{"id":8348,"date":"2011-12-01T10:11:54","date_gmt":"2011-12-01T07:11:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=8348"},"modified":"2011-12-01T10:12:04","modified_gmt":"2011-12-01T07:12:04","slug":"dis-acik-ve-enerji-ithalati","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/dis-acik-ve-enerji-ithalati\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u0131\u015f A\u00e7\u0131k ve Enerji \u0130thalat\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ekonomide kriz bekleyi\u015finin iyice yayg\u0131nla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bana y\u00f6nelen sorulardan izliyorum. \u015eu s\u0131ralarda kimi g\u00f6rsem gelen krizin ciddiyeti hakk\u0131nda beni yokluyor. Biraz de\u015fince insanlar\u0131n baya\u011f\u0131 karamsar oldu\u011fu ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-813893808\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130lgin\u00e7 \u015fekilde, vatanda\u015f\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n analizi ile \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Her zaman b\u00f6yle olmaz. \u0130kisi de ekonominin temel k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k nedenini her ay\u00a0yeni\u00a0rekorlar k\u0131ran d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131kta g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek \u00f6demeler bilan\u00e7osunun yay\u0131nlanmas\u0131ndan sonra ben de d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 pertavs\u0131z alt\u0131na ald\u0131m. Yap\u0131sal de\u011fi\u015fimin i\u00e7erdi\u011fi ana e\u011filimleri saptamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Do\u011fal olarak iktisat politikas\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karsamalar\u0131 ile ilgileniyorum.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6zellikle d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131kla TL\u2019nin de\u011feri aras\u0131ndaki ba\u011flant\u0131y\u0131 kurmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yorum. Daha a\u00e7\u0131k s\u00f6yleyeyim. S\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k i\u00e7in gerekli d\u00f6viz kurunu kestirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yorum. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00fczey yeterli mi? Yoksa TL\u2019nin daha fazla de\u011fer kaybetmesi mi gerekiyor?<\/p>\n<p><strong>Basiretim ba\u011flanm\u0131\u015f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>OECD\u2019nin T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in 2012 tahminleri medyaya yans\u0131d\u0131. Kamuoyu daha\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a>\u00e7ok\u00a0b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 3\u2019e indirilmesine odakland\u0131. Ayr\u0131nt\u0131lara girilmedi. Ama raporu haz\u0131rlayan Rauf G\u00f6nen\u00e7 beni uyard\u0131. D\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k grafi\u011fine dikkatimi \u00e7ekti. M\u00fcte\u015fekkirim.<\/p>\n<p>Ne g\u00f6reyim? D\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n hayati bir ayr\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 atlam\u0131\u015f\u0131m. D\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa\u00a0ve\u00a0enerji-hari\u00e7 d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa bakarken enerji a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na izlememi\u015fim. Basiretim ba\u011flanm\u0131\u015f. Kritik bir geli\u015fmeyi b\u00f6ylece ka\u00e7\u0131rm\u0131\u015f\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>Hemen excel dosyalar\u0131ma ge\u00e7tim. Veriler zaten vard\u0131. Basit bir \u00e7\u0131kartma i\u015flemi ard\u0131ndan grafi\u011fi \u00e7iziverdim. Enerji k\u00f6kenli d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k ile enerji-hari\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n zaman i\u00e7inde de\u011fi\u015fimi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrl\u00fck kazand\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3925252759\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m \u00e7ok say\u0131da grafikten birini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya koydum. Kolay izlenmesi i\u00e7in 2005\u2019ten ba\u015flat\u0131yorum. 2011\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fine kadar geliyor. Say\u0131lar y\u0131ll\u0131k ve milli gelirin y\u00fczde oran\u0131. Alt \u00e7izgi enerji a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u00fcst \u00e7izgi enerji-hari\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Kritik bir e\u011filim<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Enerji a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 istikrarl\u0131 seyrediyor. 2005 ba\u015f\u0131nda milli gelirin y\u00fczde 3,4\u2019\u00fcnden k\u00fcresel kriz \u00f6ncesinde y\u00fczde 5,5\u2019a y\u00fckseliyor. Krizde y\u00fczde 4,1\u2019e iniyor. Sonra tekrar zirveyi yakal\u0131yor. D\u00f6nem sonunda enerjinin d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131na katk\u0131s\u0131 2 puanda kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Ya enerji-hari\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131k? 2005 ba\u015f\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0,3 iken kriz \u00f6ncesinde y\u00fczde 1,5\u2019a y\u00fckseliyor. Krizde enerji-hari\u00e7 denge y\u00fczde 2 fazla veriyor. Sonra a\u00e7\u0131k patl\u0131yor; y\u00fczde 4,1\u2019e t\u0131rman\u0131yor. Yani d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131na 3,8 puan katk\u0131 yap\u0131yor. Enerjinin iki kat\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3614351824\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Analizi ge\u00e7mi\u015fe uzat\u0131nca e\u011filim daha da vahimle\u015fiyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin 1998-2002 aras\u0131nda enerji-hari\u00e7 denge y\u00fczde 2,4 fazla, enerji ise y\u00fczde 3 a\u00e7\u0131k veriyor. 2011\u2019le kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131nca, uzun d\u00f6nemde enerji-hari\u00e7 dengede bozulma 6,1 puana s\u0131\u00e7r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Bence d\u00f6viz kuru a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan resim \u00e7ok nettir. Enerji ithalat\u0131 kura duyars\u0131zd\u0131r. Ve d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131na etkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r. Enerji-hari\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131k kura duyarl\u0131d\u0131r. Ve patlayan odur. Yani k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n esas nedenidir. Buraya bir mim koyun derim.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ekonomide kriz bekleyi\u015finin iyice yayg\u0131nla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bana y\u00f6nelen sorulardan izliyorum. \u015eu s\u0131ralarda kimi g\u00f6rsem gelen krizin ciddiyeti hakk\u0131nda beni yokluyor. Biraz de\u015fince insanlar\u0131n baya\u011f\u0131 karamsar oldu\u011fu&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8348","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8348","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8348"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8348\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8348"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8348"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8348"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}