{"id":9066,"date":"2011-12-19T15:30:17","date_gmt":"2011-12-19T12:30:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=9066"},"modified":"2011-12-19T15:30:25","modified_gmt":"2011-12-19T12:30:25","slug":"2012-yili-tahminleri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/2012-yili-tahminleri\/","title":{"rendered":"2012 Y\u0131l\u0131 Tahminleri"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerle ilgili yeni y\u0131l tahminleri giderek belirginle\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131.<br \/>\nGenelde bu t\u00fcr \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerde bizi yan\u0131ltan olay, beklentilerin bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la bak\u0131larak yap\u0131lmas\u0131d\u0131r. &#8220;Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ne olduysa \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131lda da ona benzer geli\u015fmeler olur&#8221; yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 bir\u00e7o\u011fumuzun benzer tahminler yapmas\u0131 sonucunu do\u011furur.<br \/>\nBu k\u0131s\u0131r d\u00f6ng\u00fcden kurtulmak amac\u0131yla uzun d\u00f6nemleri dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ise ba\u015fka engellerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131r\u0131z.<br \/>\n\u00d6rne\u011fin ge\u00e7mi\u015fte T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;deki politik istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k ve s\u00fcrekli de\u011fi\u015fen h\u00fck\u00fcmetler bu tahminleri yapmada en \u00f6nemli k\u0131s\u0131tt\u0131. \u015eimdi ise 2008 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z krizli y\u0131llar\u0131n anormallikleri beklentilerimizi uzun d\u00f6neme bakarak \u015fekillendirmemize mani oluyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1737095128\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>2012 YILI ZORLUKLARI<\/strong><br \/>\nT\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131la ili\u015fkin makro tahminler yaparken beni zorlayan \u00fc\u00e7 konu oldu.<br \/>\nBirincisi b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ili\u015fkin tahminlerdi.<br \/>\nT\u00fcrkiye, d\u00fcnya ekonomilerinin ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 zor d\u00f6nemler olan 2010 ve 2011 y\u0131llar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131yla ge\u00e7ince, biraz yava\u015flasa bile 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda ayn\u0131 performans\u0131 g\u00f6sterecek diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek normaldi.<br \/>\nOysa \u00f6nce IMF, daha sonra ise baz\u0131 finans kurumlar\u0131 bize ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerini y\u00fczde 0.5 ile 2 aras\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmaya ba\u015flad\u0131lar. Bunun anlam\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda resesyonlu d\u00f6nemlerden ge\u00e7ece\u011fiydi.<br \/>\nBu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n nedeni d\u00fcnyadaki \u00fcretim yava\u015flamas\u0131na paralel olarak gerek d\u0131\u015f ticaret gerekse finansman kanallar\u0131ndaki t\u0131kan\u0131kl\u0131klar\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi duraksataca\u011f\u0131 noktas\u0131nda toplan\u0131yordu. Y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131ktan kaynaklanan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 sonucu d\u0131\u015f finansmanda g\u00f6zlenecek t\u0131kan\u0131kl\u0131klar\u0131n, b\u00fcy\u00fcmemizi olumsuz etkileyece\u011fi bekleniyordu.<br \/>\n\u00c7izilen bu tablonun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Ki\u015fisel olarak b\u00fcy\u00fcmemizin bu kadar d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini beklemiyorum.<br \/>\n\u0130ki gerek\u00e7em var.<br \/>\nBirincisi, kay\u0131td\u0131\u015f\u0131 ekonominin dinamizminin ve s\u00fcregidecek negatif faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi i\u00e7 t\u00fcketimin kolay kolay yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sanm\u0131yorum.<br \/>\n\u0130kincisi, d\u0131\u015f finansmanda bir anda &#8220;durma&#8221; beklemiyorum.<\/p>\n<p><strong>DOLAR KURU VE DI\u015e F\u0130NANSMAN TAHM\u0130NLER\u0130<\/strong><br \/>\n2012 y\u0131l\u0131na ait tahminlerimi zorlayan ikinci konu TL&#8217;nin d\u0131\u015f de\u011feriydi.<br \/>\nBir taraftan Euro&#8217;nun dolara kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer yitirme beklentisi, \u00f6te yandan ise TL&#8217;ye y\u00f6nelik artacak bask\u0131lar, dolar kurunun a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6ne do\u011fru hareketlenece\u011fini bize i\u015faretlemekte.<br \/>\nAncak, Avrupa&#8217;da sorunlar \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeye ba\u015flar ve d\u00fcnyadaki ortam yumu\u015farsa sistemdeki fazla likiditenin gidece\u011fi adreslerden birisinin de T\u00fcrkiye olaca\u011f\u0131 kesin. Bu takdirde TL&#8217;nin de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz.<br \/>\n\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc tahmin zorlu\u011fu d\u0131\u015f finansmanda kendini g\u00f6sterdi. 1987 ile 2010 y\u0131llar\u0131n\u0131 kapsayan grafikten de izlenece\u011fi gibi b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile d\u0131\u015f finansman aras\u0131nda yak\u0131n bir ili\u015fki var.<br \/>\nBu ili\u015fki 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda biraz gev\u015ferse ya da fazla likidite bize y\u00f6nelirse cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 finanse ederek b\u00fcy\u00fcmemizi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebiliriz.<br \/>\nAncak burada bir \u00f6nemli noktay\u0131 unutmayal\u0131m. \u0130\u00e7 t\u00fcketime ve d\u0131\u015f finansmana dayal\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeler uzun \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc olamazlar. S\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir nitelikleri yoktur. Eninde sonunda bir yerde t\u00f6kezlenir.<br \/>\nBu \u00fc\u00e7 zor konu d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131la ait enflasyon, kamu a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131, cari a\u00e7\u0131k, i\u015fsizlik verilerinin tahminleri aras\u0131nda fazla bir fark yok. Herkes ayn\u0131 bekleyi\u015fler i\u00e7inde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerle ilgili yeni y\u0131l tahminleri giderek belirginle\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Genelde bu t\u00fcr \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerde bizi yan\u0131ltan olay, beklentilerin bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la bak\u0131larak yap\u0131lmas\u0131d\u0131r. &#8220;Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ne&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":418,"featured_media":5395,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9066","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9066","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/418"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9066"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9066\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5395"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9066"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9066"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9066"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}