{"id":8974,"date":"2011-12-16T10:11:31","date_gmt":"2011-12-16T07:11:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=8974"},"modified":"2011-12-16T10:11:40","modified_gmt":"2011-12-16T07:11:40","slug":"maynardin-uyarisini-unutmayin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/maynardin-uyarisini-unutmayin\/","title":{"rendered":"Maynard&#8217;\u0131n Uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 Unutmay\u0131n"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin beni en \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtan yan\u0131 dengesizliklerle dolu her d\u00f6nemden servet biriktirerek \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3362232490\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 2011\u2019in ilk dokuz ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 9,6 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde \u00c7in y\u00fczde 9,4, Hindistan ise y\u00fczde 7,4 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. \u0130lk on \u00fclkenin sekizi \u00c7in, Hindistan ve onlar\u0131n tedarik\u00e7ileri. Kalan ikisi ise nevi \u015fahs\u0131na m\u00fcnhas\u0131r \u00fclkeler: T\u00fcrkiye ve \u0130srail. \u015eimdi laf\u0131 uzatmadan ilk soruya ge\u00e7eyim: T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2011\u2019in ilk dokuz ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 9,6 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi iyi midir? El cevap: Her t\u00fcr b\u00fcy\u00fcme elbette iyidir. Sel gider, kum kal\u0131r. Her b\u00fcy\u00fcme ekonomide servet ve kaynak birikimine katk\u0131da bulunur. \u0130kinci soru \u015fudur: 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, 2012 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n da b\u00fcy\u00fcme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan iyi ge\u00e7ece\u011fine mi i\u015faret etmektedir? El cevap: Hay\u0131r. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc soru: Peki, 2011\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile artan servet ve kaynak birikimini bug\u00fcn ne yapmak gerekir? El cevap: 2012 k\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 bir kenara ay\u0131rmak gerekir. Yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmay\u0131p, m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funca likit kalmakta fayda vard\u0131r. K\u00f6t\u00fcden iyiyi \u00e7\u0131karma g\u00f6revi yine herkesin kendisine aittir. Kamu idaresinden hatadan ba\u015fka bir \u015fey beklememekte fayda vard\u0131r. Bu 2012 i\u00e7in ilk kurald\u0131r.<br \/>\nY\u0131llar \u00f6nce 2001 krizinde, toplant\u0131 \u00fczerine toplant\u0131 dolu o g\u00fcnlerde, rahmetli hocam Prof. Dr. Merih Celasun\u2019dan \u015funu \u00f6\u011frendim. Merih Bey, bana, \u201cSak\u0131n ola ki \u2018Bu kriz \u00e7ok derin, \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 zor\u2019 diye ortalarda dola\u015fma\u201d demi\u015fti. \u201cT\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin beni her zaman \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtan yan\u0131, dengesizliklerle dolu her d\u00f6nemden servet biriktirerek \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131d\u0131r. D\u00fcn ekonomide bir dizi dengesizlik vard\u0131. Ama toplumun her kesimi o g\u00fcnden bug\u00fcne ev, araba, yazl\u0131k, banka hesab\u0131 cinsinden bir servet biriktirerek geldi. \u015eimdi o servetin bu krizden nas\u0131l etkilendi\u011fini dikkate alarak meseleye bak\u201d diye uzun uzun anlatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. O d\u00f6neme rengini veren \u2018servet etkisi\u2019 tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda hep akl\u0131mdayd\u0131. Bug\u00fcn de akl\u0131mdad\u0131r. Vaziyete \u015f\u00f6yle bak\u0131n: T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi, 2012 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n getirece\u011fi zorluklar\u0131, 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi nedeniyle daha haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layabilme imk\u00e2n\u0131na sahiptir. E\u011fer mal ve m\u00fclk sahipleri s\u00fck\u00fbnetlerini muhafaza edebilirlerse elbette. \u015eimdi \u00e7o\u011faltma de\u011fil, koruma zaman\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nday\u0131z. Rakamlara bakarken baz\u0131 say\u0131n bakanlar\u0131n ne dedi\u011fini sak\u0131n ola ki dinlemeyin. Bu da 2012 i\u00e7in ikinci kurald\u0131r.<br \/>\n\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc kural ise \u015fudur: 2012 y\u0131l\u0131na bakarken Maynard\u2019\u0131n (John Maynard Keynes) uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 akl\u0131n\u0131zdan \u00e7\u0131karmay\u0131n. \u00dcstat, Paris Bar\u0131\u015f Konferans\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda kaleme ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 notlar\u0131n\u0131 1919 tarihli \u2018Bar\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u0130ktisadi Sonu\u00e7lar\u0131\u2019 adl\u0131 eserinde toplam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Notlar yaln\u0131zca birinci sava\u015ftan ikincisinin \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rmez. Giri\u015f paragraf\u0131 insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n durumu ile ilgili unutulmaz bir uyar\u0131d\u0131r:<br \/>\n\u201c\u00c7evreye uyum sa\u011flayabilme g\u00fcc\u00fc insano\u011flunun belirgin bir \u00f6zelli\u011fidir. Bat\u0131 Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n son \u00e7eyrek y\u00fczy\u0131lda i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu iktisadi yap\u0131n\u0131n ola\u011fan d\u0131\u015f\u0131, istikrars\u0131z, karma\u015f\u0131k, g\u00fcvenilmez ve ge\u00e7ici nitelikte oldu\u011funun pek az\u0131m\u0131z fark\u0131nda. Son d\u00f6nemdeki olumlu geli\u015fmelerin normal, kal\u0131c\u0131 ve g\u00fcvenilir oldu\u011funu zannederek planlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 buna g\u00f6re yap\u0131yoruz.\u201d<br \/>\n\u0130\u015fte bug\u00fcnk\u00fc zorlu\u011fumuz da buradad\u0131r. Bug\u00fcn olan\u0131 koruma konusundaki temel zorluk, t\u00fcr\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn bu \u2018\u00e7evreye uyum sa\u011flayabilme\u2019 \u00f6zelli\u011fidir. Bu \u00f6zellik, ortam\u0131n dengesizliklerini sorgulamay\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7le\u015ftirir. Anormalin normal g\u00f6r\u00fclmesini sa\u011flar. Halbuki y\u00fczde 9,6 politika hatas\u0131d\u0131r ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez. Bu da 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc kurald\u0131r.<br \/>\nSoru d\u00f6rt: Y\u00fczde 9,6\u2019l\u0131k 2011 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bize ne demektedir? El cevap: Reel faiz oran\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 eksi 2\u2019lerde dola\u015fan bir ekonomi, b\u00fcy\u00fcme rekoru k\u0131rar. Demek ki neymi\u015f: Faizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek, parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma olmaz. Soru be\u015f: T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 2012 y\u0131l\u0131na daha haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 girebilir miydi? El cevap: Evet. Ama bu saatten sonra, son pi\u015fmanl\u0131k fayda etmez. Bundan b\u00f6yle, unutmay\u0131n: Her koyun kendi baca\u011f\u0131ndan as\u0131l\u0131r. Siz, Maynard\u2019\u0131n uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131, bir kenara yaz\u0131n ve akl\u0131n\u0131zda tutun. Hata yapmay\u0131n.<br \/>\nGitti\u011fi davette, g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc alakan\u0131n kendisine de\u011fil de giydi\u011fi k\u00fcrke oldu\u011funu bilen Nasrettin Hoca\u2019n\u0131n, ana masada oturup en g\u00fczel yemeklere ve iltifatlara bo\u011fulurken ger\u00e7eklikle alakas\u0131n\u0131 kesmemek i\u00e7in bir yandan \u00e7orbas\u0131n\u0131 ka\u015f\u0131klay\u0131p, bir yandan da \u201cYe k\u00fcrk\u00fcm ye\u201d demesi gibi hep tekrarlay\u0131n: S\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olmayan s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin beni en \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtan yan\u0131 dengesizliklerle dolu her d\u00f6nemden servet biriktirerek \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131d\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 2011\u2019in ilk dokuz ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 9,6 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde \u00c7in y\u00fczde&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":908,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8974","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8974","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8974"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8974\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/908"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8974"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8974"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8974"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}