{"id":9308,"date":"2011-12-26T11:23:21","date_gmt":"2011-12-26T08:23:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=9308"},"modified":"2011-12-26T11:23:29","modified_gmt":"2011-12-26T08:23:29","slug":"gerceklerin-cekim-gucu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/gerceklerin-cekim-gucu\/","title":{"rendered":"Ger\u00e7eklerin \u00c7ekim G\u00fcc\u00fc"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bir seneyi daha geride b\u0131rakmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u015fu g\u00fcnlerde, hangi \u00f6l\u00e7ekte olursa olsun karar alma konumundaki kesimlerin olduk\u00e7a s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011fu dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. \u00d6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azalan i\u015flem hacimlerine ra\u011fmen, finansal piyasalar\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131 daha olumlu bilan\u00e7olarla kapatmak ad\u0131na iyimser e\u011filimleri zorlamas\u0131 bu ger\u00e7e\u011fi de\u011fi\u015ftiremiyor. Her kesimin kontrol edemedi\u011fi de\u011fi\u015fkenler nedeniyle d\u00f6nem ba\u015f\u0131ndaki hesaplar\u0131n tutmam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 nedeniyle bunald\u0131\u011f\u0131, beklentilerin olumsuzla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 engelleyemedi\u011fi g\u00f6zleniyor. Uzla\u015fmaya dayal\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 yerine tepkisellik artt\u0131k\u00e7a sorunlar a\u011f\u0131rla\u015f\u0131yor, belirsizlik ve k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131ktaki y\u00fckseli\u015fi kontrol etmek pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olam\u0131yor. K\u00fcresel d\u00fcnyada b\u00fcy\u00fcme potansiyelinin t\u00fckeniyor, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmenin yarataca\u011f\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n katlan\u0131labilir olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n biliniyor, sorunlar a\u011f\u0131rla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a yerinde sayarak mevcudu koruman\u0131n imk\u00e2ns\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n daha net bir \u015fekilde alg\u0131lan\u0131yor olmas\u0131 tuhaf bir a\u00e7maz yarat\u0131yor&#8230; Aza tamah edememi\u015f olman\u0131n bedeli giderek a\u011f\u0131rla\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2748142991\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>2011 y\u0131l\u0131 genelinde \u00fclkemizde ya\u015fananlara bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda enflasyonun \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen hedefin iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, al\u0131nan \u00f6nlemlere ra\u011fmen cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131lan\u0131n y\u00fczde 10&#8217;una yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, d\u0131\u015f finansman imk\u00e2nlar\u0131nda hem kalitenin d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc hem de daralman\u0131n ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zlemliyoruz. Durum b\u00f6yle olunca b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fcksekli\u011fi, i\u015fsizli\u011fin azalmas\u0131 veya b\u00fct\u00e7e gelirlerinde ya\u015fanan art\u0131\u015f nedeniyle a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n azalm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 kimseyi rahatlatam\u0131yor. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131&#8217;nda ya\u015fanan de\u011fer kayb\u0131na ra\u011fmen \u00fcretim cephesinde rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fc ve verimlili\u011finin artam\u0131yor olmas\u0131, mali sekt\u00f6rde ya\u015fanan b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ve al\u0131nan risklerdeki art\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n geriliyor olmas\u0131 gibi fakt\u00f6rler de eklenince gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik beklentilerin olumsuzla\u015fmas\u0131 engellenemiyor. Gerek ulusal gerekse k\u00fcresel d\u00fczeyde, bor\u00e7 ve harcamalarda ya\u015fanan art\u0131\u015f\u0131n gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fememesi ve sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc erimesinin kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131namamas\u0131 sorunlardaki a\u011f\u0131rla\u015fman\u0131n temel sebebi olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Orta vadede g\u00fcvensizli\u011fin artmas\u0131 ve istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k potansiyelinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ihtimali art\u0131yor. Bu ko\u015fullar\u0131n ne yaparlarsa yaps\u0131nlar Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131, di\u011fer d\u00fczenleyici kurumlara ve siyasi iradeleri itibar kayb\u0131na mahkum etti\u011fini dikkate almak gerekiyor. Zaten uzunca bir s\u00fcredir k\u0131sa vadeye odaklanarak beklentiler yolu ile g\u00fcn\u00fcn kurtar\u0131lmas\u0131 bu a\u00e7mazdan kaynaklanan bir durum idi ve b\u00f6yle devam edemeyece\u011fi biliniyordu&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>2011 y\u0131l\u0131 genelinde \u00fclkemizde Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n para politikas\u0131 uygulamalar\u0131nda ya\u015fanan farkl\u0131la\u015fmalar s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olmayan bir rotada hareket yetene\u011finin daral\u0131yor olmas\u0131ndan kaynaklanan bir durum idi, ve eski uygulamalara ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde devam etmenin pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde g\u00fcndeme gelmi\u015fti. Bir yandan harcama art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ve bu kanalla cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki y\u00fckseli\u015fi kontrol alt\u0131na almak, di\u011fer yandan a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferli T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 nedeniyle \u00fcretim cephesinde ya\u015fanacak yaprak d\u00f6k\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6nlemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak gerekiyordu ve zorunlu olarak enflasyonun ge\u00e7ici olarak y\u00fckseli\u015fine izin vermek d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda bir alternatif kalmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu \u00e7abalarda mali sekt\u00f6r ve finansal sermaye anlay\u0131\u015fl\u0131 olmak ve desteklemek yerine \u015f\u0131mar\u0131k \u00e7ocuk rol\u00fcn\u00fc oynamakta \u0131srar etti, tepkisel bir tav\u0131r sergilemekten vazge\u00e7medi. Sonu\u00e7ta yaln\u0131z Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n de\u011fil, t\u00fcm ekonomik akt\u00f6rlerin az veya \u00e7\u0131k ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z say\u0131labilece\u011fi bir d\u00f6nem ya\u015fand\u0131; gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik endi\u015feler artt\u0131 ve sorunlar a\u011f\u0131rla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda faizleri y\u00fckseltmeden zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oranlar\u0131 kullan\u0131larak s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6neminde olumsuzla\u015fan k\u00fcresel ko\u015fullar nedeniyle harcamalardaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ivme kaybedece\u011fi ve cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeye ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc ile gev\u015fetildi. Fakat T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n enflasyonda s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 yaratacak \u015fekilde de\u011fer kaybetmeye devam etmesi nedeniyle faizleri kullanarak para politikas\u0131n\u0131 yeniden s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak zorunda kal\u0131nd\u0131. Fakat bu yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131n umulan de\u011fil de umulmayan t\u00fcrden tepkileri devreye sokmas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 yaratt\u0131; bu durum ileti\u015fim yetersizli\u011finden \u00e7ok sorunlar\u0131n iyice a\u011f\u0131rla\u015fm\u0131\u015f ve hareket yetene\u011finin \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azalm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131ndan kaynakland\u0131. Yumu\u015fak ini\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azald\u0131. Orta vadeli s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir e\u011filimler yerine k\u0131sa vadeli spek\u00fclatif y\u00f6nlendirme ile durumu idare etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131kla tan\u0131\u015fmak mecburiyeti kap\u0131y\u0131 \u00e7almaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>2012 y\u0131l\u0131 bir \u00f6ncekine g\u00f6re, ger\u00e7eklerin artan \u00e7ekim g\u00fcc\u00fc nedeniyle daha zor bir d\u00f6nem olacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Riskten ka\u00e7\u0131nma e\u011filiminin dalgal\u0131 bir \u015fekilde art\u0131yor olmas\u0131 daha farkl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeyi zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. K\u0131sa vadeli spek\u00fclatif beklentiler ile ger\u00e7eklerden uzakla\u015farak oldu\u011fundan daha iyi g\u00f6r\u00fcnme e\u011filimi g\u00fcndemde oldu\u011fu s\u00fcrece Merkez bankalar\u0131 ba\u015frol oyuncusu haline gelmi\u015f finansal piyasalar taraf\u0131ndan \u00e7ok alk\u0131\u015flanm\u0131\u015f, geni\u015f kesimlerin durumunun olumsuzla\u015fmas\u0131 g\u00f6rmezden gelinmi\u015fti. Ger\u00e7eklerden uzakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a a\u011f\u0131rla\u015fan sorunlar nedeniyle ger\u00e7eklerin \u00e7ekim g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve her \u015feyin de\u011fi\u015fece\u011fini, bu y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finde en ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnenlerin ac\u0131mas\u0131zca ele\u015ftirilmeye ba\u015flanaca\u011f\u0131 unutulmu\u015ftu&#8230; \u00c7ok uzun bir s\u00fcredir ger\u00e7ekleri b\u0131k\u0131p usanmadan hat\u0131rlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131 felaket tellal\u0131 diyerek d\u0131\u015flamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar, bindikleri dal\u0131 kestiklerini ve kendi felaketlerini haz\u0131rlad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7 de olsa alg\u0131lamaya ba\u015flad\u0131lar&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bir seneyi daha geride b\u0131rakmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u015fu g\u00fcnlerde, hangi \u00f6l\u00e7ekte olursa olsun karar alma konumundaki kesimlerin olduk\u00e7a s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011fu dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. \u00d6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azalan i\u015flem&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":931,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9308","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9308","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/21"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9308"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9308\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/931"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9308"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9308"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9308"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}