{"id":8876,"date":"2011-12-14T10:17:14","date_gmt":"2011-12-14T07:17:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=8876"},"modified":"2011-12-14T10:17:23","modified_gmt":"2011-12-14T07:17:23","slug":"son-aciklanan-verilerin-dusundurdukleri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/son-aciklanan-verilerin-dusundurdukleri\/","title":{"rendered":"Son A\u00e7\u0131klanan Verilerin D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcrd\u00fckleri"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanan ekim ayi cari a\u00e7\u0131k rakam\u0131 ile \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisi gerek mevsimlik dalgalanmalar\u0131n gerekse de\u011fi\u015fken k\u00fcresel ko\u015fullar\u0131n etkisi ile nispeten \u00e7eli\u015fkili bir g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc sergiliyor, orta vade a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan fazla bir \u015fey s\u00f6ylemiyor. Y\u00fczde 8.2&#8217;lik \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek Gayri Safi Yurti\u00e7i Meselesi&#8217;ndeki reel art\u0131\u015f, al\u0131nan \u00f6nlemlere ra\u011fmen umulan so\u011fuman\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftmedi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. 4.15 milyar dolar seviyesine gerileyen cari a\u00e7\u0131k rakam\u0131 ise ilk bak\u0131\u015fta, d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6neminde durumun de\u011fi\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor, fakat detaylar net bir kanaat olu\u015fumunu engelliyor. Ekim ay\u0131nda ihracat 12.7 milyar dolara ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f, ithalat ise mart ay\u0131ndan bu yana ilk kez 20 milyar seviyesinin alt\u0131na inerek 19.3 milyar dolar olmu\u015f; d\u0131\u015f ticaret hacmi pek de\u011fi\u015fmez iken, ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 6.5 milyar dolar seviyesine gerilemi\u015f. Veriler 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n sene ba\u015f\u0131ndaki hedefin olduk\u00e7a \u00fcst\u00fcnde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi kanaatini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Fakat 2012 d\u00f6nemine ili\u015fkin y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyli belirsizlik g\u00fcncelli\u011fini koruyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-80847804\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ge\u00e7mi\u015fi bir kenara b\u0131rak\u0131p gelece\u011fe bakarak soral\u0131m: E\u011fer 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi s\u0131f\u0131r d\u00fczeyinde olur ise ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek cari a\u00e7\u0131k d\u00fczeyi ne olur? Veya farkl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde soral\u0131m 2011 y\u0131l\u0131ndakine e\u015fde\u011fer bir gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131las\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi durumunda cari a\u00e7\u0131k rakam\u0131 yine 75-80 milyar dolar aras\u0131nda olur mu? B\u00f6yle bir a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n finansman\u0131 sorun yarat\u0131rm\u0131, finansal piyasalarda ne t\u00fcr e\u011filim ve bask\u0131lar g\u00fcndeme gelir? \u0130hracat pazarlar\u0131m\u0131zdaki daralmay\u0131 ve emtia fiyatlar\u0131ndaki dalgalanmalar\u0131 dikkate al\u0131r isek d\u0131\u015f ticaret hacminin bir miktar daralabilece\u011fi fakat cari a\u00e7\u0131k rakam\u0131nda ciddi bir daralman\u0131n s\u00f6z konusu olamayaca\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir. D\u0131\u015f finansman imkanlar\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131ldan daha iyi olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck; e\u011fer bu nedenle cari a\u00e7\u0131k k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmek zorunda kal\u0131r ise bu ekonominin daralaca\u011f\u0131, i\u015fsizlik ve enflasyonun hedeflenenden daha y\u00fcksek olaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelebilir. 2012 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fck\u00e7e son a\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler g\u00f6rece \u00f6nemsiz kal\u0131yor&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Bu belirsizlik ortam\u0131nda mali sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc y\u00fczde 15-20 d\u00fczeyindeki kredi geni\u015flemesi ise soru i\u015faretlerini iyice artt\u0131r\u0131yor. Kurumsal verimlili\u011fin nispeten d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olaca\u011f\u0131, gerek k\u00fcresel gerekse i\u00e7 talebin daralmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi, d\u0131\u015f finansman ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6rece olumsuz olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ve ciddi boyutta cari a\u00e7\u0131k veya b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 veren ekonomilere y\u00f6nelik bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n olumsuzla\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n tahmin edildi\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemde bu nas\u0131l olacak?.. Kredi geni\u015flemesi konusundaki \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc ilk anda kula\u011fa ho\u015f geliyor, ancak cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u00fclkemizin riskine ili\u015fkin alg\u0131lamalar\u0131 olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkileyebilece\u011fini dikkate almak gerekiyor. Zira s\u00f6z konusu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc d\u00f6viz kuru, enflasyon ve faizlerdeki olumsuz e\u011filimleri g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir, evdeki hesaplar \u00e7ar\u015f\u0131ya uymayabilir. Baz\u0131 kesimler farkl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir ve bu y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 25&#8217;lik \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n kalkt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlatarak s\u00f6z konusu oran\u0131n makul oldu\u011funu iddia edebilir. Bu durumda onlara sormak gerekiyor. 2011 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki kredi geni\u015flemesi oran\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir seviyede olsa b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k rakamlar\u0131 daha makul d\u00fczeyde olmazm\u0131yd\u0131? T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131 daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilir, faizler y\u00fckselmez ve enflasyon beklentilerindeki olumsuzluk s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olabilirmiydi?.. Bu seneki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131l\u0131k 2012&#8217;ye ili\u015fkin algalamalar\u0131n bozulmas\u0131na katk\u0131 yapmad\u0131 m\u0131?. Son a\u00e7\u0131klanan verileri de\u011ferlendirir iken kredi geni\u015flemesinin rol\u00fcn\u00fc ihmal etmemek gerekiyor&#8230; Belki ge\u00e7mi\u015fi d\u00fczeltemeyiz, ama \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z dersler sayesinde yumu\u015fak ge\u00e7i\u015fi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131lmak ad\u0131na daha dikkatli ve se\u00e7ici olabiliriz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanan ekim ayi cari a\u00e7\u0131k rakam\u0131 ile \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisi gerek mevsimlik dalgalanmalar\u0131n gerekse de\u011fi\u015fken k\u00fcresel ko\u015fullar\u0131n etkisi ile nispeten \u00e7eli\u015fkili bir&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":931,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8876","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8876","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/21"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8876"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8876\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/931"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8876"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8876"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8876"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}