{"id":8700,"date":"2011-12-09T13:59:09","date_gmt":"2011-12-09T10:59:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=8700"},"modified":"2011-12-09T13:59:09","modified_gmt":"2011-12-09T10:59:09","slug":"enflasyonda-hedefi-ne-sasirtti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/enflasyonda-hedefi-ne-sasirtti\/","title":{"rendered":"Enflasyonda Hedefi Ne \u015ea\u015f\u0131rtt\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n sene ba\u015f\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 5,5 enflasyon hedefi, neredeyse iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karak y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru \u00e7ift haneye dayand\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-475721032\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 6,40 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen T\u00fcketici Fiyatlar\u0131 Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131, ocak ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 4,90&#8217;a geriledi. Mart ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 4,16, \u015fubatta y\u00fczde 3,99 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon nisan ay\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 4,26 olarak ge\u00e7tikten sonra y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7ti. Y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon may\u0131s ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 7,7, haziran ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 6,24, temmuz ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 6,31, a\u011fustosta y\u00fczde 6,65, eyl\u00fclde y\u00fczde 6,15 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Ekim ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 7,66&#8217;ya \u00e7\u0131kan y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon, kas\u0131mda y\u00fczde 9,48&#8217;e ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Sene ba\u015f\u0131nda 2011 enflasyon hedefini y\u00fczde 5,5 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klayan Merkez Bankas\u0131 gelinen bu de\u011ferle hedefinden olduk\u00e7a uzakla\u015f\u0131rken, enflasyonun y\u00fckselmesinde T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131&#8217;ndaki de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n rol oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor. Olumsuz hava ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonu \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda y\u00fcksek tutmaya devam edece\u011fi, 2012 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finden sonra ise enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimine ge\u00e7ece\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n son Enflasyon Raporunda, bu y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde Euro B\u00f6lgesi&#8217;nde kamu bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fine dair endi\u015felerin artmas\u0131 ve ABD emlak ve emek piyasalar\u0131ndaki toparlanman\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden daha yava\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n, k\u00fcresel ekonomiye dair a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri belirginle\u015ftirdi\u011fi belirtilmi\u015f, k\u00fcresel ekonomiye dair belirsizliklerin artmas\u0131 ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki bozulmaya paralel olarak geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerden sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 g\u00f6zlenirken, bu etkinin geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerde k\u0131sa vadeli enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131p, b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve finansal istikrar kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kartt\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlat\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n, Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 birinci d\u00f6nem beklenti anketine g\u00f6re ise y\u0131l sonu enflasyon beklentisi y\u00fczde 10,25&#8217;e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Kas\u0131m ay\u0131n\u0131n ikinci d\u00f6nem anketinde bu oran y\u00fczde 9,22 d\u00fczeyindeydi.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Enflasyon mart ay\u0131na kadar y\u00fcksek seyredebilir<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Ata Yat\u0131r\u0131m Ba\u015fekonomisti Nurhan To\u011fu\u00e7, enflasyonun y\u00fckselmesinin nedenlerini a\u00e7\u0131klarken, T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131&#8217;ndaki de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ve hava ko\u015fullar\u0131ndaki olumsuzluklar\u0131n etkisiyle g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n enflasyonu \u00e7ok olumsuz etkiledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n<p>Uluslararas\u0131 piyasalarda para bas\u0131m\u0131 hareketlerinin ve global likiditenin artmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki s\u00fcre\u00e7te enflasyonun y\u00fckselmesini tehdit eden fakt\u00f6rlerin ba\u015f\u0131nda gelece\u011fine dikkati \u00e7eken To\u011fu\u00e7, \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti:<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4292111640\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&#8221;T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de ge\u00e7en y\u0131l h\u0131zl\u0131 bir i\u00e7 talep b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi de vard\u0131. Bu talepteki art\u0131\u015f da enflasyonu genel olarak y\u0131l ortas\u0131ndan itibaren h\u0131zla art\u0131rmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l i\u00e7in b\u00f6yle bir s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 yok. Enflasyon mart ay\u0131na kadar y\u00fcksek seyredebilir. Enflasyon, hava ko\u015fullar\u0131 ve TL&#8217;nin de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ile olumsuz etkilenmeye devam edebilir ama bu ge\u00e7ici bir s\u00fcre\u00e7tir. 2012 y\u0131l sonu itibariyle enflasyonun y\u00fczde 5,5 seviyelerine kadar d\u00fc\u015fmesi beklenmeli. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc global bir resesyondan s\u00f6z ediyoruz. Bu da enflasyonu ve genelde fiyatlar seviyesini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u00e7ekmeye y\u00f6nelik bask\u0131lar\u0131 olu\u015fturacakt\u0131r.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>To\u011fu\u00e7, geli\u015fmekte olan merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n, geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n ald\u0131klar\u0131 kararlara kar\u015f\u0131 kendilerini korumak durumunda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, avro ve dolar para birimlerinde geni\u015flemeci para politikas\u0131 izlenmesi sonucu geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomilere para girdi\u011fini, bunun da \u00fclkelerde ekonomik dengeleri de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fini anlatt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa \u00f6nlem olarak ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 kararlar\u0131 an\u0131msatan To\u011fu\u00e7, &#8221;Merkez Bankas\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 dedi ki; &#8216;benim rezervlerimde yeterince dolar var. TL&#8217;nin 1.900&#8217;larda olmas\u0131n\u0131 istemiyorum. Orada tabii bir miktar enflasyonu \u00f6n plana alan de\u011fil, finansal stabiliteyi \u00f6n plana alan bir politika g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken de oydu&#8221; dedi.<\/p>\n<p>Enflasyondaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 kararlarla engellenebilecek bir art\u0131\u015f olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n da alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izen To\u011fu\u00e7, gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131ndaki farkl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret etti.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-348147592\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>To\u011fu\u00e7, &#8221;Merkez Bankas\u0131 bu ko\u015fullarda yapabilece\u011finin en iyisini yap\u0131yor. \u015eu ortamda yeni inovatif y\u00f6ntemler buluyor, rezervlerini i\u015flevsel hale getiriyor, at\u0131l b\u0131rakm\u0131yor ve yap\u0131labilecek en ak\u0131ll\u0131ca hareketleri de yap\u0131yor&#8221; de\u011ferlendirmesini yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Enflasyonun su\u00e7lusu cari a\u00e7\u0131k<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Global Menkul De\u011ferler Strateji M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc G\u00f6khan Uskuay da ithalat talebi ile olu\u015fan d\u00f6viz talebi ve Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz politikas\u0131 ile birlikte T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fer kaybetti\u011fini an\u0131msatt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130thalat pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki geni\u015flemenin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyen Uskuay, \u015fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri payla\u015ft\u0131:<\/p>\n<p>&#8221;Cari a\u00e7\u0131kla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in ithalat\u0131n pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ad\u0131 \u00fczerinde enflasyon yaratt\u0131. Y\u00fczde 9,48&#8217;lik enflasyonun y\u00fczde 3,5&#8217;u TL&#8217;de ya\u015fanan de\u011fer kayb\u0131ndan ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Kurda y\u00fckseli\u015f en b\u00fcy\u00fck ithal kalemlerimiz olan do\u011falgaz ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015fa neden oldu. Kamunun sigara ve alkol fiyatlar\u0131nda ya\u015fanan art\u0131\u015flar ile birlikte enflasyon \u00e7ift haneye ula\u015ft\u0131. Enflasyonun su\u00e7lusu cari a\u00e7\u0131k ve kamunun fiyat ayarlamalar\u0131d\u0131r. Enflasyonun yak\u0131n zamanda gerilememesinin su\u00e7lusu ise sebze ve meyve fiyatlar\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>BloombergHT<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n sene ba\u015f\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 5,5 enflasyon hedefi, neredeyse iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karak y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru \u00e7ift haneye dayand\u0131. 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 6,40 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":7707,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8700","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8700","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8700"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8700\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7707"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8700"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8700"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8700"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}