{"id":8809,"date":"2011-12-13T10:02:29","date_gmt":"2011-12-13T07:02:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=8809"},"modified":"2011-12-13T10:02:39","modified_gmt":"2011-12-13T07:02:39","slug":"2012de-buyuyebilecek-miyiz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/2012de-buyuyebilecek-miyiz\/","title":{"rendered":"2012&#8217;de B\u00fcy\u00fcyebilecek miyiz?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 1-3 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olmas\u0131 makul g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4261788573\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>D\u00fcn, y\u0131l\u0131n 3. \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 8,2 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc \u00f6\u011frendik. \u0130lk \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in daha \u00f6nce yukar\u0131ya do\u011fru g\u00fcncellenen b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisi bir kez daha ve ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde g\u00fcncellendi (y\u00fczde 12). B\u00f6ylelikle y\u0131l\u0131n ilk dokuz ay\u0131nda 2010\u2019un ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 9,6 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u00d6nce iki saptama yapay\u0131m.<br \/>\n2. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme verileri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131ktan sonra yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m de\u011ferlendirmede \u201c3. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n, 2. \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ama yine de y\u00fcksek say\u0131labilecek bir d\u00fczeyde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenir\u201d demi\u015fim. Evet, 3. \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131klanan b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131, al\u0131nt\u0131daki gibi ikinci \u00e7eyrektekinin alt\u0131nda ama beklentilerin de \u00fczerinde.<br \/>\n\u2018T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin \u0131s\u0131n\u0131p \u0131s\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019 hakk\u0131nda yap\u0131lan tart\u0131\u015fmalara art\u0131k gerek kalmad\u0131; herkes rahat edebilir. Enflasyon verileri, \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyde olan cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, 3. \u00e7eyrekteki h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve ekimde sanayi \u00fcretiminde g\u00f6zlenen y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk dokuz ay\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir \u0131s\u0131nman\u0131n ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kan\u0131tlad\u0131lar.<br \/>\nS\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc etti\u011fim yaz\u0131da 2012\u2019ye ili\u015fkin iki ana senaryo vermi\u015ftim. \u0130lki Avrupa\u2019da krizin \u015fiddetlenmedi\u011fi ve FED kararlar\u0131n\u0131n belirleyici olaca\u011f\u0131 senaryo idi. Baz\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirdikten sonra \u201cBu ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z yine potansiyelimizin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131r ve yine cari a\u00e7\u0131k sorununu tart\u0131\u015f\u0131r\u0131z. Mevcut ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda bu senaryonun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n giderek azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum\u201d demi\u015fim.<br \/>\n\u0130kinci senaryom ise Avrupa\u2019daki krizin daha da \u015fiddetlenmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n giderek y\u00fckseldi\u011fi senaryoydu. Avrupa\u2019daki bankalar\u0131n bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n\u0131n daha da bozulmas\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu oluyordu. Yine baz\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 tart\u0131\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra \u201cEkonomimiz k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcr ve i\u015fsizlik s\u0131\u00e7rar. FED\u2019in yeni bir parasal geni\u015flemeye gitmesi bu olumsuz etkileri bir miktar t\u00f6rp\u00fcleyebilir\u201d yolunda ahk\u00e2m kesmi\u015fim. Al\u0131nt\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m 13 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki bu yaz\u0131dan bir sonraki yaz\u0131mda ise baz\u0131 alt senaryolara yer vermi\u015fim. Senaryo 1\u2019i biraz daha az iyimser yapm\u0131\u015f\u0131m. Ayr\u0131ca, Senaryo 2\u2019deki karamsarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n daha az olmas\u0131n\u0131n hangi ko\u015fullara ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu tart\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f\u0131m. Tahmin edece\u011finiz gibi, iki ko\u015ful da Avrupa\u2019ya ili\u015fkin. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 sorunlu \u00fclkelerin tahvillerinden sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 miktar\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131r m\u0131? Bor\u00e7lanmakta zorluk \u00e7eken \u00fclkelerin daha rahat bor\u00e7lanmalar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak \u00fczere Avrupa ortak tahvili \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131l\u0131r m\u0131?<br \/>\nAvrupa liderler zirvesinden \u00e7\u0131kan sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 tart\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m cumartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc yaz\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u2018Do\u011fru ad\u0131m ama yetersiz\u2019 bi\u00e7imdeydi. O sonu\u00e7lar \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 2012 i\u00e7in, ikinci senaryoya yak\u0131n bir senaryo en akla yak\u0131n\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u015eimdilik, ekonomimizin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Hat\u0131rlarsan\u0131z OVP\u2019nin 2012 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini y\u00fczde 4, OECD\u2019nin y\u00fczde 3, IMF\u2019ninki ise y\u00fczde 2\u2019ydi. Y\u00fczde 1-3 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fu anda makul g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ama bu tahminin y\u00fcksek kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funu da unutmamak gerekiyor.<br \/>\nB\u00fcy\u00fcmede keskin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisinin iki nedeni var: Birincisi, ihracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131 Avrupa\u2019ya. Onlar\u0131n sorunlarla bo\u011fu\u015fmalar\u0131, bizden daha az mal almalar\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. \u0130kincisi, Avrupa\u2019daki bankalar\u0131n kredi stoklar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemli miktarda azaltmalar\u0131 bekleniyor. T\u00fcrkiye yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan daha zor bor\u00e7 bulacak. Bunun bir kan\u0131t\u0131 d\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u00f6demeler dengesi verilerinde var: T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ayl\u0131k ortalama net sermaye giri\u015fi y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde 7.4, ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde 7.8, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde ise 2.8 milyar dolar. Son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n ortalamas\u0131 ise 1.5 milyar dolar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 1-3 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olmas\u0131 makul g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. D\u00fcn, y\u0131l\u0131n 3. \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 8,2 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc \u00f6\u011frendik. \u0130lk \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in daha \u00f6nce yukar\u0131ya do\u011fru g\u00fcncellenen&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8809","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8809","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8809"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8809\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8809"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8809"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8809"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}