{"id":9407,"date":"2011-12-28T10:20:36","date_gmt":"2011-12-28T07:20:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=9407"},"modified":"2011-12-28T10:20:45","modified_gmt":"2011-12-28T07:20:45","slug":"2011in-hararetli-bir-tartisma-konusu-ic-talebi-artirici-maliye-politikalari","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/2011in-hararetli-bir-tartisma-konusu-ic-talebi-artirici-maliye-politikalari\/","title":{"rendered":"2011&#8217;in hararetli bir tart\u0131\u015fma konusu: \u0130\u00e7 talebi art\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 maliye politikalar\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">K\u00fcresel<\/span>\u00a0krizin \u015fiddetlendi\u011fi 2008 sonu ile 2009&#8217;un ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda \u00e7ok say\u0131da \u00fclke ekonomilerinin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesini ya da b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesini engellemek i\u00e7in i\u00e7 talebi art\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 maliye politikalar\u0131 uygulamaya koyuldular. Bu politikalar b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ve kamu bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Bir de finansal sistemlerine b\u00fct\u00e7elerinden kaynak aktarmak durumunda kalan \u00fclkelerde bu sorunlar daha da belirginle\u015fti.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1347158642\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u00d6zellikle ABD&#8217;de 2011&#8217;de ekonominin yava\u015f da olsa toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131 sinyalleri gelmeye ba\u015flay\u0131nca ekonomistler aras\u0131nda hararetli bir tart\u0131\u015fma ba\u015flad\u0131. Daha s\u0131k\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7e politikalar\u0131 uygulanmaya ba\u015flans\u0131n m\u0131 ba\u015flanmas\u0131n m\u0131? Baz\u0131 ekonomistler b\u0131rak\u0131n daha s\u0131k\u0131 bir b\u00fct\u00e7e politikas\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015fi, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc kriz \u00f6ncesi d\u00fczeyine yakla\u015fmamas\u0131 nedeniyle, maliye politikas\u0131nda bir miktar daha gev\u015feme \u00f6neriyorlar. Tart\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrenler tan\u0131nm\u0131\u015f iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar, aralar\u0131nda Nobel ekonomi \u00f6d\u00fcl\u00fc sahipleri de var.<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Mali disiplin mi mali gev\u015feme mi?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Tart\u0131\u015fma \u015fu \u015fekle b\u00fcr\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f vaziyette: \u015eimdi mali disiplin isteyenler, bunun y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeylerde olan kamu borcu-milli gelir oran\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesini sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faretle bu sayede ekonomiye duyulan g\u00fcvenin artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyorlar. B\u00f6ylelikle \u00f6zel kesimin harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bu harcama art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n da kamu kesimince azalt\u0131lan kamu harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 telafi edece\u011fini vurguluyorlar. K\u0131saca onlar &#8220;mali disiplin bug\u00fcnk\u00fc ko\u015fullarda ABD&#8217;de b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131racakt\u0131r&#8221; iddias\u0131ndalar.<\/p>\n<p>Aksi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fte olanlar kamu harcamalar\u0131ndaki azal\u0131\u015f\u0131n ve vergi oranlar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00f6zel kesimin t\u00fcketim ve yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 azaltaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bu durumda i\u015fsizli\u011fin daha da y\u00fckselece\u011fini belirtiyorlar. Onlar, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, &#8220;bug\u00fcn uygulanacak mali disiplinin i\u015fsizli\u011fi y\u00fckseltece\u011fi&#8221; kan\u0131s\u0131ndalar.<\/p>\n<p>Her iki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc belirtirken \u00f6zellikle &#8216;bug\u00fcn&#8217; vurgusu yapt\u0131m. Zira tart\u0131\u015fma gelecekte mali disiplinin gerekli olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 hakk\u0131nda de\u011fil. ABD&#8217;de bu kadar y\u00fcksek kamu borcu varken, ileride mutlaka daha disiplinli bir maliye politikas\u0131 uygulanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi hakk\u0131nda neredeyse g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f birli\u011fi var.<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">2001 ve k\u00fcresel krizde T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de GSYH<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Grafik 1&#8217;de mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131lan\u0131n (GSYH&#8217;nin) 2001 krizi ile k\u00fcresel kriz s\u0131ras\u0131ndaki hareketleri \u00e7eyrek y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00f6nemler i\u00e7in g\u00f6steriliyor. Her iki d\u00f6nemdeki GSYH&#8217;yi de endekse d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrd\u00fcm. 2001 krizini \u00f6rnek olarak alarak anlatay\u0131m: Krizden \u00f6nce GSYH&#8217;nin en \u00fcst d\u00fczeye ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eyrek y\u0131l yatay eksende &#8216;0&#8217; ile i\u015faretleniyor ve ayr\u0131ca bu maksimum de\u011fer 100&#8217;e e\u015fitleniyor. Bu maksimum de\u011ferin elde edildi\u011fi \u00e7eyrekten \u00f6nceki d\u00f6rt d\u00f6nem (grafikte yatay eksende eksi i\u015faretli \u00e7eyrekler) ile sonraki dokuz d\u00f6nemi (art\u0131 i\u015faretli \u00e7eyrekler) kapsayan bir &#8216;pencere&#8217; olu\u015fturuluyor. Bu pencere i\u00e7indeki t\u00fcm GSYH de\u011ferleri &#8216;0&#8217;\u0131nc\u0131 \u00e7eyrekte 100&#8217;e e\u015fit olan GSYH de\u011ferine k\u0131yasla yeniden hesaplan\u0131yor. Ayn\u0131 i\u015flem k\u00fcresel kriz i\u00e7in de yap\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2222284375\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Her iki krizdeki GSYH hareketi \u00e7ok benzer: &#8216;V&#8217; \u015feklinde. Kriz s\u0131ras\u0131nda GSYH keskin bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor (ekonomi daral\u0131yor) ve GSYH&#8217;nin krizden \u00f6nceki d\u00fczeyine gelmesi uzunca bir zaman gerektiriyor. Soru \u015fu: Madem ki her iki krizde de GSYH benzer bi\u00e7imde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcyor, T\u00fcrkiye bu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeyi \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in her iki krizde de i\u00e7 talebi art\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 politika uygulayabilir miydi?<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">K\u00fcresel krizde maliye politikas\u0131<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye, \u00e7o\u011fu \u00fclke gibi, k\u00fcresel kriz s\u0131ras\u0131nda GSYH&#8217;deki keskin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc azaltmak \u00fczere i\u00e7 talebi art\u0131rmak amac\u0131yla az da olsa maliye politikas\u0131nda gev\u015femeye gitti. Grafik 2&#8217;de, G-20 grubundaki geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan \u00fclkelerin Nisan 2009 itibar\u0131yla maliye politikalar\u0131n\u0131 ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde gev\u015fettikleri ya da gev\u015feteceklerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131klar\u0131 g\u00f6steriliyor. Bu grafik yard\u0131m\u0131yla T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin o d\u00f6nemde ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nlemlerin di\u011fer \u00fclkelerin ald\u0131klar\u0131 ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 yapmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n<p>Grafik 2&#8217;nin yatay ekseninde mali gev\u015femenin GSYH&#8217;ye oran\u0131 var: Do\u011fuya do\u011fru art\u0131yor. Dikey eksende ise ayn\u0131 \u00fclkelerin kamu bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n GSYH&#8217;ye oranlar\u0131 yer al\u0131yor: Bu oran kuzeye do\u011fru gidildik\u00e7e art\u0131yor. Beklenen ili\u015fki \u015fu: &#8220;Bor\u00e7 oran\u0131 y\u00fcksek olan \u00fclkeler daha az, bor\u00e7 oran\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olan \u00fclkeler ise daha \u00e7ok mali gev\u015femeye giderler.&#8221; Ger\u00e7ekten de \u00f6yle olmu\u015f. Grafikte yer alan e\u011fri bu ili\u015fkiyi g\u00f6steriyor ve kuzeybat\u0131dan g\u00fcneydo\u011fuya do\u011fru y\u00f6nelen bir e\u011fime sahip. K\u0131sacas\u0131, kamu borcu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olan \u00fclkeler ekonomilerinin daralmalar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha \u00e7ok tepki vermi\u015fler.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2224711486\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ayn\u0131 grafik, kamu borcu yerine b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya da d\u00f6viz rezervleri kullan\u0131larak da \u00e7izilebilirdi. \u00d6yle yap\u0131nca da sonu\u00e7 de\u011fi\u015fmiyor. Dikkat ederseniz bu de\u011fi\u015fkenler bir \u00fclkeye y\u00f6nelik risk alg\u0131lamas\u0131n\u0131 belirleyen temel de\u011fi\u015fkenler. D\u00f6viz rezervi ne kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckse, b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve kamu borcu ne kadar y\u00fcksekse o \u00fclkenin riski de o kadar y\u00fcksek. Demek ki risk d\u00fczeyi ile i\u00e7 talebi art\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 maliye politikalar\u0131n\u0131n uygulanabilirli\u011fi aras\u0131nda bir ili\u015fki var.<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">2001&#8217;de uygulanamazd\u0131<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>2001&#8217;de T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi \u00e7ok riskli. Hem T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin bor\u00e7lanma faizleri ile ayn\u0131 vadede ve ayn\u0131 para birimi cinsinden ba\u015fka \u00fclkelerin bor\u00e7lanma faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark bu ger\u00e7e\u011fi g\u00f6steriyor hem de kamu maliyesine ili\u015fkin g\u00f6stergeler. 2001 sonunda faiz fark\u0131 889 baz puan iken 2008 sonunda 382 baz puan. Avrupa Birli\u011fi tan\u0131ml\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n GSYH&#8217;ye oran\u0131 2001 sonunda y\u00fczde 24.5, oysa 2008 sonunda y\u00fczde 2.2. Arada da\u011flar kadar fark var. Kamu borcunun GSYH&#8217;ye oran\u0131 2001&#8217;de y\u00fczde 74, 2008&#8217;de y\u00fczde 40.<\/p>\n<p>Daha fazla rakam vermeye gerek yok. Bu rakamlar 2001&#8217;de T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin \u00e7ok riskli bir \u00fclke oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. \u00dcstelik bu riskin temel nedenlerinden biri bozuk maliye politikas\u0131. Buradan \u00e7\u0131kacak do\u011fal sonu\u00e7 b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha da art\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131n o d\u00f6nemde uygulama \u015fans\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131. Uygularsan\u0131z &#8216;ka\u015f yapay\u0131m derken g\u00f6z \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yorsunuz&#8217; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc. Maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131 daha da gev\u015feterek risk alg\u0131lamas\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yorsunuz: Reel faiz y\u00fckselirken ekonomiye duyulan g\u00fcven azal\u0131yor. \u00d6zellikle yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131 erteleniyor. Keza dayan\u0131kl\u0131 t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 da. Bu durumda b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z &#8216;\u00f6nlemler&#8217; b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin azalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">K\u0131ssadan hisse<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bu rakamlardan ikna olmayanlar Yunanistan ya da \u0130talya&#8217;n\u0131n bug\u00fcnk\u00fc durumunu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilirler. Bu \u00fclkelerin kamu borcu-GSYH oran\u0131 \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek. \u0130talya&#8217;n\u0131nki y\u00fczde 120, Yunanistan&#8217;\u0131nki daha da fazla. Yunanistan&#8217;\u0131n bor\u00e7lanma faizi ile ayn\u0131 vadedeki Almanya tahvilinin faizi aras\u0131ndaki fark uzayda geziniyor. Almanya&#8217;n\u0131n 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvilinin faizi y\u00fczde 2 d\u00fczeyindeyken, \u0130talya&#8217;n\u0131nki y\u00fczde 7 d\u00fczeyinde.\u00a0 Bu \u00fclkeler 2012&#8217;de \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde daralacaklar. Herhalde bu daralmay\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetecek halleri yok. Zaten kimse de b\u00f6yle bir sa\u00e7mal\u0131\u011f\u0131 tavsiye etmiyor. Aksine her iki \u00fclkede de kemer s\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 \u00f6nlem almak \u00fczere teknokrat h\u00fck\u00fcmetler i\u015f ba\u015f\u0131na geldiler (getirildiler).<\/p>\n<p>K\u0131ssadan hisse \u015fu: Her ekonomik daralman\u0131n ilac\u0131 maliye politikas\u0131nda geni\u015fleme olamaz. Bu t\u00fcr bir politikan\u0131n i\u015fe yarayaca\u011f\u0131 ekonomik durumlar oldu\u011fu gibi ters tepebilece\u011fi ekonomik durumlar da var. B\u00f6yle bir politika 2001 krizinde ters teperdi; uygulanmamal\u0131yd\u0131 zaten uygulanmad\u0131), ama k\u00fcresel kriz s\u0131ras\u0131nda i\u015fe yarard\u0131; uygulanmal\u0131yd\u0131 (bir miktar uyguland\u0131). Ekonominin i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu durumdan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir ekonomi politikas\u0131 tasarlanamaz. Bu basit ger\u00e7ek bazen ne yaz\u0131k ki g\u00f6zden ka\u00e7\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Peki, ABD&#8217;de bu tart\u0131\u015fma niye yap\u0131l\u0131yor? K\u00fcre kar\u0131\u015f\u0131nca zaten herkes ko\u015fturup ABD Hazine tahvili al\u0131yor. Bu nedenle ABD devlet tahvillerinin faizi \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeylerde. Keza para politikas\u0131n\u0131n da yard\u0131m\u0131yla ABD&#8217;de di\u011fer faizler de \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeyde. Bu \u00fclkeye ili\u015fkin belirgin bir risk alg\u0131lamas\u0131 yok. Birka\u00e7 y\u0131l sonras\u0131ndan ba\u015flayarak telafi etmek \u00fczere bug\u00fcn b\u00fct\u00e7eyi bir miktar gev\u015fetmekte \u00f6nemli bir sak\u0131nca olmasa gerek.<\/p>\n<p>Anla\u015f\u0131lan baz\u0131 ABD&#8217;li iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar \u00f6yle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Bu iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen siyasiler de var. Cumhuriyet\u00e7i partinin bir k\u0131sm\u0131, \u00f6zellikle &#8216;\u00e7ay partisi&#8217; grubundakiler daha fazla mali \u00f6nleme kesinlikle kar\u015f\u0131lar. Anlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z bilimsel analiz ideolojiye yenik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor, &#8216;asla olmaz&#8217; kazan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>K\u00fcresel\u00a0krizin \u015fiddetlendi\u011fi 2008 sonu ile 2009&#8217;un ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda \u00e7ok say\u0131da \u00fclke ekonomilerinin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesini ya da b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesini engellemek i\u00e7in i\u00e7 talebi art\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 maliye politikalar\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9407","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9407","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9407"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9407\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9407"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9407"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9407"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}