{"id":867,"date":"2011-06-04T13:54:38","date_gmt":"2011-06-04T10:54:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.net\/?p=867"},"modified":"2011-06-04T19:13:27","modified_gmt":"2011-06-04T16:13:27","slug":"merkezi-bekleyen-zor-donem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/merkezi-bekleyen-zor-donem\/","title":{"rendered":"Merkez&#8217;i Bekleyen Zor D\u00f6nem"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Enflasyon birka\u00e7 ay daha y\u00fcksek seyredebilir. Bu da Merkez \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131p uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 politikalar\u0131 sorgulatabilir<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2690062550\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (MB) fiyat istikrar\u0131ndan \u00e7ok finansal istikrara odaklanmas\u0131yla unuttu\u011fumuz enflasyonu cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc hat\u0131rlad\u0131k. May\u0131s ay\u0131 enflasyon rakamlar\u0131 \u00fczerine sayfalarca s\u00fcrecek analizler yap\u0131labilir. Ben k\u0131sa tutup 8 ba\u015fl\u0131kta toplamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>1) Enflasyonda art\u0131\u015f bekleniyordu, ama bu kadar de\u011fil. Enflasyon, piyasa profesyonelleri aras\u0131nda yap\u0131lan anketteki en k\u00f6t\u00fcmser tahminden bile bir puan daha k\u00f6t\u00fc geldi.<\/p>\n<p>2) Genel enflasyonun y\u00fczde 2.42 \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131nda en b\u00fcy\u00fck pay g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n. Toplam harcama sepetinde y\u00fczde 27 pay\u0131 olan g\u0131da, y\u00fczde 4.7 gibi \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek bir oranda artt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Merkez bile \u015fa\u015f\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r<\/p>\n<p>3) Ama bu duruma bak\u0131p enflasyon art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tamamen g\u0131daya ba\u011flamak, \u201csanki g\u0131da olmasayd\u0131 enflasyon artmayacakt\u0131\u201d sanmak do\u011fru de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>4) G\u0131day\u0131, enerjiyi, t\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fc, alkoll\u00fc i\u00e7ecekleri ve alt\u0131n\u0131 hari\u00e7 tutan \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 1.8 gibi y\u00fcksek bir oranda artarken, y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon ise y\u00fczde 4.42\u2019den 4.72\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. Yani rakamlara neresinden bakarsak bakal\u0131m, enflasyonun artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>5) Merkez Bankas\u0131 enflasyonun bu aylarda artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in piyasalar\u0131 ve halk\u0131 bu art\u0131\u015fa haz\u0131rlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Merkez Bankas\u0131 son Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (PPK) Raporu\u2019nda k\u0131sa vadede \u2018temel enflasyon g\u00f6stergelerinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fin\u2019 s\u00fcrece\u011fini tahmin etmi\u015fti. Nitekim bu oldu. Ama san\u0131yorum ki, Merkez Bankas\u0131 bile genel enflasyonda bu kadar sert bir art\u0131\u015f beklemiyordu. PPK raporunda TCMB may\u0131s ay\u0131nda enflasyonun y\u00fczde 5.5\u2019i a\u015fabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, akl\u0131ndan ge\u00e7enin y\u00fczde 7.2 oldu\u011funu sanm\u0131yorum.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-835298092\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Merkez faiz artt\u0131rmaz<\/p>\n<p>6) Buna ra\u011fmen Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yak\u0131n gelecekte, yani \u2018\u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7\u2019 PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz artt\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemiyorum. Bunu yaparsa \u00f6nceki s\u00f6ylemlerine ayk\u0131r\u0131 davranm\u0131\u015f olur. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc son d\u00f6nemde yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar bize g\u00f6sterdi ki, Merkez Bankas\u0131 ekonomide a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 bir \u0131s\u0131nma olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor, maliye taraf\u0131nda sorun g\u00f6rm\u00fcyor. O halde onun analizine g\u00f6re ortada faiz artt\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektiren bir durum yok.<\/p>\n<p>7) Enflasyon \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 ay daha y\u00fcksek seyredebilir. Bu da Merkez Bankas\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 artt\u0131racak, onun uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 politikalar\u0131n sorgulanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7acakt\u0131r. Nitekim may\u0131s verilerinin hemen ard\u0131ndan piyasada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz artt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7ekmek zorunda kalaca\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fulmaya ba\u015fland\u0131 bile. \u0130\u015fi zor, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc onu daha da zorlayacak ba\u015fka geli\u015fmeler olabilir. Mesela petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki birikimli art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda di\u011fer fiyatlara yans\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyen, bizzat Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kendisi. Se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 yap\u0131lacak zamlar da Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n i\u015fi zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n<p>May\u0131s rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m y\u00fczde 7-7.5 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki 2011 enflasyon tahminini h\u00e2l\u00e2 koruyorum.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-617591727\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>kaynak<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.finansgundem.com\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">http:\/\/www.finansgundem.com<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Enflasyon birka\u00e7 ay daha y\u00fcksek seyredebilir. Bu da Merkez \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131p uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 politikalar\u0131 sorgulatabilir Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (MB) fiyat istikrar\u0131ndan \u00e7ok finansal istikrara odaklanmas\u0131yla unuttu\u011fumuz&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":753,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-867","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/867","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=867"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/867\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/753"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=867"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=867"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=867"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}