{"id":8927,"date":"2011-12-15T10:21:30","date_gmt":"2011-12-15T07:21:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=8927"},"modified":"2011-12-15T10:21:39","modified_gmt":"2011-12-15T07:21:39","slug":"buyumenin-kaynaklari","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/buyumenin-kaynaklari\/","title":{"rendered":"B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin Kaynaklar\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek milli gelir verilerini de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. B\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 y\u00fcksek (y\u00fczde 8,2) \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. 1998 bazl\u0131 seride \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme rekoru 2000\u2019de k\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f (y\u00fczde 8,6). \u0130kincilik bu y\u0131l\u0131n. Do\u011frusu k\u00f6t\u00fc \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131\u015f\u0131mlar yap\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3203619864\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Milli gelir \u00fcretimi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcyor. Ancak farkl\u0131 talep bile\u015fimleri ayn\u0131 \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile e\u011filimleri do\u011fru te\u015fhis edebilmek i\u00e7in talep kalemlerine inmek gerekiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Herkesi me\u015fgul eden soru biliniyor. Milli gelirin y\u00fczde 10\u2019una t\u0131rmanan d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f talep aras\u0131nda \u00e7ok ciddi bir dengesizlik anlam\u0131na geliyor. Dengesizlik art\u0131yor mu? Yoksa d\u00fczelme i\u015faretleri var m\u0131?<\/p>\n<p>Bu t\u00fcr analizlerde \u00f6nemli bir husus g\u00f6zden ka\u00e7abiliyor. \u0130ktisat politikas\u0131n\u0131n amac\u0131 \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015flatmak de\u011fildir. Talebin bile\u015fimini de\u011fi\u015ftirmektir. Yani i\u00e7 talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015flat\u0131rken d\u0131\u015f talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rmakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00d6zel harcamalar ve d\u0131\u015f talep<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Talep kalemlerinin etkisini \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131\u201d y\u00f6ntemi kullan\u0131l\u0131yor. Sadece o kalemin milli gelirde yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimi sapt\u0131yor. Her b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisinden sonra bu hesab\u0131 yap\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Mevcut konjonkt\u00fcrde i\u00e7 talebi \u00f6zel kesim harcamalar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yor. \u00d6zel harcamalar ikiye ayr\u0131l\u0131yor: T\u00fcketim ve yat\u0131r\u0131m. Bunlar\u0131n kendi i\u00e7inde b\u00f6l\u00fcnmesi bu a\u015famada ilgimizi \u00e7ekmiyor. \u00c7eyrek baz\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 buluyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>D\u0131\u015f talep mal-hizmet ihracat ve ithalat toplam\u0131ndan olu\u015fuyor. \u0130hracat ithalattan daha yava\u015f artarsa b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye eksi katk\u0131 yap\u0131yor. Yani talep i\u00e7 \u00fcretim yerine ithalata gidiyor. Aksi halde art\u0131 katk\u0131 yap\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-491673813\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bizi asl\u0131nda son bir y\u0131l ilgilendiriyor. Ama biraz daha geriye gidiyoruz. Resesyondan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n kesinle\u015fti\u011fi 2010 ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finden ba\u015fl\u0131yoruz. Grafikte \u00e7ubuklar d\u0131\u015f talebi, \u00e7izgiler \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim ve \u00f6zel yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 ifade ediyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Talebin bile\u015fimi de\u011fi\u015fiyor<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>2010\u2019un ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye 2.3 puan, \u00f6zel yat\u0131r\u0131m 5.2 puan katk\u0131 yap\u0131yor. \u00d6zel harcamalar toplam\u0131 y\u00fczde 7.5 ediyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k d\u0131\u015f talep b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden 1.9 puan g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u00dc\u00e7 kalemin toplam\u0131 y\u00fczde 5.6\u2019ya geriliyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6zel t\u00fcketimin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131 2011\u2019in ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde 8.8 puanla zirveye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6zel yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n katk\u0131s\u0131 zirveyi 2010\u2019un son \u00e7eyre\u011finde 8 puanla g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. D\u0131\u015f talep ise ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyrekte b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden 5.6 puan g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2271176755\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Zirveden sonra \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim ve yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n katk\u0131lar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7iyor. Son \u00e7eyrekte t\u00fcketim 4.7 puana, yat\u0131r\u0131m 3.1 puana iniyor. Toplam\u0131 y\u00fczde 7.8 ediyor. D\u0131\u015f talebin seyri daha \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131d\u0131r. \u00d6nceki be\u015f \u00e7eyrek eksi gittikten sonra son \u00e7eyrekte art\u0131ya ge\u00e7iyor (0.6 puan). B\u00f6ylece \u00fcretimin \u00f6zel talepten daha h\u0131zl\u0131 artmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor (y\u00fczde 8,4).<\/p>\n<p>Say\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 \u00f6zel kesim talebi ve d\u0131\u015f talep aras\u0131ndaki dengesizli\u011fin azalmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen tutturulmu\u015ftur. Umut verici bir geli\u015fmedir. Ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin elini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek milli gelir verilerini de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. B\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 y\u00fcksek (y\u00fczde 8,2) \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. 1998 bazl\u0131 seride \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme rekoru 2000\u2019de k\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f (y\u00fczde 8,6). \u0130kincilik bu&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8927","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8927","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8927"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8927\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8927"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8927"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8927"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}