{"id":9413,"date":"2011-12-28T10:23:40","date_gmt":"2011-12-28T07:23:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=9413"},"modified":"2011-12-28T10:23:51","modified_gmt":"2011-12-28T07:23:51","slug":"2012%e2%80%99de-piyasalar-battalin-zail-oldugu-yil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/2012%e2%80%99de-piyasalar-battalin-zail-oldugu-yil\/","title":{"rendered":"2012\u2019de Piyasalar: Battal\u0131n Zail Oldu\u011fu Y\u0131l"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda piyasalar ne yapar?\u00a0 Sizle tahminlerimi payla\u015fmadan \u00f6nce T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin niye asla d\u00fczelmeyece\u011fini, \u00a0yaln\u0131z ka\u00e7an\u0131n can\u0131n\u0131 kurtaraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayan bir paragraf vereyim:<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1891486641\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u201c\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde uygulanacak para politikas\u0131n\u0131n hem esnek hem de \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir olabilir mi sorusunun yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131n bir a\u00e7\u0131dan hay\u0131r, bir a\u00e7\u0131dan evet oldu\u011funu ifade eden Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131, \u015f\u00f6yle konu\u015ftu:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSorunun yan\u0131t\u0131 mutlak anlamda bakarsan\u0131z net bir hay\u0131rd\u0131r, ba\u011f\u0131l anlamda ise net bir evettir. K\u00fcresel ko\u015fullar herhangi bir y\u00f6nde h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015fti\u011finde para politikas\u0131 da gereken dengeleyici y\u00f6ndeki tedbirleri anla\u015f\u0131labilir bir \u015fekilde h\u0131zla alabiliyorsa bu durum politika esnekli\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir avantajd\u0131r ancak mutlak anlamda politika \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilirli\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir olumsuzluktur.<\/p>\n<p>Yani mutlak anlamda para politikas\u0131 hem esnek hem de \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir olamaz. Esneklik ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilirlik aras\u0131ndaki bu ikilemi azaltman\u0131n tek yolu her bir olas\u0131 \u015foka kar\u015f\u0131 para politikas\u0131 karar\u0131n\u0131n ne olaca\u011f\u0131 hakk\u0131nda kamuoyunu \u00f6nceden bilgilendirmektir. Yani ba\u011f\u0131l anlamda para politikas\u0131 hem esnek hem \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir olabilir. Bu nedenle 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 boyunca esnek ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir bir para politikas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ileti\u015fim politikas\u0131, en az uygulanan politikan\u0131n kendisi kadar \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yacakt\u0131r.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Tanr\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131na, elinizi vicdan\u0131za koyun ve s\u00f6yleyin:\u00a0 Ben b\u00f6yle makaleler yazsam, ka\u00e7 hafta beni okursunuz?\u00a0 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye piyasalar\u0131 ve ekonomisi i\u00e7in en b\u00fcy\u00fck risk TCMB y\u00f6netimidir. Saatli bomba gibi, devaml\u0131 t\u0131k-t\u0131k yap\u0131yor, her an da patlayabilir.<\/p>\n<p>Bak\u0131n size samimi s\u00f6yleyeyim, y\u0131l\u0131n en az\u0131ndan ilk d\u00f6rt ay\u0131nda ne global borsalarda, ne de \u0130MKB-100\u2019de prim olmaz. Sebepleri de \u00e7ok basit. Bir, ortada sat\u0131n al\u0131nacak do\u011fru d\u00fcr\u00fcst bir hikaye yok.\u00a0 \u0130ki, Avrupa\u2019da krizi bitirmenin tek \u00e7aresi kriz \u00e7\u0131kartmak.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcnyada b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomik bloklar aras\u0131nda\u00a0 halen h\u0131zlanan tek \u00fclke ABD. Orda da ivmeyi Kongre bitirecek.\u00a0 Noel\u2019den bir ka\u00e7 saat \u00f6nce Kongre sosyal g\u00fcvenlik prim indirimini 2 ay uzatan bir yasay\u0131 benimsedi. Sosyal g\u00fcvenlik primlerinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutulmas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye %0.5-0.75 aras\u0131 bir katk\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor.\u00a0 \u015eubat\u2019ta sosyal g\u00fcvenlik kavgas\u0131 bir kez daha ba\u015flayacak.\u00a0 O tarihte Cumhuriyet\u00e7iler\u2019in aday aday\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131 da ikiye iner. Bence Mitt Romney ve Rick Perry aday olacak, ama Newt Gingrich de olabilir. Bu adamlar merkez se\u00e7mene\u00a0 \u0130dris Naim \u015eahin ve B\u00fclent Ar\u0131n\u00e7 kadar cazip geliyor. Hayat\u0131n\u0131 Cumhuriyet\u00e7i Parti\u2019ye adamam\u0131\u015f hi\u00e7 bir se\u00e7men bu adamlara oy vermez. Cumhuriyet\u00e7iler\u2019in tek bir \u015fans\u0131 var:\u00a0 Ekonomiyi resesyona sokmak. Bu y\u00fczden de sosyal g\u00fcvenlik kavgas\u0131 en az 2 ay s\u00fcrecek.\u00a0 Bu s\u00fcre zarf\u0131nda da ABD ekonomosinde g\u00fcven diye bir \u015fey kalmayacak.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ekonomihaberyorum.com\/2012%E2%80%99de-piyasalar-battalin-zail-oldugu-yil\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">BURAYI<\/a> ziyaret ediniz.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2860721430\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda piyasalar ne yapar?\u00a0 Sizle tahminlerimi payla\u015fmadan \u00f6nce T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin niye asla d\u00fczelmeyece\u011fini, \u00a0yaln\u0131z ka\u00e7an\u0131n can\u0131n\u0131 kurtaraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayan bir paragraf vereyim: \u201c\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde uygulanacak&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":927,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9413","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9413","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9413"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9413\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/927"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9413"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9413"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9413"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}