{"id":9142,"date":"2011-12-21T10:33:49","date_gmt":"2011-12-21T07:33:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=9142"},"modified":"2011-12-21T10:33:59","modified_gmt":"2011-12-21T07:33:59","slug":"cinden-turkiyedeki-tarimsal-verimlilige-bir-yolculuk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cinden-turkiyedeki-tarimsal-verimlilige-bir-yolculuk\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7in&#8217;den T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;deki Tar\u0131msal Verimlili\u011fe Bir Yolculuk"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Avrupa&#8217;daki<\/span>\u00a0krize odaklan\u0131rken \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli ba\u015fka bir b\u00f6lgeyi g\u00f6z ard\u0131 ediyoruz: \u00c7in. Son iki hafta i\u00e7inde \u00c7in&#8217;deki gidi\u015fat\u0131n gidi\u015fat olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair konunun uzman\u0131 iki iktisat\u00e7\u0131dan dikkat \u00e7ekici uyar\u0131lar geldi. \u0130lk uyar\u0131y\u0131 Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler Ticaret ve Kalk\u0131nma Konferans\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n (UNCTAD&#8217;\u0131n) eski ba\u015f ekonomisti hocam Y\u0131lmaz Aky\u00fcz dillendirdi. \u0130ktisat ve Toplum dergisinin birka\u00e7 hafta \u00f6nce g\u00fcn y\u00fcz\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kan on \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc say\u0131s\u0131nda &#8216;K\u00fcresel Kriz ve Y\u00fckselen Ekonomilerde B\u00fcy\u00fcme ve \u0130stikrar: \u00c7ift \u015eeritli Yol mu, Yoksa Yolun Sonu mu?&#8217; ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir yaz\u0131s\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Aky\u00fcz, \u015fu anda Cenevre South Centre&#8217;nin ba\u015fekonomisti. \u0130kinci uyar\u0131y\u0131 ise Nobel iktisat \u00f6d\u00fcl\u00fc sahibi Paul Krugman 18 Aral\u0131k&#8217;ta New York Times&#8217;deki k\u00f6\u015fesinden yapt\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2364780525\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00c7in nereye?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Her iki yaz\u0131 da \u00c7in ekonomisinde giderek derinle\u015fen ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez bir bi\u00e7im alma yolunda h\u0131zla ilerleyen \u015fu temel soruna dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. \u00c7in ekonomisi h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme kar\u015f\u0131n, \u00c7in&#8217;de t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131laya (GSYH) oran\u0131 sadece y\u00fczde 35 d\u00fczeyinde. &#8216;Sadece&#8217; diyorum; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu oran &#8216;normal&#8217; bir ekonomide y\u00fczde 70 dolaylar\u0131nda. Mesela T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de b\u00f6yle, ABD&#8217;de de. Aky\u00fcz&#8217;\u00fcn rakamlar\u0131yla: 2008&#8217;e kadar \u00c7in&#8217;de \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim y\u0131lda ortalama y\u00fczde 8&#8217;in alt\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcrken milli gelir y\u00fczde 10.5 oran\u0131nda artm\u0131\u015f. Aradaki talep bo\u015flu\u011fu da y\u0131lda ortalama y\u00fczde 25 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ihracat ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak y\u00fczde 13 dolay\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcyen yat\u0131r\u0131mlar ile kapat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n<p>K\u0131sacas\u0131 \u00c7in, milli gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile t\u00fcketim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ihracat ve yat\u0131r\u0131m ile kapatarak h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bug\u00fcne kadar ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 oldu da. Sorun \u015fu ki, ABD ekonomisinin yava\u015f\u00e7a toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131, Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n ise sorunlarla bo\u011fu\u015ftu\u011fu ve bu nedenle uzunca bir s\u00fcre eski b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 yakalayamayaca\u011f\u0131 bu ortamda, ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki ihracat performans\u0131na ula\u015fmas\u0131 zor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor \u00c7in&#8217;in. Kald\u0131 ki, toparlansa bile, konut balonunun olu\u015ftu\u011fu d\u00f6nemdeki t\u00fcketim art\u0131\u015f oranlar\u0131n\u0131n ABD&#8217;de bir daha ya\u015fanmas\u0131 zor g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle de \u00c7in&#8217;in ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n eskisi kadar olamayaca\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekiliyor.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcketmeyen bu \u00fclkede \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 artan yat\u0131r\u0131mlarla olu\u015fturulan kapasiteyle \u00fcretilecek \u00fcr\u00fcnleri kim alacak? Ek olarak k\u00fcresel kriz s\u0131ras\u0131nda uygulanan politikalar nedeniyle \u00c7in&#8217;de \u00f6nemli bir in\u015faat faaliyeti olu\u015ftu\u011fu belirtiliyor. Bu faaliyet ucuz ve bol banka kredisi ile finanse ediliyor. K\u0131sacas\u0131 \u00c7in&#8217;de \u00f6nemli bir balonun olu\u015ftu\u011fundan korkuluyor. Balonlar\u0131n ne kadar \u015fi\u015ferlerse o kadar patlamaya yakla\u015ft\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 biliyoruz. Bu t\u00fcr bir patlamadan \u00fcrk\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Hele Avrupa bu haldeyken.<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00c7in&#8217;de pi\u015fen T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;ye\u2026<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Ge\u00e7en haftaki uzun yaz\u0131mda Avrupa ve ABD&#8217;deki durumu ve olas\u0131 geli\u015fmeleri inceledikten sonra T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;ye d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f ve 2012 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin baz\u0131 senaryolar vermi\u015ftim. Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc senaryo \u015fuydu: ABD&#8217;de i\u015fler yava\u015f\u00e7a ray\u0131na giriyor, bu nedenle ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (FED) yeni bir parasal geni\u015flemeye gitmiyordu. Ama vaktiyle bol kep\u00e7e sa\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 paralar\u0131 da 2012&#8217;de geri \u00e7ekmeye giri\u015fmiyordu. Keza politika faizinde de bir art\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecini ba\u015flatm\u0131yordu. \u00d6te yandan, ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imi \u00f6ncesinde yeni bir mali geni\u015fleme m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyordu.<\/p>\n<p>Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, Avrupa&#8217;da i\u015fler bug\u00fcnk\u00fcne k\u0131yasla bir par\u00e7a daha k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fiyordu. Kriz daha da derinle\u015fmiyordu ama Avrupal\u0131lar debelenmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyorlard\u0131. Bu ortamda Avrupal\u0131 bankalar taze sermaye bulamayacaklar\u0131 i\u00e7in, sa\u011flamalar\u0131 gereken sermaye-kredi oran\u0131n\u0131 bilan\u00e7o k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclterek sa\u011flamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yorlard\u0131. \u00d6te yandan, Avrupa&#8217;daki sorunlu \u00fclkeler t\u00fcm 2012 boyunca b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n ve vadesi gelen bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n finansman\u0131 i\u00e7in yeniden bor\u00e7 bulmakta zorluk \u00e7ekiyorlard\u0131. Sonu\u00e7ta Avrupa ekonomisi ya \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcyor ya da bir miktar k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcyordu.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2149592522\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bu temel senaryo alt\u0131nda, 2012&#8217;de T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin ula\u015fabilece\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 1-3 aras\u0131nda bir yerde olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmi\u015ftim. Zira birincisi, s\u00f6z konusu ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda \u015firketlerimiz ve bankalar\u0131m\u0131z taze finansman bulmakta zorlanacaklar. \u0130kincisi, ihracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n yar\u0131ya yak\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z Avrupa&#8217;ya eski d\u00fczeyde mal satmakta talep engeliyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131z. Daha k\u00f6t\u00fc de olabilir: Avrupa&#8217;da i\u015flerin k\u00f6t\u00fcye gitmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 az de\u011fil. Bu durumda ekonomimizin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme ihtimali de var.<\/p>\n<p>Bu ortamda \u00c7in&#8217;in ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131n belaya girmesinin bizim a\u00e7\u0131m\u0131zdan \u00f6nemli etkileri olaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k. Belki baz\u0131 ihracat pazarlar\u0131m\u0131zda bir miktar rahatlayabiliriz ama k\u00fcrenin ne denli kar\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bizim a\u00e7\u0131m\u0131zdan net sonu\u00e7 k\u00f6t\u00fc olur. Elbette, \u00c7in&#8217;in kar\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 \u015fimdilik bir olas\u0131l\u0131k. Kar\u0131\u015fmayabilir de. \u00dcstelik kar\u0131\u015fsa bile bunun zamanlamas\u0131n\u0131 kestirmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. \u00d6zellikle ABD&#8217;den sa\u00e7\u0131lan likiditenin 2012&#8217;de geri \u00e7ekilmeyece\u011fi ve FED&#8217;in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na ba\u015flamayaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131n\u0131nca. Ancak bu iki uzman\u0131n s\u00f6ylediklerine de \u00f6nem vermek gerekiyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Uzun d\u00f6nemli bir perspektif\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>S\u00f6z b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden a\u00e7\u0131lm\u0131\u015fken salt 2012 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ile yetinmeyeyim. Haz\u0131r yeni y\u0131la giriyorken daha uzun d\u00f6nemli bir perspektifte yeniden bakay\u0131m b\u00fcy\u00fcme olgusuna. Sadece &#8216;takvim y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n&#8217; de\u011fi\u015fmesi de\u011fil bu yeniden bak\u0131\u015f\u0131n nedeni. \u0130ki yeni \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmadan da s\u00f6z etmek istiyorum bu vesileyle.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-619468374\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Uzun d\u00f6nemli b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye yeniden bakarken eski tablo ve grafikleri kullanmak olmaz; isteyenler D\u00fcnya&#8217;n\u0131n ar\u015fivinden eski yaz\u0131lar\u0131ma bakabilirler, yenilerini kullanmak gerekir. Tablo 1&#8217;de, 1950&#8217;den bu yana, onar y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00f6nemler itibar\u0131yla ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na reel (1998 fiyatlar\u0131yla lira cinsinden) gelir d\u00fczeyimizin geli\u015fimine ili\u015fkin bilgiler yer al\u0131yor. \u0130kinci s\u00fctunda, d\u00f6nem sonundaki fert ba\u015f\u0131na reel GSYH&#8217;nin, d\u00f6nem ba\u015f\u0131ndakine k\u0131yasla ka\u00e7 kat daha y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu g\u00f6steriliyor. Son s\u00fctunda ise ilgili on y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00f6nemdeki ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na ortalama GSYH art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 var.<\/p>\n<p>1950&#8217;den bu yana fert ba\u015f\u0131na gelirimiz ortalama olarak y\u00fczde 2.58 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f. 2000&#8217;den bu yana ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fimiz ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 da bu d\u00fczeyde: Y\u00fczde 2.55. Oysa 1951-1960, 1961-1970 ve 1981-1990 d\u00f6nemlerinde fert ba\u015f\u0131na daha y\u00fcksek bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 yakalam\u0131\u015f\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>Bu, yurti\u00e7inde d\u00f6nemler aras\u0131 yap\u0131lan bir kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma. Bir de \u00fclkeleraras\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma yapmakta yarar var. Bu kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 yapabilmek i\u00e7in \u00fclkelerin GSYH&#8217;lerini ayn\u0131 para birimi cinsinden \u00f6l\u00e7mek gerekiyor. Bu gerekli ama yeterli de\u011fil. Ek olarak her \u00fclkenin fertlerinin sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcne g\u00f6re GSYH&#8217;lerini d\u00fczenlemek laz\u0131m. \u00c7ok \u015f\u00fck\u00fcr bu zor i\u015flemleri yapanlar var: Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler, D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131, IMF ve Pennslyvania \u00dcniversitesi. Hepsini de internetten bulmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. IMF&#8217;nin verilerini kullan\u0131yorum. Di\u011ferlerini de kullansam sonu\u00e7 fark etmiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Grafiklerde T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelir d\u00fczeyinin (sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc ile d\u00fczenlenmi\u015f dolar cinsinden) G-7 \u00fclkelerinin ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelir d\u00fczeyine oran\u0131 yer al\u0131yor. G-7 \u00fclkelerinin ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelir d\u00fczeyi, bu \u00fclkelerin her birinin ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelir d\u00fczeyinin \u00fclkelerin GSYH&#8217;leri kullan\u0131larak hesaplanan a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 ortalamas\u0131ndan olu\u015fuyor. Ayr\u0131nt\u0131 bir tarafa, 1980-2010 aras\u0131nda bu oran y\u00fczde 24 ile y\u00fczde 34 aras\u0131nda oynam\u0131\u015f. Ortalamas\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 28. Son y\u0131llarda bir miktar y\u00fckselme e\u011filimi var ama \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f da yok.<\/p>\n<p>Oran\u0131n 1980-2010 d\u00f6nemindeki seyrini iki ayr\u0131 grafikte g\u00f6steriyorum. Grafiklerin birbirlerinden ayr\u0131ld\u0131klar\u0131 tek nokta dikey eksenleri. \u0130lkinde eksen y\u00fczde 0-100 aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiyorken, ikincisinde y\u00fczde 22-36 aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiyor. \u0130ki farkl\u0131 eksen kullanmam\u0131n tek nedeni, ayn\u0131 olgunun nas\u0131l farkl\u0131 yarg\u0131lara yol a\u00e7acak \u015fekilde verilebilece\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekmek. Bu g\u00f6z oyunu bir tarafa, sonu\u00e7 ayn\u0131; zenginlerle aram\u0131zdaki gelir farkl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 son otuz y\u0131lda kapatmak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011fumuz s\u00f6ylenemez.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<table width=\"349\" border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<colgroup>\n<col width=\"109\" \/>\n<col width=\"132\" \/>\n<col width=\"108\" \/><\/colgroup>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"3\" width=\"349\" height=\"20\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\"><strong>Ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na reel gelir (GSYH) d\u00fczeyimizin geli\u015fimi<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\"><span style=\"color: #fa7d00; font-family: Calibri;\"><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\"><strong>Ka\u00e7 kat artt\u0131?<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td><strong><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">Ortalama % art\u0131\u015f<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">1951-1960<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">14611<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">15036<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">1961-1970<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">11689<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">28522<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">1971-1980<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">43101<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">25934<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">1981-1990<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">12420<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">35096<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">1991-2000<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">44927<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">40757<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">2001-2010<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">47119<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">20121<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">E\u011fitim herkese l\u00e2z\u0131m\u2026<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u0130zak Atiyas ve Ozan Bar\u0131\u015f&#8217;\u0131n kaleme ald\u0131klar\u0131 &#8216;T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin K\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131: Bir \u00d6nceliklendirme \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131&#8221; bu sonucun arkas\u0131nda yatan temel nedenleri saptamay\u0131 ama\u00e7l\u0131yor. T\u00dcS\u0130AD raporu olarak Kas\u0131m ay\u0131n\u0131n sonunda g\u00fcn y\u00fcz\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kan ara\u015ft\u0131rmada, yazarlar, iki sorunun \u00f6ncelikle \u00fczerine gidilmesi gerekti\u011fi sonucuna ula\u015f\u0131yorlar. \u0130lk olarak e\u011fitimin d\u00fczeyi ve kalitesinde \u00f6nemli bir iyile\u015fmeye ihtiya\u00e7 oldu\u011funun alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7iziyorlar. \u0130kinci olarak da \u00fcretim ve ihracat\u0131n teknolojik d\u00fczeyinde ciddi bir iyile\u015fme gerekti\u011fini vurguluyorlar.<\/p>\n<p>Her iki unsurun birbirleriyle ili\u015fkili olduklar\u0131n\u0131 da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebiliriz. E\u011fitim hem be\u015feri sermayeyi art\u0131r\u0131yor hem de teknolojik geli\u015fmeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 oluyor. Baz\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar, daha y\u00fcksek ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelir d\u00fczeyine ula\u015fmak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan be\u015feri sermaye ile fiziksel sermayenin benzer \u00f6neme sahip olduklar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyorlar.<\/p>\n<p>Uluslararas\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmalar ne yaz\u0131k ki T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;deki ortalama e\u011fitim d\u00fczeyi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan iyi \u015feyler s\u00f6ylemiyorlar bizlere. Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler&#8217;in yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir &#8216;Be\u015feri Kalk\u0131nma Endeksi&#8217; var. D\u00f6rt alt de\u011fi\u015fkenden elde ediliyor: Ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelir d\u00fczeyi, do\u011fan bebe\u011fin \u00f6mr\u00fcn\u00fcn ka\u00e7 y\u0131l olaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi, 25 ya\u015f\u0131ndakilerin ortalama ka\u00e7 y\u0131l e\u011fitim ald\u0131klar\u0131 ve okula ba\u015flama ya\u015f\u0131ndaki \u00e7ocuklar\u0131n ka\u00e7 y\u0131l e\u011fitim g\u00f6receklerine ili\u015fkin beklenti.<\/p>\n<p>2011 y\u0131l\u0131 endeksi yenilerde yay\u0131nland\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye 187 \u00fclke i\u00e7inde 92nci s\u0131rada. \u00dclkeler be\u015feri geli\u015fmi\u015flik d\u00fczeylerine g\u00f6re d\u00f6rt gruba ayr\u0131l\u0131yorlar: \u00c7ok y\u00fcksek, y\u00fcksek, orta ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. T\u00fcrkiye ikinci grubun sondan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc s\u0131ras\u0131nda. Bu d\u00f6rt de\u011fi\u015fkenden sadece 25 ya\u015f\u0131ndakilerin ortalama ka\u00e7 y\u0131l e\u011fitim ald\u0131klar\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise s\u0131ralamadaki yerimiz belirgin bi\u00e7imde k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fiyor: 126nc\u0131l\u0131\u011fa geriliyoruz. \u0130kinci e\u011fitim de\u011fi\u015fkeni olan &#8216;okula ba\u015flama ya\u015f\u0131ndaki \u00e7ocuklar\u0131n ka\u00e7 y\u0131l e\u011fitim g\u00f6recekleri&#8217; a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan s\u0131ralama yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda da gerilerde yer al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Dikkat ederseniz, endekste yer alan e\u011fitim de\u011fi\u015fkenleri, e\u011fitim s\u00fcreleri ile ilgililer. Oysa s\u00fcre kadar e\u011fitimin kalitesi de \u00f6nemli. OECD, e\u011fitimin kalitesine ili\u015fkin \u00f6nemli \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar yap\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar da uluslararas\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma yapmaya olanak veriyorlar. Bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n en bilineni PISA s\u0131nav sonu\u00e7lar\u0131. S\u0131nava giren \u00f6\u011frencilerin ortalamas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye 2009 y\u0131l\u0131nda 65 \u00fclke i\u00e7inde 41inci. Bu a\u00e7\u0131dan da iyi durumda de\u011filiz.<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Tar\u0131mda verimlilik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olunca\u2026<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>S\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc edece\u011fim ikinci \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma rahmetli Merih Celasun hocam\u0131z\u0131n an\u0131s\u0131na TEPAV taraf\u0131ndan d\u00fczenlenen bilimsel yar\u0131\u015fman\u0131n birincisi olan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma. Ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015f\u00f6yle: &#8220;T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de Tar\u0131m Sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde Verimlilik ve B\u00fcy\u00fcme&#8221;. G\u00fcney California \u00dcniversitesi&#8217;nden Ay\u015fe \u0130mrohoro\u011flu ve Selahattin \u0130mrohoro\u011flu ile Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;ndan Murat \u00dcng\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan kalem al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f. Bu yar\u0131\u015fman\u0131n j\u00fcrisi Daron Acemo\u011flu, Sumru Altu\u011f, Hasan Ersel, Ziya \u00d6ni\u015f, \u015eevket Pamuk ve Dani Rodrik&#8217;ten olu\u015ftu. Yar\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u00f6d\u00fcl t\u00f6reninin 20 Haziran 2012&#8217;de Daron Acemo\u011flu&#8217;nun verece\u011fi dersle ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilece\u011fini not d\u00fc\u015feyim. Dersin ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015f\u00f6yle: &#8220;Baz\u0131 Milletler Neden Ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z Olur?&#8221; \u0130lk grafi\u011fin ima ettikleri dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu konu\u015fmadan al\u0131nacak \u00f6nemli dersler oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7al\u0131\u015fma, T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131 milli gelirin Yunanistan, Portekiz ve \u0130spanya&#8217;n\u0131n ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na milli gelirlerine oran\u0131ndaki gerilemenin nedenlerini sorguluyor. S\u00f6z konusu oran, 1960 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 73 iken 1977 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 50&#8217;ye d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve son y\u0131llara kadar da bu d\u00fczeyde kald\u0131. Yazarlar\u0131n ula\u015ft\u0131klar\u0131 sonu\u00e7, bu gerilemenin as\u0131l olarak tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bi\u00e7iminde. Bu olgunun nedenlerini anlamak i\u00e7in ise tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc aleyhine uygulanan politikalar\u0131n dikkatle incelenmesi gerekti\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekiyorlar.<\/p>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7lara g\u00f6re, \u0130spanya&#8217;n\u0131n 1968 ile 2005 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda elde etti\u011fi tar\u0131msal verimlilik art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131n\u0131 yakalasayd\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye tar\u0131m ekonomisinden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 uzakla\u015fabilir ve toplam ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131 milli gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek olabilirdi. B\u00f6ylelikle T\u00fcrkiye incelenen \u00fclkelerden geri kalmayacakt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Avrupa&#8217;daki\u00a0krize odaklan\u0131rken \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli ba\u015fka bir b\u00f6lgeyi g\u00f6z ard\u0131 ediyoruz: \u00c7in. Son iki hafta i\u00e7inde \u00c7in&#8217;deki gidi\u015fat\u0131n gidi\u015fat olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair konunun uzman\u0131 iki iktisat\u00e7\u0131dan dikkat&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9142","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9142","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9142"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9142\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9142"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9142"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9142"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}