{"id":8553,"date":"2011-12-06T15:37:10","date_gmt":"2011-12-06T12:37:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=8553"},"modified":"2011-12-06T15:37:18","modified_gmt":"2011-12-06T12:37:18","slug":"enflasyon-cift-haneye-dogru","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/enflasyon-cift-haneye-dogru\/","title":{"rendered":"Enflasyon \u00c7ift Haneye Do\u011fru"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 enflasyonu beklentilerin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<br \/>\nHer ne kadar Merkez Bankas\u0131 daha \u00f6nce piyasalar\u0131 uyar\u0131p onlar\u0131 b\u00f6yle bir sonuca haz\u0131rlad\u0131ysa da, gerek T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) gerekse \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE) art\u0131\u015f h\u0131zlar\u0131 ve geldi\u011fi d\u00fczeyler hi\u00e7 de i\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil.<br \/>\nG\u0131da, enerji, alt\u0131n ve t\u00fct\u00fcn \u00fcr\u00fcnlerini \u00e7\u0131kararak elde edilen ve uygulanan politikalar\u0131n sonucunu g\u00f6steren \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonda ise e\u011filim ge\u00e7en ekim ay\u0131ndan bu yana yukar\u0131ya y\u00f6nl\u00fc olarak s\u00fcregidiyor.<br \/>\nKas\u0131m ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 9.5 oran\u0131na ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f T\u00dcFE&#8217;nin, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda eksi 0.31 oran\u0131nda azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fczde, bu y\u0131l\u0131 \u00e7ift haneli fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla bitirmemiz art\u0131k ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3826107302\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>HEDEF\u0130N TUTMAMASININ NEDENLER\u0130<\/strong><br \/>\nPeki nas\u0131l oldu da y\u00fczde 5 \u015feklinde hedeflenen ve mart ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3.99 oran\u0131na inen 2011 enflasyonu iki kat artarak y\u00fczde 10&#8217;lara y\u00fckseldi?<br \/>\nKan\u0131mca bunun bir\u00e7ok nedeni var. S\u0131ralayal\u0131m.<br \/>\n\u25a0 Merkez Bankas\u0131 &#8220;enflasyon \u015fahini olma&#8221; niteli\u011fini yitirdi. De\u011fi\u015fik g\u00f6revlere soyundu. Fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ikinci planda kald\u0131.<br \/>\n\u25a0 TL&#8217;nin di\u011fer paralar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer yitirmesinin fiyatlara etkisi h\u00e2l\u00e2 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki gibi olmasa bile ge\u00e7irgenlik katsay\u0131s\u0131 y\u00fcksek. Kur etkisinin t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 3 puan civar\u0131nda art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 hesaplan\u0131yor.<br \/>\n\u25a0 \u0130\u00e7ki ve sigara gibi kamunun yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 zamlar da fiyatlar\u0131 direkt etkiliyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u25a0 \u0130\u00e7 talepteki canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n enflasyon \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131s\u0131 artm\u0131\u015f durumda. Her ne kadar Merkez Bankas\u0131 bu bask\u0131y\u0131 i\u015faretleyen &#8220;\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n&#8221; h\u00e2l\u00e2 ekside oldu\u011fu iddias\u0131n\u0131 yinelese de, bunun ge\u00e7erli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131n son d\u00f6nemlerdeki s\u00fcrekli art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan da izleniyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u25a0 \u00dcFE enflasyonunun bu y\u0131l\u0131n ortalar\u0131ndan itibaren y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 10 \u00fczerindeki art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131malar\u0131 yava\u015f yava\u015f ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<br \/>\n\u25a0 Enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczeyde gerilememesi ve buna bir de TL&#8217;nin de\u011fer kayb\u0131 eklenmesi fiyatlar\u0131 beklenenin de \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseltiyor.<br \/>\n\u25a0 \u0130thal fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n daha yumu\u015fak bir bi\u00e7imde s\u00fcrmesi, fiyatlar\u0131n daha da h\u0131zlanmas\u0131na m\u00e2ni oluyor.<br \/>\n\u25a0 G\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 ise tam bir joker. Kontrol\u00fc olanaks\u0131z. Havalar iyi gitse de art\u0131yor, gitmese de. Piyasa mekanizmas\u0131yla ilgileri yok. &#8220;Enflasyon art\u0131yor&#8221; denildi\u011finde bir bak\u0131yorsunuz, g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckseliveriyor.<br \/>\n\u25a0 Et fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n etkisinin bu aralarda n\u00f6tr oldu\u011funu da unutmayal\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2012 YILINDA ENFLASYON<\/strong><br \/>\nBu y\u0131l art\u0131k ge\u00e7ti. Gelecek y\u0131la bakal\u0131m.<br \/>\nBu a\u015famada 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00dcFE&#8217;nin hedeflenen y\u00fczde 5&#8217;lere inmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7 oldu\u011fu kan\u0131s\u0131nday\u0131m.<br \/>\nEnflasyonu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekecek fakt\u00f6rler olan TL&#8217;nin de\u011ferlenmesi, ithal fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ucuzlamas\u0131, k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemli fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekleyi\u015flerinin azalmas\u0131, d\u00fcnya ekonomik durumunun d\u00fczelmesi, T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;ye d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan kaynak ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 ya da g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n iyi hava \u015fartlar\u0131 nedeniyle d\u00fc\u015fmesi gibi fakt\u00f6rlerin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesinin zor oldu\u011fu bir d\u00f6nem beklemekteyim.<br \/>\nTek olumlu etki, i\u00e7 talebin s\u00fcratle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcp, yabanc\u0131 kurulu\u015flar\u0131n raporlar\u0131nda \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fckleri gibi 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n 0.5 ile 2 aras\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesiyle ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Buna da ben pek olas\u0131l\u0131k tan\u0131m\u0131yorum.<br \/>\n\u00d6zetle enflasyonda y\u00fczde 10&#8217;luk d\u00fczey bir s\u00fcre daha devam edecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 enflasyonu beklentilerin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Her ne kadar Merkez Bankas\u0131 daha \u00f6nce piyasalar\u0131 uyar\u0131p onlar\u0131 b\u00f6yle bir sonuca haz\u0131rlad\u0131ysa da, gerek T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":418,"featured_media":5395,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8553","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8553","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/418"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8553"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8553\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5395"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8553"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8553"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8553"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}