{"id":8828,"date":"2011-12-13T10:48:17","date_gmt":"2011-12-13T07:48:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=8828"},"modified":"2011-12-13T10:48:17","modified_gmt":"2011-12-13T07:48:17","slug":"buyume-cari-acik","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/buyume-cari-acik\/","title":{"rendered":"B\u00fcy\u00fcme-Cari a\u00e7\u0131k"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye 3.\u00c7eyrekte %8.2 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Yani d\u00fcnyada \u00c7in&#8217;den sonra b\u00fcy\u00fcyen yine en h\u0131zl\u0131 ekonomiyiz. Baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131z hemen, hadi ordan diyerekten &#8220;Cari A\u00e7\u0131\u011fa&#8221; ne olacak diye humurdalanmalar\u0131 duyar gibiyim.\u00a0Cari a\u00e7\u0131k ise y\u0131ll\u0131k 78.6 milyar dolara y\u00fckseldi. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re (Ocak-Ekim) tam %94&#8217;l\u00fck bir art\u0131\u015f. Rakam ger\u00e7ekten muazzam!!\u00a0Bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile bu cari a\u00e7\u0131k ile duvara toslar\u0131z diyenlerin say\u0131s\u0131 olduk\u00e7a fazla. Kafalarda yine en \u00e7ok sorulan soru ise &#8220;Cari A\u00e7\u0131k Kriz yarat\u0131r m\u0131?&#8221;\u00a0 Krizi tacirlerine yine g\u00fcn do\u011facakm\u0131?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1645726685\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Kriz lobisi Cari a\u00e7\u0131k\/GSMH oran\u0131n\u0131n kritik e\u015fik olan %5&#8217;i ge\u00e7ti\u011fi zamandan beri faaliyette. Fakat uzun zamand\u0131r bu seviyelerin bir hayli \u00fczerinde hareket etmemize ra\u011fmen\u00a0onlarda krizin bu nedenli kap\u0131y\u0131 \u00e7almamas\u0131 i\u015fine yada s\u00fcrekli te\u011fet ge\u00e7iyor olu\u015funa\u00a0\u015fa\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumdalar. Arkada\u015flar paradigmalar art\u0131k tamamen de\u011fi\u015fti ve bunun fark\u0131ndal\u0131\u011f\u0131na baz\u0131 kesimlerin iyice varmas\u0131 gerekiyor.1994 krizine $6.4Milyar,\u00a02001 krizine ise $10milyar cari a\u00e7\u0131k ile\u00a0girdik. T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin en vurucu bu iki krizindede tek sorun cari a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Cumhuriyet tarihinin en b\u00fcy\u00fck krizini ya\u015fad\u0131ktan sonrada cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z t\u00fcm \u00e7arklar\u0131n durmas\u0131yla do\u011fal olarak $1.5Milyar&#8217;a kadar inmi\u015fti. 2002 y\u0131l\u0131ndan itibaren muazzam bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u00fcrecine giren T\u00fck ekonomisine bu\u00a0 devrede \u015fu anki bulundu\u011fumuz cari a\u00e7\u0131k seviyelerine kadar ula\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f durumda. Peki bu kadar muazzam cari a\u00e7\u0131kla bu \u00fclkede niye kriz patlak vermiyorun cevab\u0131 ise \u00e7ok basit..Art\u0131k parametreler ezberlerin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Peki nedir bu ezber bozan de\u011fi\u015fkenler? \u00a0Hat\u0131rlarsan\u0131z ge\u00e7mi\u015fe bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda \u00a0ilk parametreleri \u00a0Maastricht kriterlerindeki %-3 B\u00fct\u00e7e A\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131\/GSYIH ve %60 Kamu Borcu\/GSYIH oranlar\u0131 ile tan\u0131mlan\u0131p bu seviyeler s\u0131n\u0131r olarak G20 i\u00e7inde yer alan AB \u00fcyesi \u00fclkeler ve adaylar i\u00e7in \u015fart ko\u015fulmu\u015ftu. Cari A\u00e7\u0131k taraf\u0131nda ise 1994-2001 y\u0131llar\u0131 krizlerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Cari A\u00e7\u0131k\/GSMH oran\u0131 \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 %3.5-4.5 aras\u0131 olarak s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir e\u015fik olarak tan\u0131mlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ancak geli\u015fmi\u015f ve bizim gibi geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerde cari e\u015fik oran\u0131 mevcut olmamakla birlikte bir kriter te\u015fkil etmemekte. Daha sonraki y\u0131llarda ise bu oran %5-7 aras\u0131na revize edilmi\u015f 2002-2007 aras\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00f6neminde\u00a0 de bu oranlara gelmemize ra\u011fmen cari a\u00e7\u0131k sorunu s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilinir oldu\u011fundan bir kriz ya\u015famad\u0131k. Peki nerden geliyor bu s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirlilik? IMF 2011 sonu itibariyle yaz aylar\u0131nda %10.5 oranlar\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 tahmininde bulunmu\u015ftu. Bug\u00fcn bu oran %9 seviyesine y\u00fckselmi\u015f durumda. Yani asl\u0131nda k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 alarm bas bas ba\u011f\u0131r\u0131yor. Krizdemiyiz? Hay\u0131r! \u00d6yleyse Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 finanse eden kalemlere bir g\u00f6z atal\u0131m. \u0130hraacat, hizmet gelirleri ki bunun ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 turizm \u00e7ekiyor,\u00a0 k\u0131sa vadeli sermaye hareketleri, uzun vadeli sermaye hareketleri. Ha birde unutmadan Net Hata Noksan. Nedir bu net hata noksan? Kimsenin cevap veremedi\u011fi bir soru. Bende pek kurcalamayaca\u011f\u0131m ama bu sadece cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n %25\u2019\u0131 finanse ediyor. Her y\u0131l bir \u015fekilde \u00fcst\u00fc \u00f6rt\u00fcl\u00fc bi\u00e7imde NHN\/Cari a\u00e7\u0131k oran\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmekte. \u0130\u015fte son y\u0131llarda belirgin \u015fekilde artan bu parametre bizi ayakta tutmaya yetiyor. T\u00fcrkiye nas\u0131l bir deprem \u00fclkesiyse ve bununla ya\u015famaya mecbursa ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde T\u00fcrkiye cari a\u00e7\u0131kla \u00a0ya\u015famaya bu on y\u0131llarda baz\u0131 dengeler de\u011fi\u015fene dek \u00a0mecbur \u00fclkelerin ba\u015f\u0131nda geliyor. Bu bizim i\u00e7in ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz bir s\u00fcre\u00e7. Geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomimiz i\u00e7in ihtiya\u00e7 olan teknoloji, ara mal\u0131 ithalat\u0131 ve yat\u0131r\u0131m mallar\u0131 ithalat\u0131 etmemiz \u015fartt\u0131r. Bu nedenle kalk\u0131nma ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u00fcrecinde enerji girdisi yani en \u00f6nemli kalem olan petrol ithal etti\u011fimiz s\u00fcrece d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131kta b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri g\u00f6rmemiz ger\u00e7ekten \u00e7ok zor. 2023 Cumhuriyetin 100. Y\u0131l\u0131 m\u00fcnasebetiyle yola \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lan hedefler aras\u0131nda ara mal\u0131 ithalat\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck oranlarda azalma g\u00f6sterece\u011fi ku\u015fkusuz hepimizin iste\u011fi. Bu anlamda at\u0131lan uzun vadeli yat\u0131r\u0131mlar \u00f6zellikle son y\u0131llarda \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r bor\u00e7lulu\u011funun da en \u00f6nemli kayna\u011f\u0131. Fakat bu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bor\u00e7lulu\u011fu uzun vadede s\u00fcspanse etmesi beklenmektedir.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye olarak as\u0131l Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilinirli\u011fini tehdit eden en b\u00fcy\u00fck unsur enflasyon ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla olu\u015fabilecek\u00a0 y\u00fcksek faiz, ya da \u00e7ok a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferli kur veya \u00a0k\u0131sa vadeli sermaye hareketlerindeki mali piyasalardaki hacmine g\u00f6re y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. 2003-2007 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda MB politikas\u0131nda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz- s\u0131cak para giri\u015fi-d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kur ile enflasyon tamamen kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f, fakat ya\u015faman b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile ithalat\u0131n patlamas\u0131na sebep olmu\u015ftu. Yine de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kura ra\u011fmen ihracat geri kalmam\u0131\u015f ama cari dengedeki ilk ciddi bozulman\u0131n temellerini atm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 2007 sonras\u0131 2008 kriziyle birlikte MB para politikalar\u0131nda ki de\u011fi\u015fiklik bu sefer daha y\u00fcksek faiz-y\u00fcksek kur para politikas\u0131yla D\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesinde ihracat taraf\u0131ndaki a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k ile denge kurulmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f ama son iki y\u0131ldaki muazzam b\u00fcy\u00fcme cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n daralmas\u0131na etki etmemi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015fte bu noktada T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin di\u011fer iki kriterleri \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131karak yine Cari A\u00e7\u0131k tabanl\u0131 krizin patlak vermemesine sebep olmaktad\u0131r. \u00d6zellikle Almanya ile birlikte T\u00fcrkiye Avrupa\u2019da Kamu Borcu\/GSYIH oran\u0131 %40\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalan iki \u00fclke olurken, B\u00fct\u00e7e A\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131\/GSYIH oran\u0131 ise %3\u2019e kadar d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.\u00a0 Bu iki parametre bizi kuvvetli tutmakta. Fakat \u015fu ger\u00e7ek var ki bunu kesinlikle g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edemeyiz.\u00a0 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye maalesef Abd, \u0130talya ve Fransa\u2019dan sonra ki en b\u00fcy\u00fck a\u00e7\u0131k. \u015euan milli gelirin %9\u2019u oran\u0131nda verdi\u011fimiz cari a\u00e7\u0131k ABD\u2019de\u00a0 %3.7 oranlar\u0131nda. Di\u011fer \u00fclkelerde ise bu oran %4\u2019\u00fc ge\u00e7memekte.2001 krizinde %9 oran\u0131nla \u00e7arp\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 unutmamak gerek. Sadece son bir y\u0131lda 45 milyar dolardan 7 8 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kan cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki en b\u00fcy\u00fck s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc kurtulamam\u0131zd\u0131r. K\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 alarm\u0131n \u00e7ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu noktada beklide Avrupa\u2019da\u00a0 ya\u015fanan bor\u00e7 krizi imdad\u0131m\u0131za yeti\u015ferek\u00a0 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnyada beklenen genel anlamdaki ekonomik\u00a0 yava\u015flaman\u0131n olmas\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fck bir nefes alma y\u0131l\u0131 olacak. \u0130plerin u\u00e7lar\u0131 bir hayli ka\u00e7m\u0131\u015fken b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki yava\u015flama ile birlikte IMF\u2019nin tahminleri Cari A\u00e7\u0131k\/GSMH oran\u0131n\u0131n yeniden %7.5 d\u00fczeylerine geri inece\u011fini tahmin etmekte. MB\u2019nin Ekim ay\u0131ndan itibaren alm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu mali ve para politikas\u0131n\u0131 tamamen Cari A\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 azalt\u0131c\u0131 \u00f6nlemleri hedeflemesi, bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra enflasyona yeniden odaklanmas\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 alarm seviyelerinden d\u00f6nmesine neden olacakt\u0131r. Asl\u0131nda ne olursa olsun bir \u00e7o\u011fumuzun y\u00fcre\u011fi a\u011fz\u0131na geldi\u011fi bu rasyolarda \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llarda kesinlikle halletmemiz gereken sorunlar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda enerjideki d\u0131\u015fa ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir \u015fekilde farkl\u0131 y\u00f6ntemlerle halletmemiz gerekmekte. \u0130hracat\u0131n ithalata olan ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in ara mal\u0131 ve yat\u0131r\u0131m mallar\u0131nda yurti\u00e7i \u00fcretim kapasitelerini ve do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 artmas\u0131 \u00a0i\u00e7in \u00f6zellikle 2013-2018 Cumhuriyet\u2019in 100. Y\u0131l \u00f6ncesi son 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k plan\u0131nda kesinlikle ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi gerekmekte. \u0130hracat\u0131n %65\u2019ni Avrupa k\u0131ta sahas\u0131na yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u015fu d\u00f6nemde Avrupa bor\u00e7 krizi\u00a0 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu oran\u0131 daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmede Kuzey Afrika, Ortado\u011fu, Hindistan, Uzakdo\u011fu\u00a0 ve Latin Amerika \u00fclke pazarlar\u0131na kaymam\u0131z ad\u0131na beklide hem bizi zorunlu k\u0131lacak hem de \u00e7ok daha \u00f6nemli f\u0131rsatlar yaratmam\u0131za ve yakalamam\u0131za sebebiyet verecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Burak Ger\u00e7ek\u00a0<br \/>\n<a href=\"mailto:burakgercek@gmail.com\">burakgercek@gmail.com<\/a><br \/>\nTwitter\u2019dan Seansi\u00e7i Anl\u0131k Teknik Yorumlar\u0131 takip edebilirsiniz.<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/#%21\/BURAKGERCEK\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">http:\/\/twitter.com\/BURAKGERCEK<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye 3.\u00c7eyrekte %8.2 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Yani d\u00fcnyada \u00c7in&#8217;den sonra b\u00fcy\u00fcyen yine en h\u0131zl\u0131 ekonomiyiz. Baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131z hemen, hadi ordan diyerekten &#8220;Cari A\u00e7\u0131\u011fa&#8221; ne olacak diye humurdalanmalar\u0131 duyar&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8829,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8828","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8828","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8828"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8828\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8829"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8828"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8828"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8828"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}