{"id":8870,"date":"2011-12-14T10:15:12","date_gmt":"2011-12-14T07:15:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=8870"},"modified":"2011-12-14T10:15:21","modified_gmt":"2011-12-14T07:15:21","slug":"dis-finansman-ve-2012-buyumesi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/dis-finansman-ve-2012-buyumesi\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u0131\u015f Finansman ve 2012 B\u00fcy\u00fcmesi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Son g\u00fcnler<\/span>\u00a0\u00e7ok hareketliydi. \u00d6nce Avrupa Bankac\u0131l\u0131k Kurumu (EBA), arkas\u0131ndan ise Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) baz\u0131 kararlar ald\u0131lar. Per\u015fembe ak\u015fam\u0131 ba\u015flayan ve sonucu merakla beklenen Avrupal\u0131 liderler toplant\u0131s\u0131 cuma sabah\u0131n\u0131n erken saatlerinde bitti. Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ise hem \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fe ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme verilerini hem de ekim ay\u0131 \u00f6demeler dengesi verilerini \u00f6\u011frendik. T\u00fcm bu bilgi ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 &#8220;2012&#8217;de T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 ne olabilir?&#8221; sorusu \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde ele alaca\u011f\u0131m.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2857900508\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">B\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerin \u00fczerinde<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z y\u00fczde 8.2 oldu. \u0130lk \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in daha \u00f6nce yukar\u0131ya do\u011fru g\u00fcncellenen b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisi bir kez daha ve ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde g\u00fcncellendi ve y\u00fczde 12 olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. \u0130kinci \u00e7eyrekteki b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 8.6 oldu\u011fu hat\u0131rlan\u0131rsa, y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131nda ilk \u00e7eyrekten bu yana bir miktar azalma oldu\u011fu belirtilebilir. Ancak, bu azalma beklenenin \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00f6ylelikle, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk dokuz ay\u0131nda 2010&#8217;un ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 9.6 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fck. Geldi\u011fimiz noktada, k\u00fcresel krizden \u00f6nceki zirve gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131la (GSYH) de\u011ferinin belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerindeyiz: Y\u00fczde 10.5. Grafik 1, mevsim ve takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ve k\u00fcresel krizden \u00f6nce ula\u015f\u0131lan en y\u00fcksek de\u011feri 100&#8217;e e\u015fit olacak \u015fekilde endeks haline getirilmi\u015f GSYH&#8217;nin hareketlerini veriyor. Krizden \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde etkilendi\u011fimizi ancak sonra h\u0131zla toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz bu grafikten.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6te yandan, b\u00fcy\u00fcme verileri, bir ara yap\u0131lan &#8216;\u0131s\u0131nma&#8217; tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na son noktay\u0131 koymu\u015f oldu. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n son aylar\u0131ndan beri s\u00fcrekli y\u00fckselen temel enflasyon, bug\u00fcne kadar ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen y\u00fcksek cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve azalsa da hala \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek olan kredi art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131, nedense &#8216;\u0131s\u0131nma&#8217; i\u00e7in yeterli kan\u0131t olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. Y\u00fczde 9.6&#8217;l\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme san\u0131r\u0131m art\u0131k en \u015f\u00fcphecileri bile ikna edecektir.<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Finansman uyar\u0131 sinyali veriyor<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Y\u00fcksek bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 e\u011fer s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir ise g\u00fczel bir \u015fey \u015f\u00fcphesiz. B\u00f6ylelikle i\u015fsizlik sorunu ile daha rahat ba\u015f etmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oluyor. Ek olarak zengin \u00fclkelerin refah d\u00fczeyine daha h\u0131zla yakla\u015fmak umudu do\u011fuyor. T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin son 60 y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 y\u00fczde 4.8. 2011&#8217;de y\u00fczde 8 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fimizi varsayarsak, 2003-2011 d\u00f6nemindeki ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z y\u00fczde 4.5 oluyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, \u015fu andaki ekonomik yap\u0131m\u0131z ortalamada y\u00fczde 4.5-5 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmemize izin veriyor. Bunun \u00fczerindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131, bir de birka\u00e7 y\u0131l arka arkaya ger\u00e7ekle\u015firlerse \u00f6nemli sorunlar do\u011furuyorlar.<\/p>\n<p>Bu sorunlar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 geliyor. H\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz d\u00f6nemler cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n da h\u0131zla artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemler. T\u0131pk\u0131 2010 ve 2011&#8217;de, \u00f6zellikle de 2011&#8217;de oldu\u011fu gibi. Y\u00fcksek cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 (d\u00f6viz gelirlerimizin \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde d\u00f6viz harcamalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n olmas\u0131) ancak yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan d\u00f6viz bor\u00e7lanmakla m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Bor\u00e7lanman\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k ki iki taraf\u0131 var: Bor\u00e7 alan ve bor\u00e7 veren. Bor\u00e7 veren say\u0131s\u0131 azal\u0131p, alabilece\u011finiz bor\u00e7 miktar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyorsa, cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Bu, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenizi de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek zorunda kalman\u0131z anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2752510504\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>K\u00fcresel krize tepki olarak geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin merkez bankalar\u0131, \u00f6zellikle de Amerikan Merkez Bankas\u0131 (FED) bol miktarda para bast\u0131lar. Bu \u00fclkelerde politika faizleri de \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeylere indi. Bu nedenle bizim gibi \u00fclkelere bol miktarda sermaye akt\u0131. Ne var ki al\u0131nan bu bor\u00e7lar daha \u00e7ok k\u0131sa vadeliydi. K\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7, bor\u00e7 verence yenilenmezse, alan \u00fclke \u00fczerinde \u00f6nemli bir finansman bask\u0131s\u0131 olu\u015fturur. \u00d6deyebilmek i\u00e7in, bor\u00e7lular d\u00f6viz bulmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rlar (kur y\u00fckselir) ve bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclt\u00fcrler (b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00fc\u015fer).<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz k\u00fcresel ko\u015fullar, T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan bor\u00e7 bulmas\u0131n\u0131 giderek zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Bunun bir kan\u0131t\u0131 d\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u00f6demeler dengesi verilerinde var: T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;ye ayl\u0131k ortalama net sermaye giri\u015fi y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde 7.6, ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde 8, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde ise 3.2 milyar dolar oldu. Son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n ortalamas\u0131 ise 1.9 milyar dolara indi. Grafik 2&#8217;de 2008&#8217;in ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana \u00fc\u00e7er ayl\u0131k ortalama net sermaye giri\u015fleri var. Son aylarda net sermaye giri\u015flerindeki \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 azalmaya dikkat. Bu azalmay\u0131 2008&#8217;in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 ve 2009&#8217;daki hareketler ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmakta yarar var.<\/p>\n<p>Daha \u00f6nemli soru \u015fu: 2012&#8217;de finansman ko\u015fullar\u0131 nas\u0131l olacak? Bu soruya verilecek yan\u0131t, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde 2012 b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n ne d\u00fczeyde olaca\u011f\u0131na da \u0131\u015f\u0131k tutacak. Bu soruyu yan\u0131tlamak i\u00e7in Avrupa&#8217;daki geli\u015fmelere d\u00f6nmek gerekiyor. \u00d6nce Avrupa&#8217;daki sorunlar.<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Avupa&#8217;daki sorunlar<\/span><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4294676136\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Orta vadede \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm bekleyen temel sorun, tek bir para politikas\u0131 varken \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 maliye politikalar\u0131 olmas\u0131. Bu olgu, baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerde gev\u015fek maliye politikas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. \u00d6zellikle Yunanistan, \u0130talya ve Portekiz i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erliydi bu olgu. Bu soruna ek olarak, k\u00fcresel krizin bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerde batman\u0131n e\u015fi\u011fine getirmesi ve bu bankalara b\u00fct\u00e7eden yap\u0131lan katk\u0131lar b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ve kamu bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ratt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>K\u0131sa vadede en b\u00fcy\u00fck sorun, bu a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n finansman\u0131. Ne var ki \u0130talya ve \u0130spanya devletlerinin finansman gereksinimi \u00e7ok fazla. Mevcut ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda bunun kar\u015f\u0131lanamayaca\u011f\u0131 ve bor\u00e7lar\u0131n yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lmak zorunda kal\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden, \u00fclkeler ancak y\u00fcksek faizle bor\u00e7lanabiliyorlar. Finansman gereksinimi daha da y\u00fckseliyor. Faiz daha da art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu k\u0131s\u0131r sarmal\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in olmazsa olmaz ko\u015ful mali disiplinin keskin bi\u00e7imde art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131. Ama bunun b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131zlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesinden ve \u00fclkelerin kamu bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n milli gelirlerine oranlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131ndan korkuluyor. Bu ise risk priminin, yani faizin daha da artmas\u0131 ve daha y\u00fcksek finansman ihtiyac\u0131 demek. Bu durumda, g\u00fcveni sa\u011flayarak bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrecek k\u00f6pr\u00fc kredisine ihtiya\u00e7 var. Sorun \u015fu ki \u0130talya ve \u0130spanya&#8217;n\u0131n ek kaynak gereksinimi \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek. Bu kayna\u011f\u0131n t\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc sa\u011flayacak mevcut bir mekanizma yoktu.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc sorun ise Avrupa&#8217;daki bankalar\u0131n sermaye a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131. EBA, per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc bankalar\u0131n sermaye a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 9 milyar euro y\u00fckselterek 115 milyar euroya \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Bankalara Haziran 2012 sonuna kadar s\u00fcre verildi. Bu bankalar, sermayelerinin (risk a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131) varl\u0131klar\u0131na oran\u0131n\u0131 asgari y\u00fczde 9&#8217;a getirmek zorundalar. Bunu, yeni sermaye bularak da yapabilirler varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclterek de. Avrupa&#8217;daki bankalar bu y\u0131l\u0131n may\u0131s ay\u0131ndan bu yana normal kanallardan fon bulmakta zorlan\u0131yorlar. Bu durumda, bankalar\u0131n taze sermaye koymak yerine, asgari sermaye\/varl\u0131k oran\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak \u00fczere kredi stoklar\u0131n\u0131 keskin bi\u00e7imde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmelerinden korkuluyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Finansman ko\u015fullar\u0131 nas\u0131l olacak?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc, ECB bankalar\u0131 bir nebze rahatlat\u0131c\u0131 \u00f6nlemler a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. \u00dc\u00e7 y\u0131la kadar uzanan vadede bankalara likidite deste\u011fi verecek. Deste\u011fi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda isteyece\u011fi teminatlar\u0131n \u00e7e\u015fidini art\u0131rd\u0131 ve kalitesini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Politika faizini 0.25 puan indirdi. Piyasalar\u0131n as\u0131l merakla bekledi\u011fi ECB&#8217;nin sorunlu \u00fclkelerin tahvillerinden sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 miktar\u0131 keskin bi\u00e7imde art\u0131r\u0131p art\u0131rmayaca\u011f\u0131yd\u0131. ECB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 &#8220;Maliye politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin sorunlar maliye politikas\u0131 ile \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fcr. Bu sorunlar\u0131n para bas\u0131larak \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi yarar getirmez, ayr\u0131ca ECB&#8217;nin yasas\u0131 buna engel&#8221; mealinde bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yaparak piyasalar\u0131 &#8216;\u00fczd\u00fc&#8217;.<\/p>\n<p>Liderler zirvesinde temel sorunu \u00e7\u00f6zmek i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir ad\u0131m at\u0131ld\u0131. Yasalara denk b\u00fct\u00e7e ko\u015fulu konulacak. B\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 belli miktar\u0131 ge\u00e7ecek \u00fclkeler cezaland\u0131r\u0131lacak. Bu olumlu bir ad\u0131m. Ancak iki problem var: Bir, \u0130ngiltere, \u0130sve\u00e7 gibi \u00fclkeler kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131lar; AB b\u00f6l\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u0130ki, kararlar\u0131n parlamentolarca onaylanmas\u0131 gerekiyor; zaman alacak.<\/p>\n<p>Avrupa Finansal \u0130stikrar Fonu&#8217;nun (EFSF) yerine 2013&#8217;te Avrupa \u0130stikrar Fonu (ESM) devreye girecekti. ESM&#8217;nin toplam 500 milyar euro sermayesi olacak; EFSF&#8217;ye g\u00f6re 60 milyar euro daha fazla. Ayr\u0131ca, EFSF&#8217;nin taze para \u015feklinde kayna\u011f\u0131 yoktu, ikili garantilerle \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yordu. ESM&#8217;nin ise taze kayna\u011f\u0131 olacak. ESM&#8217;nin devreye girmesi \u00f6ne -2012 ortas\u0131na, al\u0131nd\u0131. Bu da olumlu.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dcye \u00fclkelerin IMF&#8217;ye 200 milyar euro ek kaynak sa\u011flamalar\u0131 kararla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131. B\u00f6ylelikle, \u00fcyelerin kredi notlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi riskine ra\u011fmen sorunlu \u00fclkelere do\u011frudan kredi a\u00e7malar\u0131 yerine, bu i\u015fi IMF yapabilecek. Ek olarak, Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n parpa koymas\u0131yla Avrupa d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan da baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerin katk\u0131 yapmalar\u0131n\u0131n kolayla\u015faca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu karar da olumlu. Sorun elbette var: IMF&#8217;nin bu paran\u0131n hepsini Avrupa&#8217;ya kulland\u0131rmas\u0131 beklenmiyor. Ayr\u0131ca, ECB, bu para ile sorunlu \u00fclkelerin devlet tahvilinden sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n &#8216;sorunun etraf\u0131ndan dolanmak&#8217; anlam\u0131na gelece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n<p>Bir de bor\u00e7 yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rmalar\u0131nda \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn de elini ta\u015f\u0131n alt\u0131na koymas\u0131n\u0131 isteyen maddeler gev\u015fetildi. Bu maddeler, kamu tahvili tutan \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn tepkisini \u00e7ekerek risk primini y\u00fckseltiyordu. Bu karar da piyasalarca olumlu kar\u015f\u0131land\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130spanya ve \u0130talya&#8217;n\u0131n finansman gereksinimi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli k\u00f6pr\u00fc kredi ihtiyac\u0131 tam olarak \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclemedi. Bu kayna\u011f\u0131 sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen \u00f6nlemlerden zirvede kabul edilmeyenler \u015funlar: \u00dclkelerce &#8216;ortak tahvil (Eurobond)&#8217; \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131. ESM&#8217;ye bankac\u0131l\u0131k lisans\u0131 vererek, ESM&#8217;nin sermayesini kald\u0131ra\u00e7 olarak kullanarak ECB&#8217;den bor\u00e7lan\u0131p ek devlet tahvili almas\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca ECB&#8217;nin \u00e7ok daha fazla tahvil almas\u0131 da \u00f6neriliyordu. ECB, yukar\u0131da de\u011findi\u011fim gibi buna kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">2012 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan sonu\u00e7 \u015fu: Avrupa&#8217;da at\u0131lan ad\u0131m do\u011fru y\u00f6nde. Ancak piyasalar\u0131 rahatlatacak kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ad\u0131m de\u011fil bu. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, Grafik 2&#8217;de g\u00f6r\u00fclen e\u011filimin ne yaz\u0131k ki s\u00fcrmesi beklenir. Yani, T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;ye net sermaye giri\u015fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeylerde kalacak; dahas\u0131 azalmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da var. Bizim 2012 b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan hi\u00e7 sevindirici bir geli\u015fme de\u011fil bu.<\/p>\n<p>Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n 2011&#8217;de y\u00fczde 1.6 olan b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n, 2012&#8217;de y\u00fczde 1.1&#8217;e d\u00fc\u015fmesini bekliyor IMF. Ama bu beklenti ekim ay\u0131ndaki beklenti ve o zamanki ko\u015fullar\u0131n daha a\u011f\u0131rla\u015fmayaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131yor. Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n daha da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir oranda b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, hatta k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 var. \u0130hracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n yar\u0131ya yak\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 Avrupa&#8217;ya yap\u0131yoruz. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck Avrupa b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, ihracat\u0131m\u0131z ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmemiz a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumlu olmayacak.<\/p>\n<p>ABD&#8217;den hi\u00e7 s\u00f6z etmedim. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda merak edilen konulardan biri de FED&#8217;in yeni bir parasal geni\u015flemeye gidip gitmeyece\u011fiydi. FED, eyl\u00fcldeki toplant\u0131 sonras\u0131nda gitmeyece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. \u015eu anda da b\u00f6yle bir beklenti yok. Ama tam tersi de olmayacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Yani, k\u00fcresel kriz s\u0131ras\u0131nda bol kep\u00e7e da\u011f\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131 paray\u0131, FED&#8217;in 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda geri \u00e7ekmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131 beklenmiyor. Keza, politika faizini y\u00fckseltmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131na da pek ihtimal verilmiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu durumda T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in ana belirleyici Avrupa olacak. Orta Vadeli Program&#8217;\u0131n 2012 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini y\u00fczde 4, OECD&#8217;nin y\u00fczde 3, IMF&#8217;nin ise y\u00fczde 2. Y\u00fczde 1-3 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fu anda makul g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ama bu tahminin y\u00fcksek kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funu unutmamak gerekiyor. Avrupa&#8217;daki sorunlar a\u011f\u0131rla\u015f\u0131rsa ekonomimizin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da var. Ancak \u015fimdilik, ekonomimizin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Son g\u00fcnler\u00a0\u00e7ok hareketliydi. \u00d6nce Avrupa Bankac\u0131l\u0131k Kurumu (EBA), arkas\u0131ndan ise Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) baz\u0131 kararlar ald\u0131lar. Per\u015fembe ak\u015fam\u0131 ba\u015flayan ve sonucu merakla beklenen Avrupal\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8870","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8870","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8870"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8870\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8870"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8870"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8870"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}