{"id":9188,"date":"2011-12-22T10:12:05","date_gmt":"2011-12-22T07:12:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=9188"},"modified":"2011-12-22T10:12:14","modified_gmt":"2011-12-22T07:12:14","slug":"cin-uzerine-karamsar-yorumlar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cin-uzerine-karamsar-yorumlar\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7in \u00dczerine Karamsar Yorumlar"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcketmeyen bu \u00fclkede \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 artan yat\u0131r\u0131mlarla olu\u015fturulan kapasiteyle \u00fcretilecek \u00fcr\u00fcnleri kim alacak?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2052442801\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Herkes Avrupa ile u\u011fra\u015f\u0131yorken \u00c7in ekonomisindeki gidi\u015fat\u0131n gidi\u015fat olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair son zamanlarda konunun uzmanlar\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli uyar\u0131lar geliyor. Son \u00fc\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde bu t\u00fcr d\u00f6rt tane yaz\u0131 okudum. S\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc edece\u011fim birinci yaz\u0131 Bloomberg\u2019in internet sayfas\u0131nda 19 Aral\u0131k tarihinde \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Yaz\u0131da \u00c7in\u2019deki bankalar\u0131n kredi risklerinin a\u00e7\u0131klanan de\u011ferlerden daha y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekiliyor. Kredi riskinin temel nedenlerinden biri \u015fu: K\u00fcresel krizden m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funca az etkilenmek i\u00e7in yerel y\u00f6netimler b\u00fcy\u00fck in\u015faat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na giri\u015ftiler. Bu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar \u00e7e\u015fitli y\u00f6ntemlerce finanse edilse de sonu\u00e7ta risk bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Roubini de uyard\u0131\u00a0<\/strong><br \/>\n\u0130kinci uyar\u0131 Nouriel Roubini\u2019den geldi. \u00c7in\u2019de konut ve arsa fiyatlar\u0131nda olu\u015fmaya ba\u015flayan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 halinde, yerel y\u00f6netimlerin ald\u0131klar\u0131 bor\u00e7lar\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6deyemeyeceklerini belirtiyor. Sat\u0131lmayan in\u015faat metrekaresinde belirgin bir art\u0131\u015f e\u011filimi olu\u015ftu\u011funa vurgu yap\u0131yor. Bunun da bankalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir sorun yarataca\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Temel senaryosunda \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde bu sorun b\u00fcy\u00fck bir bankac\u0131l\u0131k krizine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fm\u00fcyor. Ama \u00c7in ekonomisinin giderek daha yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. 2010\u2019da y\u00fczde 10.4 olan b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n 2012-13\u2019te y\u00fczde 7 dolaylar\u0131na, 2014\u2019te ise y\u00fczde 5.4\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi tahminini yap\u0131yor.<br \/>\n\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc uyar\u0131, Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler Ticaret ve Kalk\u0131nma Konferans\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (UNCTAD) eski ba\u015fekonomisti hocam Y\u0131lmaz Aky\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn. \u0130ktisat ve Toplum dergisinin birka\u00e7 hafta \u00f6nce g\u00fcn y\u00fcz\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kan on \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc say\u0131s\u0131nda \u2018K\u00fcresel Kriz ve Y\u00fckselen Ekonomilerde B\u00fcy\u00fcme ve \u0130stikrar: \u00c7ift \u015eeritli Yol mu, Yoksa Yolun Sonu mu?\u2019 ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir yaz\u0131s\u0131 yer ald\u0131. D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc uyar\u0131y\u0131 ise Nobel iktisat \u00f6d\u00fcl\u00fc sahibi Paul Krugman 18 Aral\u0131k\u2019ta New York Times\u2019taki k\u00f6\u015fesinden yapt\u0131.<br \/>\nBu son iki yaz\u0131 \u00c7in ekonomisinde giderek derinle\u015fen ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez bir bi\u00e7im alma yolunda h\u0131zla ilerleyen \u015fu temel soruna dikkat \u00e7ekiyor: \u00c7in ekonomisi h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye kar\u015f\u0131n \u00c7in\u2019de t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131laya oran\u0131 sadece y\u00fczde 35 d\u00fczeyinde ve \u2018normal\u2019 bir ekonomidekinin \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda. Y\u0131lmaz Aky\u00fcz \u015fu rakamlar\u0131 veriyor: 2008\u2019e kadar \u00c7in\u2019de \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim y\u0131lda ortalama y\u00fczde 8\u2019in alt\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcrken milli gelir y\u00fczde 10.5 oran\u0131nda artm\u0131\u015f. Aradaki talep bo\u015flu\u011fu da y\u0131lda ortalama y\u00fczde 25 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ihracat ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak y\u00fczde 13 dolay\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcyen yat\u0131r\u0131mlar ile kapat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00dcr\u00fcnleri kim alacak?\u00a0<\/strong><br \/>\nK\u0131sacas\u0131 \u00c7in, milli gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile t\u00fcketim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ihracat ve yat\u0131r\u0131m ile kapatarak h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bug\u00fcne kadar ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 oldu da. Sorun \u015fu ki ABD ekonomisinin yava\u015f\u00e7a toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n ise sorunlarla bo\u011fu\u015ftu\u011fu ve bu nedenle uzunca bir s\u00fcre eski b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 yakalayamayaca\u011f\u0131 bu ortamda, ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki ihracat performans\u0131na ula\u015fmas\u0131 zor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor \u00c7in\u2019in. Kald\u0131 ki toparlansa bile, konut balonunun olu\u015ftu\u011fu d\u00f6nemdeki t\u00fcketim art\u0131\u015f oranlar\u0131n\u0131n ABD\u2019de bir daha ya\u015fanmas\u0131 zor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle de \u00c7in\u2019in ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n eskisi kadar olamayaca\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekiliyor.<br \/>\nT\u00fcketmeyen bu \u00fclkede \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 artan yat\u0131r\u0131mlarla olu\u015fturulan kapasiteyle \u00fcretilecek \u00fcr\u00fcnleri kim alacak? Ek olarak yaz\u0131n\u0131n giri\u015finde s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc etti\u011fim ve yerel y\u00f6netimlerce y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen b\u00fcy\u00fck bir in\u015faat faaliyeti var. Bu faaliyet ucuz ve bol banka kredisi ile finanse ediliyor. K\u0131sacas\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019de \u00f6nemli bir balonun olu\u015ftu\u011fundan ve patlamas\u0131ndan korkuluyor. Elbette \u00c7in\u2019in kar\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 \u015fimdilik bir olas\u0131l\u0131k. Kar\u0131\u015fmayabilir de. \u00dcstelik kar\u0131\u015fsa bile bunun zamanlamas\u0131n\u0131 kestirmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. \u00d6zellikle ABD\u2019den sa\u00e7\u0131lan likiditenin 2012\u2019de geri \u00e7ekilmeyece\u011fi ve FED\u2019in faiz artt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na ba\u015flamayaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131n\u0131nca. Ancak bu uyar\u0131lara da \u00f6nem vermek gerekiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcketmeyen bu \u00fclkede \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 artan yat\u0131r\u0131mlarla olu\u015fturulan kapasiteyle \u00fcretilecek \u00fcr\u00fcnleri kim alacak? Herkes Avrupa ile u\u011fra\u015f\u0131yorken \u00c7in ekonomisindeki gidi\u015fat\u0131n gidi\u015fat olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair son zamanlarda&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9188","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9188","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9188"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9188\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9188"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9188"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9188"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}