{"id":8463,"date":"2011-12-05T10:47:47","date_gmt":"2011-12-05T07:47:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=8463"},"modified":"2011-12-05T11:10:29","modified_gmt":"2011-12-05T08:10:29","slug":"liderler-zirvesi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/liderler-zirvesi\/","title":{"rendered":"AB Liderler Zirvesi???"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Merkel: \u201cY\u0131llar S\u00fcrecek\u201d<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-261308834\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Almanya Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Angela Merkel, Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n finansal krizine kolay \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcn &#8221;y\u0131llar alaca\u011f\u0131&#8221; uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.\u00a0Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n (ECB) g\u00fcveni s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi i\u00e7in ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi tavr\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc vurgulayan Merkel, eurobondlar\u0131n Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n bor\u00e7 krizine \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.<\/p>\n<p><strong>EFSF B\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc Art\u0131r\u0131lacak<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Hafta i\u00e7inde Br\u00fcksel&#8217;de biraraya gelen Euro B\u00f6lgesi Maliye Bakanlar\u0131, Avrupa Finansal \u0130stikrar Fonunun (EFSF) b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 konusunda fikir birli\u011fine vard\u0131, ancak miktar\u0131n ne kadar art\u0131r\u0131labilece\u011fine ili\u015fkin bilgi verilmedi. Toplant\u0131da, bor\u00e7 krizinin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131ndan IMF&#8217;den daha fazla yararlan\u0131lmas\u0131 g\u00fcndeme geldi.<\/p>\n<p>Bakanlar, fon sorunlar\u0131 bulunan \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 20-30 yeni tahvil ihrac\u0131n\u0131 garanti edecek ve yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00fclke tahvillerini sat\u0131n almaya y\u00f6neltecek ortak yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131 olu\u015fturulmas\u0131n\u0131 ama\u00e7layan ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 plan \u00fczerinde uzla\u015fmaya vard\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Olli Rehn: Kritik 10 G\u00fcn<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>AB Komisyonu&#8217;nun ekonomik ve parasal i\u015flerden sorumlu Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Olli Rehn, &#8221;Biz \u015fimdi, AB&#8217;nin krize kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesini tamamlamas\u0131 ve sonu\u00e7land\u0131rmas\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir s\u00fcrece giriyoruz. Bizi bu krizden \u00e7\u0131karacak tek bir sihirli \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcm\u00fcz yok&#8221; diye konu\u015ftu. \u0130ki cephede \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmaya ihtiya\u00e7 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret eden Rehn, bunlardan birinin Euro B\u00f6lgesi&#8217;nin, piyasadaki kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kontrol etmek i\u00e7in yeteri kadar g\u00fcvenilir g\u00fcvenlik duvarlar\u0131na sahip olmas\u0131n\u0131 garanti etmek, di\u011ferinin ise ekonomik y\u00f6netimi daha fazla g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n<p>Almanya Maliye Bakan\u0131 Wolfgang Schaeuble, Euro B\u00f6lgesi&#8217;ne \u00fcye \u00fclkelerin, derin bir mali entegrasyon sa\u011flamak \u00fczere yeni \u0130stikrar Pakt\u0131 kurabilece\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1797107102\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Fransa B\u00fct\u00e7e Bakan\u0131 Valerie Pecresse, euro B\u00f6lgesi&#8217;nde s\u00fcregelen bor\u00e7 krizine kar\u015f\u0131 Fransa ve Almanya h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerinin daha fazla disiplin ve dayan\u0131\u015fma istedi\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n<p>Avrupa Birli\u011fi&#8217;ne \u00fcye \u00fclkelerin &#8221;s\u0131f\u0131r b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131&#8221; kural\u0131na uymalar\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulunan Pecresse, Euro B\u00f6lgesi y\u00f6neti\u015fiminin de\u011fi\u015ftirilmesi, daha fazla entegre olmu\u015f mali konsolidasyona do\u011fru ilerlenmesi gerekece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n<p><strong>ECB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Mario Draghi,<\/strong> &#8221;Avrupa ekonomisinin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131&#8221; uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n<p>Draghi, siyasi liderlerin gelecek hafta AB liderler zirvesinde Avro B\u00f6lgesi \u00fcyesi 17 \u00fclkede daha s\u0131k\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7e kontrol\u00fc konusunda anla\u015fmas\u0131 halinde Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n bor\u00e7 krizinin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131nda daha \u00f6nemli rol oynamaya haz\u0131r oldu\u011funun i\u015faretini verdi.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-688174182\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&#8221;Yeni mali s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma piyasalar\u0131n istikrar\u0131nda yeterli olur mu ve g\u00fcvenilir uzun vadeli \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc k\u0131sa vadede nas\u0131l yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur gibi sorularla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabiliriz. Buna yan\u0131t\u0131m\u0131z, kesinlikle en \u00f6nemli unsur g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fi yeniden sa\u011flamaya ba\u015flamak olacakt\u0131r&#8221; diyen Draghi, ECB&#8217;nin Avrupa Birli\u011fi anla\u015fmas\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda hareket etmeyi inceledi\u011fini ve en \u00f6nemli konunun hareketsiz kredi kanallar\u0131n\u0131n tekrar \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">***<\/p>\n<p><strong>YORUM ve ANAL\u0130Z<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>G\u00f6r\u00fcnen o ki 9 Aral\u0131k AB liderler zirvesi sonras\u0131nda al\u0131nacak kararlar \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli olacakt\u0131r. Fakat bu toplant\u0131dan bir karar \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini zannetmiyorum. Almanya ille de mali disiplin diyor. Bu sayede di\u011fer bor\u00e7lu \u00fclkelerin boyunduru\u011fu Almanya\u2019n\u0131n eline ge\u00e7ecek. \u201cBunca y\u0131l yan gelip yatm\u0131\u015fs\u0131n\u0131z, \u015fimdi tasarruf zaman\u0131 ve sizi ben hizaya getirece\u011fim\u201d anlam\u0131na gelecek bir yakla\u015f\u0131m sergileyen Almanya\u2019n\u0131n AB s\u00f6zle\u015fmesini arzu etti\u011fi \u015fekilde de\u011fi\u015ftirebilmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcyorum. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc 17 \u00fclkenin hepsinin Almanya\u2019n\u0131n isteklerine kolayca boyun e\u011ferek, kendi iplerini Almanya\u2019n\u0131n eline vereceklerini zannetmiyorum. Hatta, 9 Aral\u0131k toplant\u0131s\u0131nda \u00e7ok ciddi tart\u0131\u015fmalar olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, teknokrat bir ba\u015fbakan olan \u0130talya ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Monti\u2019nin bile sabr\u0131n\u0131n ta\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 zannediyorum.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eu ana kadar yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n hepsi de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde Fransa Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n (AMB) devreye girmesini ve tahvil al\u0131m program\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletmesini istiyor. AMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Draghi\u2019nin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 da s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 belirgin bir \u015fekilde yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>AB s\u00f6zle\u015fmesine g\u00f6re, AMB bir kurum ya da devleti kurtarmak i\u00e7in ba\u015fvurulacak son merci de\u011fil. Yani AB s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi AMB\u2019n\u0131n FED gibi istenildi\u011fi kadar kaynak sa\u011flayacak ve kurtarma yapacak bir birim olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. \u0130\u015fte bu nedenle ge\u00e7en hafta \u00f6nemli bir ba\u015fka form\u00fcl daha g\u00fcndeme al\u0131nd\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Bu form\u00fcle g\u00f6re AMB, IMF\u2019ye bor\u00e7 verecek ve IMF de bu para ile zordurumda olan \u0130talya ve \u0130spanya gibi \u00fclkelere kredi a\u00e7acak. Yani AB s\u00f6zle\u015fmesini delme yollar\u0131 konu\u015fuluyor ki, buna Almanya\u2019n\u0131n tavr\u0131n\u0131n ne olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hen\u00fcz bilmiyoruz. Sonu\u00e7 yine geliyor enflasyonda d\u00fc\u011f\u00fcmleniyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ster AMB direkt olarak \u00fclkelerin tahvilini als\u0131n, isterse IMF\u2019ye kredi a\u00e7arak dolayl\u0131 y\u00f6nden yard\u0131m sa\u011flas\u0131n, her iki durumda da kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z olarak para bas\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ve piyasaya s\u00fcr\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f olacakt\u0131r. Bunun sonucunda da, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme ray\u0131na girebilir ve ekonomiler nefes al\u0131r, korkular azal\u0131r. Fakat sonu enflasyon olur ki, bunu da Almanya asla onaylam\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Kan\u0131mca \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm yollar\u0131 konusunda anla\u015fma sa\u011flanmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ozr g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. 9 Aral\u0131k tarihi Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fcne denk geliyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bizler AB lideleri toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 en erken Cuma gecesi ya da Cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6\u011frenmi\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131z. 10-11 Aral\u0131k tarihlerinde toplant\u0131n\u0131n ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 bas\u0131na yans\u0131m\u0131\u015f olacak ve 12 Aral\u0131k Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fcne gelindi\u011finde piyasalar \u00fczerinde olduk\u00e7a \u00f6nemli etkiler yaratacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu durumda \u015fu olas\u0131l\u0131klara bakmal\u0131y\u0131z. 12 Aral\u0131k \u00f6ncesinde AB liderleri;<\/p>\n<p>1. Her konuda anla\u015fm\u0131\u015f ve AB s\u00f6zle\u015fmesini de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyi kabul etmi\u015f olacaklard\u0131r. (y\u00fczde 5-10)<\/p>\n<p>2. \u00c7ok zorlu ve \u00e7etin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler sonras\u0131nda AB s\u00f6zle\u015fmesini de\u011fi\u015ftirme plan\u0131 en az bir \u00fclke taraf\u0131ndan kabul edilmeyebilir ama sonu\u00e7ta ilke kararlar\u0131 al\u0131n\u0131r ve zaman kazan\u0131lmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131r. Piyasalar\u0131 bozmamak i\u00e7in anla\u015fma olmu\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fc sunulur ve herkes mutlu resim verir. (y\u00fczde 70-80)<\/p>\n<p>3. AB liderleri her konuda anla\u015famad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klarlar ama en k\u0131sa zamanda, anla\u015fma sa\u011flanamayan noktalarda yeniden acil toplant\u0131 yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 duyurulur. (y\u00fczde 10-25)<\/p>\n<p>Bu se\u00e7eneklerden birincisi hari\u00e7 di\u011ferleri piyasalar\u0131 tatmin etmez.<\/p>\n<p>Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu hafta ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren borsalarda ge\u00e7en haftaki co\u015fkunun azalmas\u0131 ve sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 gerekir. Fakat bunu da engelleyebilecek bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 var. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc 8 Aral\u0131k\u2019ta Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz toplant\u0131s\u0131 var ve Draghi faizleri indirebilir. Bu beklenti nedeniyle Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fcne kadar borsalar fazla bozulmayabilir. Fakat en kritik olay 9 Aral\u0131k\u2019taki AB liderleri zirvesidir.<\/p>\n<p>Haftaya ba\u015flarken bir miktar k\u00e2r realizasyonu ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabiliriz. Sonras\u0131nda borsalarda tekrar yukar\u0131 hareket olabilir ama hafta sonuna do\u011fru AB liderlerininalaca\u011f\u0131 kararlar\u0131n riskini almak istemeyenler sat\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7ebilirler.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Merkel: \u201cY\u0131llar S\u00fcrecek\u201d Almanya Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Angela Merkel, Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n finansal krizine kolay \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcn &#8221;y\u0131llar alaca\u011f\u0131&#8221; uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.\u00a0Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n (ECB) g\u00fcveni s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi i\u00e7in&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":6025,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8463","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8463","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8463"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8463\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6025"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8463"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8463"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8463"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}