{"id":8873,"date":"2011-12-14T10:16:10","date_gmt":"2011-12-14T07:16:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=8873"},"modified":"2011-12-14T10:16:19","modified_gmt":"2011-12-14T07:16:19","slug":"surprizli-buyume","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/surprizli-buyume\/","title":{"rendered":"S\u00fcrprizli B\u00fcy\u00fcme"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Y\u0131l\u0131n sonuna geldik say\u0131l\u0131r. Giden y\u0131l\u0131n yeni gelene devretti\u011fi en \u00f6nemli e\u011filim b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131d\u0131r. Y\u0131l sonu b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesinin gelen y\u0131l\u0131n en az\u0131ndan ilk aylar\u0131nda etkili hatta belirleyici olaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcr. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla yeni y\u0131la devredilen b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesinin yava\u015f ya da h\u0131zl\u0131 olmas\u0131 \u00f6nemlidir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-411924702\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n son aylar\u0131na ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131n\u0131n her zamankinden daha fazla ilgi \u00e7ekti\u011fini s\u00f6ylemek yanl\u0131\u015f olmaz. K\u00fcresel ekonomide hacimli ve yayg\u0131n bir yava\u015flama olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. Bu yayg\u0131n yava\u015flama dinami\u011finin bize ne kadar bula\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kestirmek \u00f6nemli bir mesele haline gelmi\u015f durumda. Bu senenin biti\u015fteki b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesi bu nedenle \u00f6zel bir ilgiye mazhar oluyor.<\/p>\n<p>Baz\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar\u0131n gelecek y\u0131la ait tahminlerindeki karamsarl\u0131k dozu durumu daha da kritik hale getiriyor.\u00a0 Bu kurumlar\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2012 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131na il\u0131\u015fkin tahminlerinde iyiden iyiye hasis davranmalar\u0131 da sona eren y\u0131l\u0131n nas\u0131l bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesi ile sonlanaca\u011f\u0131 meselesini d\u00f6n\u00fck ilgiyi daha da b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Y\u0131l sonu b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 hen\u00fcz g\u00f6rmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil tabii. Ama e\u011filimin ne y\u00f6nde oldu\u011funa ili\u015fkin taze bilgiler var. T\u00dc\u0130K hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n\u0131n ve y\u0131l\u0131n dokuz ayl\u0131k d\u00f6neminin b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Hani bazen son s\u00f6z en ba\u015ftan s\u00f6ylenir ya, bende \u00f6yle yapaca\u011f\u0131m ama bir de\u011fil iki s\u00f6z\u00fc ba\u015ftan s\u00f6yleyece\u011fim. 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin tahminleri ve beklentileri fazlas\u0131yla a\u015facak kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu bir. B\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 hala y\u00fcksek olsa da b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin h\u0131z kesti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler var. Oysa durum pek b\u00f6yle g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Bu da iki.<\/p>\n<p>2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n birinci \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 (revize edilmi\u015f haliyle) y\u00fczde 12 olarak hesaplanm\u0131\u015f. B\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 ikinci \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 8.8&#8217;e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Yeni a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ise y\u00fczde 8.2 d\u00fczeyinde. Y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131na g\u00f6re h\u0131zda ciddi bir yava\u015flama var. Ekonomi kriz \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131nda elde etti\u011fi y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesini yitiriyor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00fc\u00e7 ayda da \u00e7ok ufak marjla gerilemi\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flama ivmesinin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc izlenimini veriyor. Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yap\u0131lan tahminlerde elde edilen veriler b\u00f6yle s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Ama ayr\u0131nt\u0131 durumun pek de b\u00f6yle olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. B\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesini y\u0131ll\u0131k bazdaki de\u011fi\u015fimlerden \u00e7ok \u00e7eyrekler aras\u0131ndaki farkl\u0131la\u015fma olarak \u00f6l\u00e7mek b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesi hakk\u0131nda daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bilgi veriyor. \u00dcstelik bu t\u00fcr hesaplama mevsim ve takvim etkilerini de d\u00fczelterek tahmin yapabilme imkan\u0131 veriyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1165006178\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>2011 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in bu y\u00f6ntemle hesaplanan \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nemlik b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131zlar\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k say\u0131lar\u0131n s\u00f6yledi\u011finden farkl\u0131 bir duruma i\u015faret ediyor. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki \u00fc\u00e7 aya (2010 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131)\u00a0 k\u0131yasla ekonominin y\u00fczde 1.9 h\u0131z\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Sonraki \u00e7eyrekte bu h\u0131z y\u00fczde 1.1 d\u00fczeyine geriliyor. Ekonominin h\u0131z kesti\u011fi, b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesinin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131\u00a0 sonucunu \u00e7\u0131kart\u0131yoruz bundan. Herkesle beraber bizim de yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclere paralel olarak \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte bu h\u0131z\u0131n daha da d\u00fc\u015fmesi bekleniyor. Ama \u00f6yle olmuyor. Mevsim ve takvime g\u00f6re d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nemlik b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde yeniden y\u00fckseliyor ve y\u00fczde 1.7 d\u00fczeyine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\u00a0 Ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesinden pek bir \u015fey kaybetmedi\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelir bu.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme say\u0131lar\u0131 beklentilerin \u00fcst\u00fcndedir. B\u00fcy\u00fcme\u00a0 say\u0131lar\u0131 bu nicelikleriyle cidi s\u00fcrpriz yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ama bana kal\u0131rsa b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131na ili\u015fkin en b\u00fcy\u00fck s\u00fcrpriz \u00e7eyrekler aras\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcmede g\u00f6zlenen yeniden h\u0131zlanma e\u011filimidir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu ba\u011flamda daha da b\u00fcy\u00fck bir s\u00fcrpriz b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131 yapan talep unsurlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte olduk\u00e7a radikal bi\u00e7imde farkl\u0131la\u015fm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Uzun bir s\u00fcredir ekonomide b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi i\u00e7 talebin s\u00fcr\u00fckledi\u011fi bilinmektedir. Net ihracat kaleminin s\u00fcrekli negatif alanda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131, d\u0131\u015f talebin b\u00fcy\u00fcme dostu olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir bu. Y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde bu durumun tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, net ihracat\u0131n uzun zamand\u0131r ilk kez b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye pozitif katk\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-658549525\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Cari a\u00e7\u0131k feryatlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6ky\u00fcz\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu d\u00f6nemde net ihracattan gelen bu pozitif katk\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u00fcrprizidir. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin s\u00fcrprizlerle dolu\u00a0 bi\u00e7imde yol ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Y\u0131l\u0131n sonuna geldik say\u0131l\u0131r. Giden y\u0131l\u0131n yeni gelene devretti\u011fi en \u00f6nemli e\u011filim b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131d\u0131r. Y\u0131l sonu b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesinin gelen y\u0131l\u0131n en az\u0131ndan ilk aylar\u0131nda etkili&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8873","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8873","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8873"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8873\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8873"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8873"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8873"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}