{"id":8864,"date":"2011-12-14T10:11:55","date_gmt":"2011-12-14T07:11:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=8864"},"modified":"2011-12-14T10:12:23","modified_gmt":"2011-12-14T07:12:23","slug":"akp%e2%80%99de-miras-kavgasi-ve-risk-primi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/akp%e2%80%99de-miras-kavgasi-ve-risk-primi\/","title":{"rendered":"AKP\u2019de Miras Kavgas\u0131 ve Risk Primi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ben bu sat\u0131rlar\u0131 yazarken, MSCI GOP Indeksi 2 haftal\u0131k, Rusya MICEX ise 2 ayl\u0131k dip yap\u0131yordu.\u00a0 B\u00fct\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131m bankalar\u0131 raporlar\u0131n\u0131 ve finans websitelerini okuyun, Rusya b\u00f6lgede F\/K\u2019s\u0131 en ucuz, 2012 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini en y\u00fcksek \u00fclke.\u00a0 Petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda da gerileme beklenmiyor.\u00a0 Peki \u00f6yleyse Rusya\u2019da niye b\u00f6ylesine sat\u0131\u015f var?\u00a0 Cevab\u0131 10 binlerce ki\u015fi, Putin\u2019i protesto etmek i\u00e7in y\u00fcr\u00fcd\u00fc diye.\u00a0 Bu \u00f6nemli \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc, k\u00fcresel fonlar\u0131n politik riske kar\u015f\u0131 derilerinin kal\u0131n oldu\u011fu g\u00f6zleminin palavra oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. \u00a0\u00a0Bir \u00fclkenin istikrar\u0131 tehlikede oldu\u011fu zaman risk primi de artacakt\u0131r.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2048207312\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Bu primdeki art\u0131\u015f o anda k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131yla ters orant\u0131l\u0131. Yani, b\u00fct\u00fcn fonlar a\u011f\u0131zlar\u0131 k\u00f6p\u00fcrerek riskli varl\u0131k topluyorsa, \u00fclkenin ufak-tefek s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilebilir.\u00a0 Ama, gelecek senenin en az\u0131ndan ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda risk i\u015ftah\u0131 \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyredecek.\u00a0 \u015eu ana kadar AB krizinin tela\u015f\u0131 ile T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin politik risk profiline yak\u0131ndan bakmayan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar da bir ka\u00e7 ay i\u00e7inde riskin h\u0131zla y\u00fckseldi\u011fini farkedecekler. Bu \u00fclkede art\u0131k en le\u015f yiyici s\u0131cak para hari\u00e7 yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 bar\u0131nmaz. En le\u015f yiyici s\u0131cak para nedir?\u00a0 TCMB bankalara ortalama %7.91\u2019den bor\u00e7 veriyorsa, bankalara %7.90\u2019dan bor\u00e7 verecek herkes bu sisteme dolu\u015fur.\u00a0 Hele TCMB\u2019nin bir de z\u0131mni kur hedeflemesi varsa, yani merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fcnah\u0131 olan d\u00f6viz kurunu belli bir seviyede tutmay\u0131 hedefliyorsa\u2014 oohh, bedava para. Hesab\u0131 basit.\u00a0 TCMB Beklenti Anketin\u2019de 12 ay sonras\u0131 dolar\/TL \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc 1.80, yani TL de\u011fer kazanacak. \u00dcst\u00fcne bir de gecelik para satt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z %7.9\u2019u koyun.\u00a0 \u0130\u015fte le\u015f yiyici paran\u0131n en sevdi\u011fi denklem.\u00a0 Yar\u0131n, TCMB fonlama faizini %5.75\u2019e \u00e7eksin bir g\u00fcnde hepsi ka\u00e7ar gider.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Ama bu opportunist paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda finansal sermaye girmez T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye. Sebebi de basit. Art\u0131k hi\u00e7 kimse bu ekonomi y\u00f6netimine g\u00fcvenmiyor. H\u00fck\u00fcmet ve TCMB\u2019in izledi\u011fi politikalar Harvard\u2019da yak\u0131nda \u201cEkonomi Nas\u0131l Y\u00f6netilmez?\u201d dersinde vaka analizi olarak okutulacak. TCMB 13 ayd\u0131r cari a\u00e7\u0131kla m\u00fccadele ediyor, 50 milyardan 80 milyara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Kredi hacmini yava\u015flatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. TCMB bu yola sapt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda krediler y\u0131ll\u0131k %30 b\u00fcy\u00fcyordu, \u015fimdi %34 b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. O zaman enflasyon %5\u2019di, \u015fimdi %10. D\u0130BS bile\u015fikleri %6.5\u2019a kadar gerilemi\u015fti, bug\u00fcn %10.4. 13 ayd\u0131r ekonomiyi so\u011futamayan TCMB, Londra\u2019da ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 tedbirlerin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda so\u011futmak i\u00e7in yeterli oldu\u011funu y\u00fcz\u00fc k\u0131zarmadan iddia ediyor. \u015eakadan da k\u00f6t\u00fc.\u00a0 AB\u2019den gelen kredi darbo\u011faz\u0131 kap\u0131ya dayanm\u0131\u015f, gelecek sene 200 milyar toplam d\u0131\u015f finansman ihtiyac\u0131 var, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nlem, ithal mal\u0131 ikamesi \u00fcretim yapacak KOB\u0130\u2019lere nakit te\u015fvik vermek. Yani b\u00fct\u00e7e dengesini daha da berbat etmek. Art\u0131k ekonominin bir numaral\u0131 riski Ankara\u2019d\u0131r.\u00a0 Gelecek senenin ilk aylar\u0131nda 3 b\u00fcy\u00fck de kredi notumuzu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde\u00a0 \u201cAtilla dediydi\u201d diyeceksiniz.<\/p>\n<p>Risk primindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ikinci nedeni b\u00f6lgesel gerginlikler.\u00a0 Bu hususta AKP\u2019nin hi\u00e7 bir kabahati yok, aksine son derece dirayetli ve ak\u0131lc\u0131 bir d\u0131\u015f politika \u00e7izgisi izliyor, ama Arap\u2019\u0131n deyimiyle \u201cahali pu\u015ft\u201d. B\u00f6lgede Rusya ve \u0130ran\u2019la Bat\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki iki ihtilaf\u0131n tam ortas\u0131nday\u0131z, \u00e7amur ister istemez bize de s\u0131\u00e7rayacak.\u00a0 Birincisi F\u00fcze Kalkan\u0131. \u00a0Rusya ve \u0130ran F\u00fcze Kalkan\u0131 istemiyor, biz Malatya\u2019ya radar istasyonu kuruyoruz. \u0130kincisi Bat\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer silah edinmeye \u00e7ok yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na emin. Bir iki hafta i\u00e7inde ABD ve AB\u2019den \u015fimdiye kadar g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131kta yeni yat\u0131r\u0131mlar gelecek.\u00a0 Biden ve Panetta bo\u015funa Ankara\u2019ya gelmiyor.\u00a0 Yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara bizim de kat\u0131lmam\u0131z\u0131 isteyecekler.\u00a0 Bu yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar da yetmezse, \u0130srail bir sene i\u00e7inde \u0130ran\u2019a hava sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 d\u00fczenleyecek. \u0130ran da kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k olarak T\u00fcrkiye dahil b\u00f6lgedeki t\u00fcm sivil ABD-\u0130ngiliz hedeflerini vuracak.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ekonomihaberyorum.com\/akp%E2%80%99de-miras-kavgasi-ve-risk-primi\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">BURAYI<\/a> ziyaret ediniz.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ben bu sat\u0131rlar\u0131 yazarken, MSCI GOP Indeksi 2 haftal\u0131k, Rusya MICEX ise 2 ayl\u0131k dip yap\u0131yordu.\u00a0 B\u00fct\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131m bankalar\u0131 raporlar\u0131n\u0131 ve finans websitelerini okuyun, Rusya&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":927,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8864","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8864","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8864"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8864\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/927"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8864"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8864"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8864"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}