{"id":9401,"date":"2011-12-28T10:18:48","date_gmt":"2011-12-28T07:18:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=9401"},"modified":"2011-12-28T10:18:56","modified_gmt":"2011-12-28T07:18:56","slug":"2011den-devreden-tablo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/2011den-devreden-tablo\/","title":{"rendered":"2011&#8217;den Devreden Tablo"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcnya siyaseti ve ekonomisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan iyi bir y\u0131l oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenemez. Arap bahar\u0131, Avrupa k\u0131\u015f\u0131, Amerikan nezlesi falan derken siyaset alan\u0131 ar\u0131zalarla dolu bir y\u0131l ya\u015fad\u0131. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde ise neredeyse k\u00fcresel krizin geri geldi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcren geli\u015fmeler oldu. D\u00fcnya 2012&#8217;ye pek de d\u00fczg\u00fcn bir tablo devretmedi anlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1781059652\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>S\u00f6z T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;ye gelince durum tam b\u00f6yle de\u011fil. T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de de 2012&#8217;ye devredilen tablonun\u00a0 m\u00fckemmel oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek do\u011fru olmaz tabii. Bizde de ar\u0131zalar var.\u00a0 Ama, 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle k\u00f6t\u00fc bir y\u0131l oldu\u011funu, devredilen tablonun da berbat bir tablo oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek yanl\u0131\u015f olur.<\/p>\n<p>Kendi ad\u0131ma tablonun pek de k\u00f6t\u00fc olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi ana e\u011filimleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan 2012 y\u0131l\u0131na g\u00f6rece iyi bir tablo devrediyor. Bu yarg\u0131m\u0131n iki \u00f6nemli dayana\u011f\u0131 var. Bunlardan birisi 2011&#8217;den devrolan b\u00fcy\u00fcme dinami\u011fi. Bug\u00fcn \u00f6zellikle geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin kabusu haline gelmi\u015f olan b\u00fcy\u00fcme e\u011filimi bizde hala baya\u011f\u0131 d\u00fczg\u00fcn. Y\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fczde 7 civar\u0131nda bir h\u0131z ile tamamlayaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Neresinden baksan\u0131z 2012 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 olumlu etkileyecek bir dinamik bu. Olumlu bir miras. \u015eikayet edecek halimiz yok. Bu bir.<\/p>\n<p>2011 y\u0131l\u0131 tablosunun g\u00f6rece d\u00fczg\u00fcn oldu\u011funa ili\u015fkin yarg\u0131m\u0131n ikinci dayana\u011f\u0131 kamu maliyesindeki denge. Burada da durum d\u00fcnya ile k\u0131yaslanmayacak kadar d\u00fczg\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor do\u011frusu. B\u00fct\u00e7e dengesi, faiz d\u0131\u015f\u0131 denge, bor\u00e7 dinami\u011fi ve bor\u00e7 stoku a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan veriler olumlu bir duruma i\u015faret ediyor. 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 neredeyse dengede bir kamu maliyesi ile kapat\u0131yoruz. Nas\u0131l ve hangi nedenle olursa olsun y\u0131l\u0131n on birinci ay\u0131nda b\u00fct\u00e7e fazlas\u0131 vermek az buz i\u015f de\u011fil. Huysuzluk edip, bundan \u015fikayet edecek halimiz de yok. Bu da iki.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ki ana e\u011filim d\u00fczg\u00fcn olunca bunlar\u0131n destekledi\u011fi e\u011filimler de d\u00fczg\u00fcn oluyor. B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finin sonuna kadar g\u00f6rece h\u0131zl\u0131 olmas\u0131 i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n da h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015fmesine neden oldu. 2012 y\u0131l\u0131na son y\u0131llara g\u00f6re d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir i\u015fsizlik ortam\u0131 devredece\u011fimiz anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Bunda da \u015fikayet edecek bir durum yok.<\/p>\n<p>Biraz daha ihtiyatl\u0131 olmak kayd\u0131yla enflasyon a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da g\u00f6reli bir iyimserlik i\u00e7inde olmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. benzer \u015feyler s\u00f6ylenebilir. 2011 sonunda man\u015fet enflasyonun y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 ihtiyatl\u0131 olmay\u0131 gerektiriyor. Yava\u015f da olsa \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonda da y\u00fckselme e\u011filimi olmas\u0131 2012&#8217;ye devredilen enflasyon tablosu hakk\u0131nda ihtiyatl\u0131 olma ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fruluyor.\u00a0 Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k kamu dengesinin s\u0131k\u0131 olmas\u0131 enflasyon a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir \u00e7\u0131pa ku\u015fkusuz. 2012 y\u0131l\u0131na elden ka\u00e7an (run away) bir enflasyon dinami\u011fi devredilmeyece\u011finin bir t\u00fcr g\u00fcvencesi bu.\u00a0 Y\u0131l i\u00e7inde fokusunu biraz kaybetmi\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de para otoritesi y\u0131l\u0131 g\u00f6reli bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ile tamaml\u0131yor. Bu da bir t\u00fcr parasal frenin de devrede oldu\u011fu\u00a0 anlam\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yor. Bu tablo ar\u0131zi etkenler d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda 2012 y\u0131l\u0131na devredilen enflasyon dinami\u011finin \u00e7ok da olumsuz olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 izlenimini veriyor. En az\u0131ndan devredilen enflasyon dinami\u011finin olumlu olan genel tabloda b\u00fcy\u00fck hasar yaratmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1588564335\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Olumlu gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnen ekonomik tabloya ilave etmemiz gereken\u00a0 bir de olumsuz e\u011filim var. 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda ekonominin d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 adeta patlar gibi b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Hem ekonominin dengelenmesi hem olu\u015fan a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131\u00a0 finansman sorunlar\u0131 hem de ekonomiye d\u00f6n\u00fck risk alg\u0131s\u0131 ve beklentileri bozuyor olmas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fck bir olumsuzluk bu. 2012 y\u0131l\u0131na b\u00f6yle bir olumsuzluk devrediliyor olmas\u0131 genel tabloyu da bozuyor ku\u015fkusuz.\u00a0 Bu ba\u011flamda iki teselli noktas\u0131 oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. Bunlardan birisi hala h\u0131zl\u0131 olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin h\u0131z kesiyor olmas\u0131. Bunun cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 bask\u0131layaca\u011f\u0131 biliniyor. A\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 bask\u0131layan ikinci unsur ise T\u00fcrk liras\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fer kaybediyor olmas\u0131. Bu ikisinin\u00a0 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir d\u00fczeye gerilemesine ciddi katk\u0131 yapmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 var. Teselli olmak isteyenler b\u00f6yle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir.<\/p>\n<p>2011 tablosuna eklemek istedi\u011fim son bir nokta daha var. Y\u0131l i\u00e7inde i\u00e7eride, daha \u00e7ok da\u00a0 d\u0131\u015far\u0131da pek \u00e7ok siyasi ve iktisadi olumsuzluk ya\u015fand\u0131. Mali piyasalar bu olumsuzluklar\u0131 sat\u0131n ald\u0131 ve fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131tt\u0131. Bunun sonucunda d\u00f6viz kuru ve (biraz \u00f6rt\u00fck bi\u00e7imde de olsa) faiz oran\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. Y\u0131l sonunda sat\u0131n al\u0131nmayan \u00f6nemli bir olumsuzluk kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sanm\u0131yorum. 2012 y\u0131l\u0131na devredilen \u00f6nemli bir finansal balon olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor bu. Bu durumun\u00a0 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 miras\u0131n\u0131n olumlu bir unsuru olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesinin do\u011fru olaca\u011f\u0131 kan\u0131s\u0131nday\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>2012 y\u0131l\u0131na devredilen ekonomi tablosunun genelde olumlu oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Neden b\u00f6yle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fc\u00a0 anlatt\u0131m. Umar\u0131m ikna edici olmu\u015ftur.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1746928347\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcnya siyaseti ve ekonomisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan iyi bir y\u0131l oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenemez. Arap bahar\u0131, Avrupa k\u0131\u015f\u0131, Amerikan nezlesi falan derken siyaset alan\u0131 ar\u0131zalarla dolu bir&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9401","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9401","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9401"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9401\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9401"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9401"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9401"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}