{"id":8352,"date":"2011-12-01T10:12:49","date_gmt":"2011-12-01T07:12:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=8352"},"modified":"2011-12-01T10:13:08","modified_gmt":"2011-12-01T07:13:08","slug":"o-ne-ralliydi-oyle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/o-ne-ralliydi-oyle\/","title":{"rendered":"O Ne Ralliydi \u00d6yle?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn piyasalar\u0131 yine Merkez Bankalar\u0131 ipten ald\u0131. Yine Fed\u2019in \u201c\u015fapkadaki tav\u015fan \u00fcretme \u00e7iftli\u011finden\u201d\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>yeni<\/strong><\/span>\/yine bir tav\u015fan \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131! Fed ile geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke merkez bankalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki swap (para de\u011fi\u015fimi) anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n maliyetleri OIS+100 baz puandan, OIS+50 baz puana indirildi. Asl\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131kan tav\u015fan minikti. Zira swap anla\u015fmas\u0131 zaten devam etmekte olan bir anla\u015fmayd\u0131. De\u011fi\u015fen tek \u015fey \u201cmaliyet\u201d idi.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1971250331\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n tercihi yine \u2018top \u00e7evirme\u2019 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi. Sorunu yine likidite vererek ileriye \u00f6telemeyi tercih ettiler. Temel sorunlar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zecek bir ad\u0131m de\u011fildi tabii ki bu ad\u0131m. Olsun, piyasalar i\u00e7in bunun \u00e7ok da b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00f6nemi yoktu! Zira Kas\u0131m ay\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>son<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcyd\u00fc d\u00fcn. Bir\u00e7ok hedge fonun ve yat\u0131r\u0131m bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u201cy\u0131l sonu\u201d kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131 d\u00fcnd\u00fc. Fon y\u00f6neticileri \u201cbonuslar\u0131\u201d i\u00e7in d\u00fcnk\u00fc kapan\u0131\u015flar\u0131n iyi olmas\u0131n\u0131 tercih ettiler! Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta ya\u015fanan sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri geri almak i\u00e7in merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n \u201cortak m\u00fcdahalesini\u201d kulland\u0131lar. B\u00f6yle olabilece\u011fine (\u015fu veya bu sebepten) Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc \u201cKas\u0131m Rallisi i\u00e7in son \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcn&#8230;\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 yaz\u0131mda \u201c\u0130MKB 100\u2019de 51.745\u2019in a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda 53.650 seviyelerine kadar s\u00fcrecek bir hareket g\u00f6rebiliriz\u201d diyerek b\u00f6ylesi bir hareket olaca\u011f\u0131na de\u011finmi\u015ftim.<\/p>\n<p>Yap\u0131lan i\u015fe yarayacak m\u0131? Avrupa\u2019daki sorunlu \u00fclkelerin bor\u00e7lanma faizlerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 indirebilecek bir ad\u0131m olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan i\u015fe yaramas\u0131 \u00e7ok zor. Di\u011fer yandan sorunu merkez bankalar\u0131 eliyle ileriye \u00f6telemek, y\u00fcksek faizden bor\u00e7lanan sorunlu \u00fclkelerin sorunlar\u0131 daha da b\u00fcy\u00fctmekten \u00f6te bir i\u015fe yaram\u0131yor. Zira gitgide artan faizler uzun vadede\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>bu<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0\u00fclkelerin bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n katlanarak artmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Ancak bu durum k\u0131sa vadede piyasalar\u0131 pek ilgilendirmiyor! Onlar gelen paran\u0131n piyasada yarataca\u011f\u0131 rahatlamaya bak\u0131yorlar.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 azaltmas\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0131l\u0131man havay\u0131 destekleyen bir ba\u015fka olumlu haber TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdem Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131\u2019dan geldi. \u201cFaiz koridorunun yukar\u0131ya geni\u015fletilmesine ihtiya\u00e7 g\u00f6rm\u00fcyoruz\u201d s\u00f6ylemi k\u0131sa vadeli bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bizim piyasalar\u0131m\u0131zdaki gerilimi azaltt\u0131. T\u00fcm bu haberler dolar\/TL kurlar\u0131n\u0131 1.8250\u2019lere kadar indirdi. Paritenin de 1.3310\u2019lardan 1.3530\u2019lara \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n da pay\u0131 vard\u0131 bu harekette. Bono bile\u015fiklerini de unutmamak gerek. G\u00f6sterge bono bile\u015fik faizleri y\u00fczde 10.75\u2019in alt\u0131na inerek, 10,39\u2019dan kapand\u0131. Hesap d\u00f6nemi kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in olabilecek en \u201cideal\u201d seviyeler&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>G\u00fcn sonunda en\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>\u00e7ok<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0sorulan soru; \u2018Toparlanma devam edecek mi?\u2019 idi. 53.650\u2019nin \u00fczerine ge\u00e7ip 54.517\u2019den kapatan ve y\u00fczde 4.66 y\u00fckselen \u0130MKB\u2019nin bug\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 55.250 seviyelerine kadar \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ihtimali var. Bu seviyenin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda teknik olarak 56.500-800 band\u0131na kadar bir y\u00fckseli\u015f ihtimali var! Ancak bu olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n her ikisinin de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. D\u00fcn ya\u015fanan; sadece T\u00fcrkiye \u2019de de\u011fil; ciddi bir abart\u0131 idi. Bir \u00e7ok seviye h\u0131zl\u0131 ve de i\u015flemsiz ge\u00e7ildi.<\/p>\n<p>Bu hareketin devam edebilmesi ancak d\u00fcn ya\u015fanan rallinin Noel Baba (y\u0131l sonu) Rallisi\u2019ne ba\u011flanabilmesi ile m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Ancak bu biraz zor! Zira \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki koskoca bir Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 var ve bu ay \u00e7ok \u015feye gebe.<\/p>\n<p>Dikkatli olmakta fayda var!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn piyasalar\u0131 yine Merkez Bankalar\u0131 ipten ald\u0131. Yine Fed\u2019in \u201c\u015fapkadaki tav\u015fan \u00fcretme \u00e7iftli\u011finden\u201d\u00a0yeni\/yine bir tav\u015fan \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131! Fed ile geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke merkez bankalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki swap (para&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":910,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8352","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8352","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8352"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8352\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8352"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8352"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8352"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}