{"id":8821,"date":"2011-12-13T09:08:36","date_gmt":"2011-12-13T06:08:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=8821"},"modified":"2011-12-13T10:08:51","modified_gmt":"2011-12-13T07:08:51","slug":"buyume-ve-cari-acik-ne-soyluyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/buyume-ve-cari-acik-ne-soyluyor\/","title":{"rendered":"B\u00fcy\u00fcme ve Cari A\u00e7\u0131k Ne S\u00f6yl\u00fcyor?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00dc\u0130K&#8217;in d\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n Ekim ay\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131yla 10 ayl\u0131k cari a\u00e7\u0131k rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcmede frenin tam yans\u0131mad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131kta ise k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir yava\u015flaman\u0131n oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda Orta Vadeli Program\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi y\u00fczde 4 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini sa\u011flamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131rken, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n buna paralel a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekilmesi i\u00e7in mikro reformlar\u0131 hayata sokarak \u00fcretimimizde yerli girdileri art\u0131rmay\u0131, ithalat\u0131 azaltmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnerek, daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131, daha az k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir ekonomik yap\u0131ya ula\u015fmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4099389809\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>T\u00dc\u0130K taraf\u0131ndan d\u00fcn \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u00fczde 8.2, dokuz ayl\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme 9.6 olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re 2008 krizinde son \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 7 daralma ile ba\u015flayan ve d\u00f6rt \u00e7eyrek devam ettikten sonra 2009 y\u0131l\u0131 son \u00e7eyre\u011finde yeniden ba\u015flayan b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki s\u00fcreklilik 8 \u00e7eyre\u011fe ula\u015ft\u0131. Merkez Bankas\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan ise Ekim ay\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi 4 milyar 151 milyon on ayl\u0131k cari a\u00e7\u0131k ise 65 milyar 57 milyon olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Bu rakamlar hem b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki beklentinin hem cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki beklentinin a\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p>2010 Orta vadeli program\u0131nda y\u00fczde 4.5 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakam\u0131 2011 program\u0131nda y\u00fczde 7.5 olarak revize edilmi\u015fti. Ancak T\u00dc\u0130K veriler y\u0131lsonu b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin bunu da a\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00dc\u0130K \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini a\u00e7\u0131klarken daha \u00f6nce y\u00fczde 11.6 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ilk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini revize edip y\u00fczde 12&#8217;ye y\u00fckseltti. T\u00dc\u0130K, ikinci \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini de\u011fi\u015ftirmeden y\u00fczde 8.8&#8217;de tuttu. Dokuz ayl\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 9.6 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131rken, d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte b\u00fcy\u00fcme kaydedilmezse y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 7 olacak. Son \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u00fczde 5 olursa y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme 8.4, 6 olursa 8.6, 7 olursa 8.9, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekteki gibi 8 olursa y\u00fczde 9.2 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek.<\/p>\n<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan Ekim ay\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 24.5 art\u0131\u015fla 4 milyar 151 milyara ula\u015fmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n, cari a\u00e7\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fckte olsa bir fren geldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Ekim ay\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana 10 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131. Bu frene kar\u015f\u0131n cari a\u00e7\u0131k on ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde y\u00fczde 93.5 art\u0131\u015fla 65 milyara ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Y\u0131l\u0131k olarak ise 78 milyar 611 milyon rakam\u0131nda. Bu da 2011 cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n 80 milyar dolay\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu sonuca ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 ise 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k ara en y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131k verdi\u011fimiz y\u0131l konumuna getirecek.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de cari a\u00e7\u0131k a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin negatif veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu y\u0131llarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. 2001 y\u0131l\u0131nda 3 milyar 760 milyon dolar cari fazla verildikten sonra, 2002 y\u0131l\u0131nda 626 milyon dolar cari a\u00e7\u0131k verildikten sonra 2008 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar y\u0131ldan y\u0131la y\u00fczde 1000 ile y\u00fczde 50 aras\u0131nda art\u0131\u015flarla o y\u0131l 41 milyar 659 milyon dolara y\u00fckseldi.2009 y\u0131l\u0131nda kriz d\u00f6neminde 13 milyar 991 milyon dolara gerileyen cari a\u00e7\u0131k, 2010&#8217;da yeniden y\u00fckselerek 47 milyar 99 milyon dolar olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Son aylarda frenlenmesine kar\u015f\u0131n bu y\u0131lsonunda 80 milyar dolar olmas\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. Bu haliyle de \u00f6nemli bir sorunumuz olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcme ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k rakamlar\u0131 bize ne s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor?<\/p>\n<p>Geli\u015fmeler cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ama \u00f6nemli sorun olmaya devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Tasarruf eksi\u011fi olan bir \u00fclke olarak esas itibariyle yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n tasarruflar\u0131n\u0131 kullanarak b\u00fcy\u00fcyen bir \u00fclke oldu\u011fumuz i\u00e7in, e\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fcmemizi gelecek y\u0131l y\u00fczde 4&#8217;lere sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak \u00e7ekebilirsek, daha az d\u0131\u015f kayna\u011fa ihtiya\u00e7 duyaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 gelecek y\u0131l a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekebiliriz. Biz Orta Vadeli Programda 2012&#8217;de y\u00fczde 4 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi hedefliyoruz, OECD bizim y\u00fczde 3, IMF y\u00fczde 2.2 b\u00fcy\u00fcmemizi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. E\u011fer onlar\u0131n tahminleri do\u011frulan\u0131rsa cari a\u00e7\u0131k t\u0131pk\u0131 2009 y\u0131l\u0131nda 2008&#8217;in y\u00fczde 34&#8217;\u00fcne gerilemesi gibi \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterebilir. Ama bu cari a\u00e7\u0131k kadar b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin de frenlenmesi anlam\u0131na gelir. Sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 olan geli\u015fme bu d\u00f6nemde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi 2012&#8217;de y\u00fczde 4-5&#8217;lerde tutarken mikro reformlarla \u00fcretime yerli katk\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131c\u0131, ithalat\u0131 azalt\u0131c\u0131 yolun bulunmas\u0131d\u0131r. Biz b\u00fcy\u00fcmemizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek yola devam edemeyiz. B\u00fcy\u00fcmemizi gelecek y\u0131l d\u00f6rtte birine d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekmemiz sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir geli\u015fme olmaz.<\/p>\n<p>NOT: D\u00fcnk\u00fc yaz\u0131mda Yap\u0131 Kredi bankas\u0131n\u0131n takipteki alacaklar\u0131 yaz\u0131m hatas\u0131yla aradaki noktan\u0131n eksik kalmas\u0131yla y\u00fczde 31 olarak yay\u0131nlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Do\u011frusu y\u00fczde 3.1&#8217;dir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3620388016\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00dc\u0130K&#8217;in d\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n Ekim ay\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131yla 10 ayl\u0131k cari a\u00e7\u0131k rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcmede frenin tam yans\u0131mad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131kta&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":903,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8821","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8821","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/22"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8821"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8821\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/903"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8821"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8821"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8821"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}