{"id":8980,"date":"2011-12-16T10:13:54","date_gmt":"2011-12-16T07:13:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=8980"},"modified":"2011-12-16T10:14:02","modified_gmt":"2011-12-16T07:14:02","slug":"yeni-veriler-de-iyi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/yeni-veriler-de-iyi\/","title":{"rendered":"Yeni Veriler de \u0130yi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>2012 y\u0131l\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fck de\u011ferlendirmeler \u00e7o\u011funlukla karamsar. Ekonomilerin yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131, kimilerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n, k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli de olsa, negatif olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. Bu t\u00fcr tahminler T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine de uzat\u0131l\u0131yor. Bizim i\u00e7inde b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde ikilere kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren tahminler yap\u0131l\u0131yor. B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131 ile birlikte her t\u00fcrl\u00fc m\u00fcsibetin de hortlay\u0131p, \u00fcst\u00fcm\u00fcze gelece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. K\u0131sacas\u0131, gelecek y\u0131l\u0131n d\u00fcnyada ve bizde kararanl\u0131k ve belal\u0131 bir y\u0131l olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1662009416\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Belki d\u00fcnya i\u00e7in de\u011fil ama bizim i\u00e7in ilgin\u00e7 bir durum var ortada.. 2012 i\u00e7in g\u00f6rece karamsar tahminler yap\u0131l\u0131yor ama\u00a0 a\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler\u00a0 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n beklenenden de ayd\u0131nl\u0131k bir y\u0131l oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. \u015eaka gibi!<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Ge\u00e7en hafta 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131 ve son cari denge verileri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Ekonomide yava\u015flama beklenirken, tam tersine, Temmuz-Eyl\u00fcl d\u00f6neminde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Dahas\u0131, \u00e7eyrekler aras\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 hesaplar\u0131\u00a0 h\u0131zlanan b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ivmesinin de y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bunlar beklentilerin tersine bulgular.<\/p>\n<p>Ekonomi yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in cari denge a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n da h\u0131z kesece\u011fi tahmin ediliyordu. Ekonomi yava\u015flamad\u0131 ama ayl\u0131k bazda cari a\u00e7\u0131k beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. \u0130hracat beklenen temposunda artarken ithalat\u0131n yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n finansman\u0131nda olumsuz bir e\u011filim belirmi\u015f olsa da, kayna\u011f\u0131 me\u00e7hul d\u00f6viz giri\u015fleri (net hata noksan) bunun \u00f6nemli bir soruna d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesini engellemi\u015f.<\/p>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7ta, 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n son ay\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler ekonomide pek de karanl\u0131k olmayan bir tablonun\u00a0 s\u00f6z konusu oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. Veriler gelece\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fck koyu karamsarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 hen\u00fcz desteklemiyor anlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Bu hafta ortas\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanan yeni veriler var. Bunlar da \u00f6yle koyu bir karanl\u0131k beklentisini do\u011frulayacak nitelikte de\u011fil.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1020840708\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>A\u00e7\u0131klanan i\u015fsizlik say\u0131lar\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda (A\u011fustos-Eyl\u00fcl- Ekim ortalamas\u0131) i\u015fsizli\u011fin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek y\u00fczde 8.8 d\u00fczeyine indi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Mevsimlik dalgalanmalardan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f veriler de i\u015fsizlikteki d\u00fc\u015fme e\u011filimini do\u011fruluyor. Bu y\u00f6ntemle A\u011fustos 2011 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 9.5 olarak hesaplanan i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 9.2 d\u00fczeyine geriledi\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Genel hesaplamada Eyl\u00fcl 2010&#8217;da y\u00fczde 11.3 olarak hesaplanan i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l\u0131n a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 9.2 d\u00fczeyine geriledi\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclecek olursa Eyl\u00fcl 2011 tarihinde eri\u015filen y\u00fczde 8.8 d\u00fczeyindeki i\u015fsizlik\u00a0 hi\u00e7 de fena say\u0131lmaz do\u011frusu. Tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n y\u00fczde 11.3&#8217;e (mevsimlik d\u00fczeltme ile y\u00fczde 11.7&#8217;ye) gerilemi\u015f olmas\u0131 da bu yarg\u0131y\u0131 peki\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n<p>K\u00fcresel kriz s\u00fcrecinde h\u0131zla y\u00fckselen i\u015fsizli\u011fin krizden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fla birlikte d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimine girdi\u011fi biliniyordu. Ancak son tahminler\u00a0 ekonominin yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, i\u015fsizlikteki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn de duraklayaca\u011f\u0131 hatta y\u00fckselebilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. Beklentilerin aksine b\u00fcy\u00fcmede \u00f6nemli bir yava\u015flama olmay\u0131nca, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015fme e\u011filiminin devam etti\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-127900762\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>A\u00e7\u0131klanan yeni verilerden birisi de 2011 Kas\u0131m ay\u0131n\u0131n merkezi y\u00f6netim b\u00fct\u00e7e ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeleri. 2010 Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda 365 milyon lira a\u00e7\u0131k veren merkezi y\u00f6netim b\u00fct\u00e7esi bu y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131nda 2.1 milyar lira fazla vermi\u015f. D\u00fcnyaya k\u00f6k s\u00f6kt\u00fcren mali disiplin sorununun bizde olumlu gidi\u015fin s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor bu bulgular.<\/p>\n<p>Say\u0131lar\u0131n ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131nda bu parlakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 buland\u0131ran baz\u0131 noktalar oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemeliyim. \u00d6rne\u011fin, Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda faiz hari\u00e7 harcamalar y\u00fczde 12.6 oran\u0131nda artarken faiz harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde\u00a0 29.6 oran\u0131nda gerilemesi sonu\u00e7ta Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7e harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0 sadece y\u00fczde 4.5 oran\u0131nda artmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flam\u0131\u015f gibi\u00a0 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Yani b\u00fct\u00e7edeki fazlan\u0131n faiz harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n gerilemesi sonucunda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Ocak-Kas\u0131m d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in de benzer e\u011filimlerin s\u00f6z konusu oldu\u011fu anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n bu d\u00f6neminde 23.5\u00a0 milyar TL\u00a0 a\u00e7\u0131k veren b\u00fct\u00e7e bu y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neminde 439 milyon TL fazla vermi\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Y\u0131l\u0131n son ay\u0131nda merkezi y\u00f6netim b\u00fct\u00e7e ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeleri bu alanda durumun olumlu oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. \u015eikayet edecek halimiz yok tabii.<\/p>\n<p>Ba\u015fta s\u00f6yledi\u011fim gibi Aral\u0131k ay\u0131n\u0131n verileri 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n iyi bir mirasla 2012&#8217;ye<\/p>\n<p>devinece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. 2012 beklentileri ise g\u00fcn ge\u00e7tik\u00e7e karar\u0131yor. Bakal\u0131m ne olacak, nas\u0131l olacak?<\/p>\n<div id=\"beacon_cf7399550e\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/adserver.dunya.com\/www\/delivery\/lg.php?bannerid=275&amp;campaignid=43&amp;zoneid=13&amp;loc=1&amp;referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dunya.com%2Fprof-dr-taner-berksoy_132_0_yazar.html&amp;cb=cf7399550e\" alt=\"\" width=\"0\" height=\"0\" \/><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2012 y\u0131l\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fck de\u011ferlendirmeler \u00e7o\u011funlukla karamsar. Ekonomilerin yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131, kimilerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n, k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli de olsa, negatif olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. Bu t\u00fcr tahminler T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine de&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8980","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8980","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8980"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8980\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8980"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8980"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8980"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}