{"id":9356,"date":"2011-12-27T10:20:20","date_gmt":"2011-12-27T07:20:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=9356"},"modified":"2011-12-27T10:20:28","modified_gmt":"2011-12-27T07:20:28","slug":"2011%e2%80%99de-dunya-ekonomisi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/2011%e2%80%99de-dunya-ekonomisi\/","title":{"rendered":"2011\u2019de D\u00fcnya Ekonomisi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Son iki yaz\u0131da \u00e7\u0131kan y\u0131l\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Y\u0131llarca sadece T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye odakland\u0131k. D\u0131\u015far\u0131y\u0131 ihmal ettik. Ama krizle birlikte k\u00fcresel konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fcn \u00f6nemi artt\u0131. \u015eartlara uyduk. D\u00fcnya ekonomisi ile ba\u015fl\u0131yoruz.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-294905826\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>K\u0131saca hat\u0131rlayal\u0131m. 2008 adeta bir k\u00e2bus havas\u0131nda bitti. 2009\u2019da sald\u0131rgan para ve maliye politikalar\u0131 devreye girdi. \u201cB\u00fcy\u00fck Buhran\u201d \u00e7ap\u0131nda bir k\u00fcresel felaket engellendi. 2010\u2019da geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde ilk toparlanma i\u015faretleri belirdi.<\/p>\n<p>Ama d\u00fcnya ekonomisi \u00fczerindeki kara bulutlar bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc da\u011f\u0131lm\u0131yordu. Ben d\u00e2hil, pek \u00e7ok iktisat\u00e7\u0131, mali piyasalar\u0131n iyimserli\u011fini sorguluyordu. Ba\u015fka yerlerde ba\u015fka sorunlar\u0131n birikti\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekiliyordu.<\/p>\n<p>26 Aral\u0131k 2010 tarihli yaz\u0131m\u0131 \u015f\u00f6yle bitirdim: \u201cD\u00fcnya ekonomisi 2010\u2019u beklenenden iyi ge\u00e7irdi. Ancak reel dengesizliklerde d\u00fczeltme bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc devreye sokulamad\u0131. Bu da ba\u015fka dengesizliklerin tohumlar\u0131n\u0131n at\u0131lmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile 2011\u2019e zor bir miras b\u0131rak\u0131yor.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Euro krizi<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>K\u00fcresel d\u00fczeyde 2011\u2019e damgas\u0131n\u0131 vuran olay hi\u00e7 teredd\u00fcts\u00fcz euro b\u00f6lgesini saran kamu borcu krizidir. Y\u0131l boyunca d\u00fcnya kamuoyunu ve mali piyasalar\u0131 me\u015fgul etti. Euro b\u00f6lgesinin, hatta AB\u2019nin da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131na kadar giden senaryolar\u0131 besledi.<\/p>\n<p>Do\u011fal olarak, \u00e7e\u015fitli vesilelerle ben de konuya girdim. Genelde daha iyimser kanatta yer ald\u0131m. Birka\u00e7 kez \u201cmerak etmeyin, euro da\u011f\u0131lmaz, \u015fu ya da bu \u015fekilde bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm bulunur\u201d dedim.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ktisat\u00e7\u0131 i\u00e7in euro b\u00f6lgesinin sorunlar\u0131 kolayd\u0131r. Yunanistan m\u00fcflistir; \u0130talya ve \u0130spanya\u2019n\u0131n ise likidite sorunlar\u0131 vard\u0131r. \u0130lki bor\u00e7 silme gerektirir. \u0130kincisi likidite verilerek \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclebilir. Her ikisi de teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan hem m\u00fcmk\u00fcn hem basittir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2010984493\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc zorla\u015ft\u0131ran siyasettir. \u0130ki \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm de ge\u00e7mi\u015fte sorumsuz davrananlar\u0131n bug\u00fcn bedel \u00f6demeden s\u0131y\u0131rmalar\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir. Bu durum ge\u00e7mi\u015fte sorumlu davranan b\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerini rahats\u0131z eder. \u00dcstelik alacakl\u0131lar onlard\u0131r. \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcme direnirler.<\/p>\n<p>Yeni \u00f6\u011frendim; Almanca \u201cbor\u00e7\u201d s\u00f6zc\u00fc\u011f\u00fc su\u00e7 kavram\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilmi\u015f. Euro krizini t\u0131rmand\u0131ran \u00f6zellikle Almanya\u2019da siyasi karar mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131 etkileyen su\u00e7lular\u0131 cezaland\u0131rma arzusudur. Teknik enstr\u00fcmanlar\u0131n yetersizli\u011fi de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ufuktaki \u201csert ini\u015f\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>K\u00fcresel ekonominin \u00f6n\u00fcndeki temel sorun h\u00e2l\u00e2 ayn\u0131d\u0131r: \u00fcretti\u011finden fazla harcayan (d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k veren) ekonomilerle \u00fcretti\u011finden az harcayan (d\u0131\u015f fazla veren) ekonomiler aras\u0131nda \u00fcretim-harcama dengesi nas\u0131l yeniden tesis edilecek?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-503113797\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u201cYumu\u015fak ini\u015f\u201d i\u00e7in ikinci grup \u00fclkelerde t\u00fcketim art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ciddi \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde seyretmesi gerekiyor. Maalesef 2010\u2019da bu y\u00f6nde olumlu bir geli\u015fme sa\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyemiyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde \u201csert ini\u015f\u201d ihtimali g\u00f6zle g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr \u015fekilde y\u00fckseliyor. Bir: Yeni mali \u00e7alkant\u0131lar g\u00fcndemdedir. \u0130ki: K\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme yava\u015fl\u0131yor; hatta tamamen durabilir. \u00dc\u00e7: Politika opsiyonlar\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015fe k\u0131yasla \u00e7ok daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Velhas\u0131l 2011 d\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in tats\u0131z bir y\u0131ld\u0131. Korkar\u0131m 2012 onu da aratabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Son iki yaz\u0131da \u00e7\u0131kan y\u0131l\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Y\u0131llarca sadece T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye odakland\u0131k. D\u0131\u015far\u0131y\u0131 ihmal ettik. Ama krizle birlikte k\u00fcresel konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fcn \u00f6nemi artt\u0131. \u015eartlara uyduk. D\u00fcnya ekonomisi ile&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9356","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9356","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9356"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9356\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9356"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9356"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9356"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}