{"id":8815,"date":"2011-12-13T10:04:17","date_gmt":"2011-12-13T07:04:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=8815"},"modified":"2011-12-13T10:04:27","modified_gmt":"2011-12-13T07:04:27","slug":"ucuncu-ceyrekte-buyume","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ucuncu-ceyrekte-buyume\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00c7eyrekte B\u00fcy\u00fcme"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Normal olarak bug\u00fcn AB zirvesine bakard\u0131m. Pazar yaz\u0131mdaki \u201c\u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm yolunda bir dizi \u00f6nemli ad\u0131m at\u0131ld\u0131\u201d c\u00fcmlesine bir okuyucudan \u201cne gibi?\u201d sorusu geldi. Ama d\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme verileri konuyu ikinci plana att\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-687915760\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ekimde cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 24 art\u0131\u015fla 4.2 milyar dolar oldu. Daha b\u00fcy\u00fck a\u00e7\u0131k bekleniyordu. (4.5 milyar dolar). Y\u0131ll\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131k 79 milyar dolarla zirveye t\u0131rmand\u0131. Uzun s\u00fcre k\u0131r\u0131lamayacak bir rekordur. Bundan sonra d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7er.<\/p>\n<p>Esas s\u00fcrprizi b\u00fcy\u00fcme yapt\u0131. Piyasa \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte milli gelirin y\u00fczde 7 civar\u0131nda artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyordu. Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc ben y\u00fczde 7.5 demi\u015ftim. Karamsar kald\u0131m. T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in hesab\u0131 y\u00fczde 8.2 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Bu arada ilk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi 0.4 puan art\u0131\u015fla y\u00fczde 12\u2019ye revize edildi. \u0130kinci \u00e7eyrek de\u011fi\u015fmedi (y\u00fczde 8.8). \u0130lk dokuz ay\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 y\u00fczde 9.6, y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 y\u00fczde 9.5 oldu. Son on be\u015f y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi h\u0131z\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Dolar cinsinden y\u0131ll\u0131k milli gelir 793 milyar dolara y\u00fckseldi. D\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k gibi bu da tarihi bir zirvedir. Bundan sonra d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7er. Makul b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131zlar\u0131 ile bile \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l 750 milyar dolar iyimserdir. Dolar hesab\u0131n\u0131 sevenlere k\u00f6t\u00fc haberdir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Konjonkt\u00fcr sorular\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Milli gelir konjonkt\u00fcr analizinin en temel girdisidir. Zaten ba\u015ftan bu ama\u00e7la geli\u015ftirilmi\u015ftir. Bu nedenle konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fcn y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc kestirebilmek i\u00e7in iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar heyecanla \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek milli gelir verilerini bekliyordu.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ktisat politikas\u0131 g\u00fcndemini olu\u015fturan \u00fc\u00e7 kritik soruyu hat\u0131rlayal\u0131m. Ekonomi yava\u015fl\u0131yor mu? \u0130\u00e7 taleple d\u0131\u015f talep aras\u0131ndaki dengesizlik s\u00fcr\u00fcyor mu? \u201cYumu\u015fak ini\u015f\u201d senaryosu ge\u00e7erlili\u011fini koruyor mu?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1854731860\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Tek \u00e7eyre\u011fin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 ile bunlara kesin cevap vermek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir. Gene de, d\u00fcne k\u0131yasla daha \u00e7ok bilgimiz var. Baz\u0131 e\u011filimleri daha iyi g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile baz\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar \u00e7\u0131kartabiliyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u015eeytan ayr\u0131nt\u0131da gizlidir\u201d. \u00d6rne\u011fin farkl\u0131 talep kalemlerinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131lar\u0131na \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde bakaca\u011f\u0131m. Nedenlerini ve anlamlar\u0131n\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131raca\u011f\u0131m. Bug\u00fcn verilerin bende b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 genel izlenimi \u00f6zetlemek istiyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Bir: Ekonomide yava\u015flama i\u015faretleri art\u0131yor. \u0130ki: D\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa yol a\u00e7an i\u00e7-d\u0131\u015f talep aras\u0131ndaki dengesizlik azal\u0131yor. \u00dc\u00e7: Say\u0131lar \u201cyumu\u015fak ini\u015f\u201d ihtimalini k\u0131smen de olsa destekliyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>H\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme iyidir<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1390830637\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin b\u00f6ylesine h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi sevinilmesi gereken bir olayd\u0131r. Bu konuda hi\u00e7 teredd\u00fct olmamal\u0131d\u0131r. Her b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin sorunlar\u0131 vard\u0131r. Ama hi\u00e7 biri b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin durmas\u0131 kadar mahzurlu de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n<p>K\u00fcresel kriz sonras\u0131 deneyimi bu a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00e7ok \u00f6\u011freticidir. B\u00fcy\u00fcme dinami\u011fi bir kez k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131nca arkas\u0131 \u00e7orap s\u00f6k\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi geliyor. Tats\u0131z k\u0131s\u0131r d\u00f6ng\u00fcler ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Gereksiz yere a\u011f\u0131r bir toplumsal bedel \u00f6deniyor. \u201cKula\u011f\u0131m\u0131za k\u00fcpe olsun\u201d derim.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Normal olarak bug\u00fcn AB zirvesine bakard\u0131m. Pazar yaz\u0131mdaki \u201c\u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm yolunda bir dizi \u00f6nemli ad\u0131m at\u0131ld\u0131\u201d c\u00fcmlesine bir okuyucudan \u201cne gibi?\u201d sorusu geldi. Ama d\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8815","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8815","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8815"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8815\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8815"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8815"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8815"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}