k\u0131sa vadede enflasyondaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu durumun orta vadeli enflasyon beklentilerini ve g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc etkilemesini engellemek amac\u0131yla Merkez Bankas\u0131 &#8230; piyasaya yap\u0131lan fonlamay\u0131 ayarlayarak para piyasas\u0131ndaki gecelik faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n politika faizinden daha y\u00fcksekte olu\u015fmas\u0131na izin vermi\u015ftir.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi dikkat: Ko\u015fullar de\u011fi\u015firse elbette kararlar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla politika ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirirsiniz. Yani bug\u00fcn faizi indirmeniz, yar\u0131n artt\u0131rman\u0131z\u0131 haks\u0131z g\u00f6stermez. Ya\u011fmur ya\u011f\u0131yorsa \u015femsiye ile \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yoruz. G\u00fcne\u015fli havada \u015femsiye alm\u0131yoruz yan\u0131m\u0131za. Ko\u015fullar de\u011fi\u015fiyor \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc. Ama ayn\u0131 ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda 180 derece farkl\u0131 i\u015f yaparsan\u0131z bu \u2018garip\u2019 olur. TCMB ne yaz\u0131k ki ayn\u0131 ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda bu t\u00fcr bir davran\u0131\u015f sergiledi\u011fini bir g\u00fczel anlat\u0131yor. Yetmiyor, ayn\u0131 anlat\u0131m 37 ve 38\u2019inci paragraflarda da devam ediyor.<br \/>\nUzatmayay\u0131m, \u00f6zetle: A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda Avrupa\u2019da kamu borcuna ili\u015fkin endi\u015feler derinle\u015fiyor. Riskten ka\u00e7\u0131nma e\u011filimi art\u0131yor. Bu e\u011filimdeki oynakl\u0131k da art\u0131yor. TCMB faiz indirimine gidiyor (7, 8 ve 37\u2019nci paragraflar). 9 ve 38\u2019inci paragraflarda yine ayn\u0131 ko\u015fullara at\u0131f var: A\u011fustos ay\u0131ndan itibaren riskten ka\u00e7\u0131nma art\u0131yor. Lira de\u011fer kaybediyor. Enflasyon y\u00fckseliyor. TCMB piyasada y\u00fcksek faiz olu\u015fmas\u0131na izin veriyor. Bu nas\u0131l i\u015f?<\/p>\n<p>Denilebilir ki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclen faiz, haftal\u0131k politika faizi. Y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131na izin verilen ise piyasadaki gecelik faiz. Ama zaten politika faizinizin amac\u0131 piyasada olu\u015fan gecelik faizi etkileyip bu yolla da mevduat ve kredi faizini etkilemek de\u011fil mi? Yani para politikas\u0131 kararlar\u0131 ile as\u0131l etkilemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z piyasa faizi de\u011fil mi? Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla sonu\u00e7 de\u011fi\u015fmiyor: Faizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcyorsunuz ama ko\u015fullar de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fi halde iki ay sonra faizi y\u00fckseltiyorsunuz (\u0130ndirim 4 A\u011fustos\u2019ta, piyasa faizini y\u00fckselten uygulama 20 Ekim\u2019de).<\/p>\n<p>A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda mademki riskten ka\u00e7\u0131nma e\u011filiminin ve belirsizli\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyorsunuz, bunun kur \u00fczerinde etkili olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilirsiniz? Neden hemen faiz indirip iki ay sonra faizi neredeyse eskisinin iki kat\u0131na y\u00fckseltmek zorunda kal\u0131p bir de y\u00fckl\u00fc d\u00f6viz sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ba\u015fl\u0131yorsunuz? Evet, bu nas\u0131l i\u015f?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Neden faiz indirip iki ay sonra faizi eskisinin iki kat\u0131na y\u00fckseltmek zorunda kal\u0131p bir de y\u00fckl\u00fc d\u00f6viz sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ba\u015fl\u0131yorsunuz? 2011\u2019e damgas\u0131n\u0131 vuran yurti\u00e7i ekonomik geli\u015fmenin&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9459","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9459","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9459"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9459\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9459"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9459"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9459"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}