{"id":8675,"date":"2011-12-09T10:02:52","date_gmt":"2011-12-09T07:02:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=8675"},"modified":"2011-12-09T10:03:01","modified_gmt":"2011-12-09T07:03:01","slug":"dorduncu-madde-konsultasyon-raporu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/dorduncu-madde-konsultasyon-raporu\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc Madde Konsultasyon Raporu"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>IMF yine bizimle ilgili bir not yay\u0131nlad\u0131. Bizde IMF denince arkas\u0131ndan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ve s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 gelmesine al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla IMF T\u00fcrkiye konulu bir rapor yay\u0131nlad\u0131 s\u00f6z\u00fc dahi heyecan yaratmaya yetiyor.Bu defa b\u00f6yle de\u011fil. Heyecanlanacak pek bir \u015fey yok.\u00a0 IMF yine kendi bildi\u011finden \u015fa\u015fmam\u0131\u015f tabii. S\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma, frene basma, daralma falan gibi \u015feyler \u00f6neriyor sonu\u00e7ta. Ama bu defaki \u00f6neriler bir program \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde yap\u0131lm\u0131yor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla acil bir durum s\u00f6zkonusu de\u011fil, ba\u011flay\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da gev\u015fek.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2632440767\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Rutin say\u0131labilecek bir s\u00fcrecin tamamlanmas\u0131 nedeniyle yaz\u0131lan bir not bu. D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc madde konsultasyonu deniliyor bu rutin s\u00fcrece. IMF&#8217;nin\u00a0 belli aral\u0131klarla \u00fcye \u00fclkelere de\u011ferlendirme gezileri yap\u0131yor. Bu geziler d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc madde olarak an\u0131lan bir d\u00fczenleme \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde yap\u0131l\u0131yor. Bir IMF heyeti geliyor, temaslar, g\u00f6zlemler ve de\u011ferlendirmeler yap\u0131yor. \u00dclke ekonomisinin bir foto\u011fraf\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor adeta. Sonra bu foto\u011fraf\u0131n de\u011ferlendirmesini yap\u0131p, \u00f6nerilerini dile getiriyor. Ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan belgeye &#8220;D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc Madde Konsultasyon Raporu&#8221; deniliyor.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>IMF&#8217;nin T\u00fcrkiye konulu son notu da b\u00f6yle bir rapor. Aciliyet durumu yok. Ba\u011flay\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k\u00a0 dozu\u00a0 gev\u015fek. Ama yaz\u0131lan notun bir i\u015fe yaramad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmiyor bu. \u00dclke ekonomisine ili\u015fkin son verilerin yan\u0131s\u0131ra bu verilerin neye i\u015faret etti\u011fine dair uzman de\u011ferlendirmeleri de yer al\u0131r bu raporlarda. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, ba\u015fka hi\u00e7 bir \u00f6zelli\u011fi olmasa bile\u00a0 merakl\u0131s\u0131na bol enformasyon vard\u0131r bunlar\u0131n i\u00e7inde.<\/p>\n<p>Etkileme meselesine gelince konsultasyon raporlar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle etkisiz oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek de do\u011fru olmaz. Ola\u011fan ko\u015fullarda bireysel ve kurumsal akt\u00f6rler bu raporlarla anl\u0131k olarak ilgilenirler. Bu g\u00fcn i\u00e7inden ge\u00e7ilen ko\u015fullara ola\u011fan demek zor. D\u00fcnyada\u00a0 yeni bir durgunluk s\u00fcreci ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmeler \u00e7o\u011funlukta. Bu ko\u015fullarda konsultasyon raporlar\u0131 yerli ve yabanc\u0131 akt\u00f6rlerin yo\u011fun ilgisini \u00e7eker. Yerli akt\u00f6rlerin beklentilerini bi\u00e7imlendirmelerinde rol oynar bu t\u00fcr raporlar. Yabanci akt\u00f6rlerin ise \u00fclke ekonomisine d\u00f6n\u00fck yarg\u0131lar\u0131, risk alg\u0131lamalar\u0131 ve pozisyon kararlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde \u00f6nemli etkileri olur\u00a0 konsultasyon raporlar\u0131n\u0131n.<\/p>\n<p>Bizde de b\u00f6yle olacak san\u0131r\u0131m. Halinden memnun olan h\u00fckumetin bu notla \u00e7ok fazla ilgilenece\u011fini sanm\u0131yorum. Enformasyon a\u00e7l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7inde olan\u00a0 akt\u00f6rlerin ise IMF notuna belli bir merakla yakla\u015facaklar\u0131n\u0131 ve i\u00e7eri\u011finden de etkileceklerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Raporun \u00fc\u00e7 par\u00e7al\u0131 oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. Bu par\u00e7alardan birisinde T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2001 sonras\u0131ndaki politika uygulamalar\u0131 ele al\u0131n\u0131yor ve bunun g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczdeki etkilerine vurgu yap\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu b\u00f6l\u00fcmdeki de\u011ferlendirmeler olduk\u00e7a nesnel ve pozitif. Bu \u00f6nemli. Zira, belirsizli\u011fin yo\u011fun oldu\u011fu bug\u00fcnk\u00fc ortamda ekonomiye d\u00f6n\u00fck iyi ve olumlu bir de\u011ferlendirme baz\u0131 sunuyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-675033864\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Raporun ikinci par\u00e7as\u0131nda, istatistik bilgiler \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, ekonominin son e\u011filimleri de\u011ferlendiriliyor ve 2012 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin say\u0131sal \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler yap\u0131l\u0131yor. Raporun esas beklenti bi\u00e7imlendirici par\u00e7as\u0131 bu. G\u00fcncel meraklar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan say\u0131sal \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerden \u00fc\u00e7 tanesinin \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Say\u0131sal de\u011ferlendirmelerden birisi\u00a0 2011 ve 2012 y\u0131llar\u0131na ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcleri. IMF eski tahminlerini de\u011fi\u015ftirmi\u015f. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in daha \u00f6nce y\u00fczde 6.6 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 7.5 olarak revize edilmi\u015f. 2012 i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan ilk tahminde y\u00fczde 2.2 olan b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 bu son raporda y\u00fczde 2.0&#8217;ye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin mevcut temposunun \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu ama 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00e7ok ciddi bir daralma ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor IMF.<\/p>\n<p>Say\u0131sal de\u011ferlendirmelerden ikincisi enflasyonla ilgili. IMF 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 enflasyon tahminini y\u00fczde 8.0&#8217;den y\u00fczde 9.5 d\u00fczeyine y\u00fckseltmi\u015f. T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de enflasyon h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n beklenenden\u00a0 daha y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor IMF.\u00a0 Dahas\u0131, 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 enflasyon tahminini de y\u00fczde 6.7 d\u00fczeyine y\u00fckseltilerek enflasyon hedefinden \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde sap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. IMF 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de enflasyonun y\u00fcksek olaca\u011f\u0131 kan\u0131s\u0131nda.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00f6nemli say\u0131sal de\u011ferlendirme de cari a\u00e7\u0131kla ilgili.IMF 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 10.2 olarak tahmin etti\u011fi cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 7.8&#8217;e gerileyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3914357164\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Raporun \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc par\u00e7as\u0131 ise 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in iktisat politikas\u0131 tavsiyelerine ayr\u0131lm\u0131\u015f. Raporda bu tavsiyeler\u00a0 &#8220;b\u00fcy\u00fcmede yumu\u015fak ini\u015f&#8221; sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in al\u0131nmas\u0131 gereken \u00f6nlemler olarak takdim ediliyor. IMF&#8217;nin temel politika \u00f6nerisi mali ve parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma. Uyar m\u0131 uymaz m\u0131 bilmem, ama bu konunun daha \u00e7ok konu\u015fulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 biliyorum.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IMF yine bizimle ilgili bir not yay\u0131nlad\u0131. Bizde IMF denince arkas\u0131ndan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ve s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 gelmesine al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla IMF T\u00fcrkiye konulu bir rapor yay\u0131nlad\u0131 s\u00f6z\u00fc dahi&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8675","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8675","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/22"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8675"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8675\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8675"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8675"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8675"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}