{"id":9274,"date":"2011-12-24T10:56:51","date_gmt":"2011-12-24T07:56:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=9274"},"modified":"2011-12-24T10:56:59","modified_gmt":"2011-12-24T07:56:59","slug":"2012-turkiye-pembe-kugular-yili","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/2012-turkiye-pembe-kugular-yili\/","title":{"rendered":"2012 T\u00fcrkiye Pembe Ku\u011fular Y\u0131l\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bir okurum, \u201cYav, bayd\u0131m beee. Biraz da iyimser bir \u015feyler yaz, Pembe Ku\u011fular\u2019dan bahset\u201d demi\u015f.\u00a0 Emriniz olur, ge\u00e7irdi\u011fim zor ameliyattan sonra art\u0131k ben sadece sizin i\u00e7in var\u0131m.\u00a0 Zaman makinam\u0131za girelim, ve 3 Ocak 2013\u2019e d\u00f6nelim.\u00a0 Size o g\u00fcn yazaca\u011f\u0131m makaleyi \u015fimdiden g\u00f6stereyim:<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2496611359\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Kriz Y\u0131l\u0131 Tahmini\u00a0 Benim Popi\u015fimde Patlad\u0131<\/p>\n<p>2011\u2019in sonunda kaleme ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m makalelere bak\u0131yorum, \u201cKriz \u00e7\u0131kacak\u201d diye y\u00fcksek sesle ba\u011f\u0131rm\u0131\u015f\u0131m.\u00a0 Halbuki T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi ve piyasalar\u0131 son ony\u0131l\u0131n ne parlak performans\u0131n\u0131 segiledi\u011fi bir y\u0131l\u0131 kapatt\u0131.\u00a0 \u201cNerde yan\u0131ld\u0131m, nerde hata ettim?\u201d gibi sorularla \u00f6zg\u00fcvenimi erozyona u\u011frataca\u011f\u0131m\u0131 sananlar aldan\u0131yor. \u00a0Ben bu piyasalarda \u015f\u00f6hretimi 1999\u2019da Rusya hem morataryum hem devaluasyon ilan etmeden 4 saat \u00f6ne \u201cRusya\u2019da kriz filan yok.\u00a0 \u015eimdi gidin ve rahat bir hafta sonu ge\u00e7irin. Kriz olacaksa, \u00f6nce ben duyar\u0131m ve size haber veririm\u201d diye yazarak yapm\u0131\u015f bir F\u00d6\u015e\u2019\u00fcm (Fevkalada \u00d6zel \u015eah\u0131s). Zaten, yaz\u0131lar\u0131m kesinlikle tahmin niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131maz. Toplumsal huzursuzluk ve manevi \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fcnt\u00fcy\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in CIA taraf\u0131ndan bedeli \u00f6denen anar\u015fiye ge\u00e7i\u015f \u00a0projesine destek amac\u0131yla yaz\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Ama,\u00a0 ge\u00e7en senenin sonunda beni hataya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren baz\u0131 varsay\u0131mlar\u0131n nas\u0131l aniden de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini anlatarak kendimi savunmak isterim. Beni en \u00e7ok \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtan, d\u00f6rt partinin yeni anayasada uzla\u015fmas\u0131 oldu.\u00a0 Aleviler\u2019in ibadet hakk\u0131n\u0131 tan\u0131yarak huzur getiren, \u00a0K\u00fcrtler\u2019in de anayasal haklar\u0131n\u0131 istisnas\u0131z tan\u0131yarak PKK ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fc bitiren, hem de toplumun geni\u015f kesimlerinde AKP\u2019nin otoriter bir rejimin yolunu yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 kayg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 bertaraf eden yeni anayasa T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye 50 y\u0131l yeter.\u00a0 Suriye\u2019de Esat\u2019\u0131n devrilmesi ve Ankara\u2019n\u0131n giri\u015fimleri ile Ba\u011fdat\u2019ta kurulan milli m\u00fctabakat h\u00fck\u00fcmeti de politik riskleri azalt\u0131rken, ihracat\u0131m\u0131zda patlamaya neden oldu.<\/p>\n<p>AB, tahmin etti\u011fim gibi resesyonda, ve bu kafayla giderlerse de ebediyen \u00f6yle kalacak \u015ferefsizler. KKTC\u2019yi Arap Birli\u011fi tan\u0131d\u0131 diye bizimle m\u00fczakereleri donduran Ha\u00e7l\u0131 Kal\u0131nt\u0131lat\u0131\u2019na mustahakt\u0131r. Ancak, Orta Do\u011fu ve Kuzey Afrika\u2019ya artan ihracat\u0131n AB kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 gidermesi umdu\u011fumdan \u00e7ok daha \u00e7abuk ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Bu de\u011fi\u015fimde y\u0131l boyunca ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen yap\u0131sal reformlar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck pay\u0131 var.\u00a0 T\u00fcrkiye art\u0131k her sene kuru y\u00fckselterek rekabet edemeyece\u011fini, tek \u00e7arenin i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verimlili\u011fini art\u0131rmak oldu\u011funu g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u0130thal ikamesi \u00fcretimi destekleyen \u00a0ak\u0131lc\u0131 te\u015fvikler, enerji tassarruf \u00f6nlemleri, i\u015f\u00e7g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda esnekli\u011fi art\u0131ran iki b\u00fcy\u00fck kanun ve tabii en son olarak da vergi rejiminin yenilenmesiyle namusuyla \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan\u0131n daha fazla kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin yolunu a\u00e7an TBMM\u2019ne te\u015fekk\u00fcrler.<\/p>\n<p>Tabii, TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdem Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131 ve Ali Babacan\u2019\u0131n 7 Ocak Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 tarihi ortak a\u00e7\u0131klamayla cari a\u00e7\u0131k sorunun k\u00f6k\u00fcn\u00fc kaz\u0131mak da son derece yararl\u0131yd\u0131. Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00f6zya\u015flar\u0131 i\u00e7inde post-modern para politikas\u0131n\u0131n iflas\u0131n\u0131 kabul edip mert\u00e7e faizleri 300 baz puan y\u00fckseltmesi, kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Babacan\u2019\u0131n istikrar\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda t\u00fcm b\u00fct\u00e7e harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 nominal olarak donduruldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 ak\u0131lalmazd\u0131.\u00a0 \u00d6nce piyasalarda doping etkisi yaparak s\u0131cak paray\u0131 \u00e7ekti, ard\u0131ndan i\u00e7 talebi h\u0131zla so\u011futarak \u00a0cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n sene sonunda 40 milyar dolar ya da GSYIH\u2019\u0131n %4.5\u2019\u00fc gibi y\u00f6netilebilir bir d\u00fczeye inmesinde ba\u015frolu oynad\u0131 yap\u0131sal reformlar ve yeni makro-politika bile\u015fimi.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ekonomihaberyorum.com\/2012-turkiye-pembe-kugular-yili\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">BURAYI<\/a> ziyaret ediniz.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bir okurum, \u201cYav, bayd\u0131m beee. Biraz da iyimser bir \u015feyler yaz, Pembe Ku\u011fular\u2019dan bahset\u201d demi\u015f.\u00a0 Emriniz olur, ge\u00e7irdi\u011fim zor ameliyattan sonra art\u0131k ben sadece sizin&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":927,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9274","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9274","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9274"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9274\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/927"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9274"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9274"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9274"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}