{"id":8527,"date":"2011-12-06T10:14:23","date_gmt":"2011-12-06T07:14:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=8527"},"modified":"2011-12-06T10:14:34","modified_gmt":"2011-12-06T07:14:34","slug":"aylardir-yazmadigimiz-konu-enflasyon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/aylardir-yazmadigimiz-konu-enflasyon\/","title":{"rendered":"Aylard\u0131r Yazmad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z Konu: Enflasyon"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 enflasyon rakamlar\u0131 d\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE rakam\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131f\u0131r olmamas\u0131 halinde 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131, &#8220;Psikolojik e\u015fik&#8221; olan \u00e7ift haneli rakam\u0131 g\u00f6recek. Aral\u0131k&#8217;ta y\u00fczde y\u00fczde 1&#8217;lik T\u00fcfe y\u0131l\u0131k enflasyonu y\u00fczde 10.9&#8242;, Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 gibi y\u00fczde 1.73&#8217;l\u0131k art\u0131\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun y\u00fczde 11.7 o5lmas\u0131 sonucunu getirecek. Bu 2012 enflasyonu i\u00e7in &#8220;tutmaz&#8221; diyen karamsar, &#8220;tutar&#8221; diyen iyimser yorumlarla ayr\u0131\u015fmaya neden oluyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1606697092\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bir d\u00f6nem ad\u0131na &#8220;Canavar&#8221; s\u0131fat\u0131n\u0131 koydu\u011fumuz ve her ay tekrar tekrar kaleme ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z enflasyon konusunu son d\u00f6nemdeki geli\u015fmeler nedeniyle gazetemizde haber olarak yay\u0131nlarken, \u00fczerine yorum yapmay\u0131 bir kenara b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 enflasyon rakamlar\u0131 ayl\u0131k \u00dcFE 0.65, T\u00dcFE 1.73 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015firken \u00dcFE&#8217;de y\u0131ll\u0131k 13.67, T\u00dcFE&#8217;de 9.48 ula\u015ft\u0131. 11 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde y\u00fczde 9.82 olan T\u00fcfe&#8217;ye eksi binde3&#8217;l\u00fck ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u00a0 Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 rakam\u0131n\u0131 ekledi\u011fimizde 12 ayda 9.82 rakam\u0131n\u0131 elde ediyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Bu nedenle Aral\u0131k 2011 enflasyonunda T\u00fcfe&#8217;nin art\u0131\u015f olmamas\u0131 t\u00fcketici enflasyonunun 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 t\u00fcketici enflasyonunun y\u00fczde 9,82 olmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelecektir. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 T\u00fcfe rakam\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 1 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi 2011 enflasyonun y\u00fczde 10.9 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi, Kas\u0131m&#8217;daki gibi 1.73 oran\u0131nda artmas\u0131 ise 2011 T\u00dcFE rakam\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 11.7&#8217;ya y\u00fckselmesini beraberinde getirecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu da Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda T\u00fcfe&#8217;nin s\u0131f\u0131r olmamas\u0131 halinde enflasyonda &#8220;Psikolojik e\u015fik&#8221; \u00e7ift haneli rakam g\u00fcndeme gelecektir. Bunun ise faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 zorlarken, birbirini etkileyen faiz-enflasyon sarmal\u0131na sebep olaca\u011f\u0131 korkusunu beraberinde getirmektedir. Geli\u015fmeleri olumsuz de\u011ferlendirenler bunun gelecek y\u0131l\u0131n y\u00fczde 5.2&#8217;lik Orta Vadeli Program hedefinin de tutturulamayaca\u011f\u0131 sonucuna varmalar\u0131n\u0131 beraberinde getirmektedir.<\/p>\n<p>Oysa Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdem Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131, bir s\u00fcre \u00f6nce yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada Kas\u0131m ve Aral\u0131k&#8217;ta enflasyonun artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve H\u00fck\u00fcmete hedef tutturamad\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in mektup yazmak zorunda kalacaklar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015f. Enflasyon art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n nedenlerini a\u00e7\u0131klayarak, 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda konunun dengelenece\u011fini ve 2012 hedefini tutturacaklar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan enflasyon rakamlar\u0131ndan sonra, i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n temsilcileri de yapt\u0131klar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda, art\u0131\u015ftan tedirginlik duymad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131, k\u00fcresel olumsuzluklar nedeni ve d\u00f6viz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan sonucun, yeni y\u0131lda ortadan kalkaca\u011f\u0131na inand\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fcler.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi ortada 2012 i\u00e7in iki tahmin s\u00f6z konusu. Biri karamsar ve enflasyon art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 2012&#8217;de de s\u00fcrece\u011fi \u015feklinde. Di\u011feri iyimser bu y\u0131l tutturulamayan hedefin gelecek y\u0131l tutturulabilece\u011fi yolunda\u2026<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-420882861\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130\u015fte bu geli\u015fmeler bize enflasyon yaz\u0131s\u0131 yazd\u0131rd\u0131. \u0130ste\u011fimiz, 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda geli\u015fmelerin olumlu olmas\u0131 enflasyonun &#8220;psikolojik e\u015fik&#8221; \u00e7ift haneden geri d\u00f6nmesi Merkez Bankas\u0131 ve iyimserlerin tahminlerine uygun e\u015fikte kalmas\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 enflasyon rakamlar\u0131 d\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE rakam\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131f\u0131r olmamas\u0131 halinde 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131, &#8220;Psikolojik e\u015fik&#8221; olan \u00e7ift haneli rakam\u0131 g\u00f6recek. Aral\u0131k&#8217;ta&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":903,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8527","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8527","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/22"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8527"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8527\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/903"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8527"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8527"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8527"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}