{"id":8977,"date":"2011-12-16T10:12:53","date_gmt":"2011-12-16T07:12:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=8977"},"modified":"2011-12-16T10:13:02","modified_gmt":"2011-12-16T07:13:02","slug":"the-economist-gozlugunden-2012-dunyasi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/the-economist-gozlugunden-2012-dunyasi\/","title":{"rendered":"The Economist G\u00f6zl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden 2012 D\u00fcnyas\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Economist her y\u0131l oldu\u011fu gibi bu y\u0131l da &#8220;World in 2012&#8221; raporuyla gelecek y\u0131l d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde beklentilerini ortaya koydu. Economic Intelligence Un\u0131c&#8217;te de hem d\u00fcnya ekonomisi b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisini, hem de 2012 b\u00fcy\u00fcme rekortmenlerinin hangi \u00fclkeler olaca\u011f\u0131 tahminini ortaya koydu. Rapor esas olarak 2011 hatalar\u0131n\u0131n ve sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n 2012 i\u00e7inde baz\u0131 olumsuzluklar ve durgunlu\u011fu g\u00fcndemde tuttu\u011funu belirtiyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2942508572\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>The Economist&#8217;in &#8220;kendi g\u00f6zl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden&#8221; her y\u0131l yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda bir y\u0131l sonraki d\u00fcnya geli\u015fmesine bakan raporu &#8220;World in 2012&#8221; yay\u0131nland\u0131. Rapor &#8220;Atlas&#8217;\u0131n s\u0131rt\u0131nda ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fcnyan\u0131n bor\u00e7 y\u00fckl\u00fc&#8221; oldu\u011funu, bunun a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak yanl\u0131\u015f ve karas\u0131zl\u0131k ta\u015f\u0131yan 2011 geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke politikalar\u0131ndan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun sonucunda 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda durgunluk ya\u015fanabilece\u011fini, resesyon beklentisinin y\u00fczde 40&#8217;lar seviyesinde oldu\u011fu bilgisine yer veriyor.<\/p>\n<p>Raporun tespitlerini ele ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131kan tabloyu \u015f\u00f6yle \u00f6zetleyebiliriz:<\/p>\n<p>-Amerika yanl\u0131\u015f parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma politikalar\u0131 uygulad\u0131. \u00d6nlemlerdeki hatalar durgunlu\u011fu gere\u011finden fazla s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Bu da 1937 buhran\u0131n\u0131 derinle\u015ftiren kararlarla k\u0131yaslamalara neden oldu. Bu 2012 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 durgunlu\u011fun s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir y\u0131l olmaya aday k\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>-2012&#8217;de Amerika&#8217;da se\u00e7ime ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak Cumhuriyet\u00e7iler\/demokratlar uzla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fini beklemek yanl\u0131\u015f olmaz.<\/p>\n<p>-2012&#8217;de Amerika&#8217;n\u0131n ithalat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 60&#8217;\u0131 geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerden olacak.<\/p>\n<p>-Son on y\u0131lda geli\u015fmekte olanlar\u0131n d\u0131\u015f al\u0131mlar\u0131 zenginlerin iki kat\u0131 artt\u0131. 2000 y\u0131l\u0131nda geli\u015fmekte olanlar\u0131n ithalat\u0131, geli\u015fmi\u015flerin yar\u0131s\u0131yd\u0131. Son on y\u0131lda geli\u015fmekte olanlar\u0131n yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131 geli\u015fmi\u015flerin iki kat\u0131 artt\u0131. 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 \u00c7in olacak.<\/p>\n<p>-Euro b\u00f6lgesinde 2011&#8217;de liderler yanl\u0131\u015f kararlar\u0131 karas\u0131zl\u0131klar\u0131 ve idare-i maslahat\u00e7\u0131 tutumlar\u0131yla sorunlar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcp resesyon ihtimalini art\u0131rd\u0131lar. Olumsuzlu\u011fun bir ba\u015fka unsuru da b\u00fct\u00e7ede k\u0131sa vadeli kemer s\u0131kma politikalar\u0131yd\u0131. 2012&#8217;de \u0130talya&#8217;n\u0131n resesyona girme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2372887909\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>-Yeni y\u0131lda liderler i\u00e7 sorunlara a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verecekler. BM G\u00fcvenlik konseyi \u00fcyesi 5 \u00fclkeden d\u00f6rd\u00fcnde ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imi olmas\u0131 karar almalar\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131racak.<\/p>\n<p>-Olumlu g\u00f6r\u00fclen bin unsur Merkez Bankalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131na istekli olmalar\u0131. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 faizi s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n hale getirebilecek. \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 parasal gev\u015feme program\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletecek. FED&#8217;de geni\u015flemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, uzun vadeli faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak. Merkez Bankalar\u0131n\u0131n gev\u015fek para politikalar\u0131 uygulamalar\u0131 ekonomideki sert gerilemeyi frenleyecek.<\/p>\n<p>-Geli\u015fmi\u015f ABD ve Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n sorunlar\u0131 geli\u015fmekte olanlar\u0131 da etkileyecek. \u00c7in&#8217;in b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi h\u0131z kesecek. Enflasyonu kontrol alt\u0131na almak i\u00e7in bu yola gitmek zorunda kalacak. Geli\u015fmekte olanlar Bat\u0131l\u0131lardaki yava\u015flama ve geli\u015fmelere hassas olacaklar.<\/p>\n<p>-Economic Intell\u0131gence Unit EIU, sat\u0131n alma paritesine g\u00f6re 2012 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisini 3.3 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. 2011 beklentisi bunun \u00fczerinde y\u00fczde 3.7 idi. Ayr\u0131ca d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin resesyona girme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n da y\u00fczde 40 oldu\u011fu tahminini yapt\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2294643221\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>-EIU d\u00fcnyada 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi \u00c7in&#8217;in \u00f6zerk b\u00f6lgesi Macau olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve y\u00fczde 15 b\u00fcy\u00fcme kaydedece\u011fini bildirdi. \u0130lk onun di\u011fer \u00fclkelerini y\u00fczde 14.5 ile Mo\u011folistan, y\u00fczde 13.6 ile Libya, y\u00fczde 10,9 ile Irak, y\u00fczde 9.9 ile Angola, y\u00fczde 8.5 ile Nijer, y\u00fczde 8.2 ile \u00c7in, y\u00fczde 8 ile Etiopya, y\u00fczde 8 ile Ruanda ve y\u00fczde 7.9 ile Laos izliyor. EIU&#8217;nun\u00a0 T\u00fcrkiye 2012 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini ise tahmini ise y\u00fczde 3.5.<\/p>\n<p>Evet, The Economist&#8217;in d\u00fcnya ekonomileri de\u011ferlendirmesiyle EIU&#8217;n\u0131n d\u00fcnya ve \u00fclkeler\u00a0 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeleriyle ilgili tahminleri b\u00f6yle. Bu da 2012 i\u00e7in nas\u0131l bir d\u00fcnyan\u0131n bizi bekledi\u011fini ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Economist her y\u0131l oldu\u011fu gibi bu y\u0131l da &#8220;World in 2012&#8221; raporuyla gelecek y\u0131l d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde beklentilerini ortaya koydu. Economic Intelligence Un\u0131c&#8217;te de hem&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":903,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8977","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8977","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/22"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8977"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8977\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/903"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8977"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8977"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8977"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}