{"id":8180,"date":"2011-11-26T11:22:51","date_gmt":"2011-11-26T08:22:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=8180"},"modified":"2011-11-26T11:22:51","modified_gmt":"2011-11-26T08:22:51","slug":"turk-bankalarinin-karliligi-dusuyor-mu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/turk-bankalarinin-karliligi-dusuyor-mu\/","title":{"rendered":"T\u00fcrk Bankalar\u0131n\u0131n K\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor mu?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>2011\u2019in 3. \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nemi finansal sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayan T\u00fcrk bankalar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu net karlar, genel itibari ile piyasay\u0131 tatmin etmedi. \u0130stisnalar hari\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131klanan karlar beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, \u00e7eyrek bazda ve y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda net karlar\u0131n genel itibari ile azal\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi g\u00f6zlendi.\u00a0 BDDK verilerine g\u00f6re sekt\u00f6r ve mevduat bankalar\u0131n\u0131n 9 ayl\u0131k net kar\u0131 ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131la g\u00f6re s\u0131ras\u0131yla %13,2 ve %14,2 azal\u0131rken, 2011 d\u00f6neminde ise ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re s\u0131ras\u0131yla %9,3 ve %9,9 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-230847856\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130MKB\u2019de i\u015flem g\u00f6ren 6 b\u00fcy\u00fck bankan\u0131n (ISCTR, GARAN, AKBNK, YKBNK, HALKB, VAKBN) 2011 d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu karlar incelendi\u011finde, genel itibari ile \u00e7eyreksel anlamda banka karlar\u0131n\u0131n tatmin etmedi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. 6 bankan\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu net karlar, ortalama olarak ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re ortalama %5 azal\u0131\u015f kaydetti. Bankalar\u0131n 12 ayl\u0131k \u00f6zkaynak getirilerindeki azal\u0131\u015f trendinin, Vak\u0131fbank haricinde devam etti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. 2010 d\u00f6neminde Halkbank hari\u00e7 %19-%24,3 aras\u0131nda olu\u015fan \u00f6zkaynak getirileri, bir y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00f6nemde \u00e7eyreksel bazda azal\u0131\u015f e\u011filimi ile birlikte, Halkbank hari\u00e7, %14-%17,5 aras\u0131na geriledi. Tera Menkul De\u011ferler Banka analisti Hasan Demir, 3 \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nemi sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na ili\u015fkin yapm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu de\u011ferlendirmede, kamu bankalar\u0131n\u0131n beklentilerden iyi gelen faiz, \u00fccret gelirleri ve di\u011fer gelirleri nedeniyle beklenti \u00fczerinde kar a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade ederken, \u00f6zel bankalar\u0131n ise t\u00fcrev i\u015flem zararlar\u0131 ve artan kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar nedeni ile beklentilerin alt\u0131nda sonu\u00e7lar a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Goldman Sachs 3. \u00e7eyrek sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 ard\u0131ndan yay\u0131nlam\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu raporda cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa, enflasyonist e\u011filime ve TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kayb\u0131na y\u00f6nelik Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n eylemlerinin devam etti\u011fini belirtirken, bankan\u0131n bu amaca y\u00f6nelik TL likiditesi y\u00f6netimine odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrk bankalar\u0131n, fonlama maliyetlerine y\u00f6nelik \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilirli\u011fini azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Ayr\u0131ca raporda, TL cinsinden fonlama maliyetlerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck menkul k\u0131ymet getirisinin 3. \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6neminde net faiz marjlar\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 vurgulan\u0131rken, takipteki kredilerdeki d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn, finansallara olan katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen yava\u015flaman\u0131n kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda ciddi oranda yava\u015flama g\u00f6sterece\u011finin habercisi oldu\u011fu ifade edildi.<\/p>\n<p>BBDK verilerine g\u00f6re, 3. \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6neminde sekt\u00f6rde br\u00fct kredilerin bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re %6,2 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Kredi t\u00fcrleri incelendi\u011finde, kredi kart\u0131 dahil t\u00fcketici kredilerindeki art\u0131\u015f %4,9 olurken, i\u015fletme kredileri bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe k\u0131yasla %6,8 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Sekt\u00f6r mevduat taban\u0131 ise 3. \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6neminde %3,7 oran\u0131nda geni\u015fledi. Mevduat pazar\u0131ndaki rekabet ve fon maliyetindeki dalgalanma, bankalar\u0131n mevduat d\u0131\u015f\u0131 fonlamalar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n bu d\u00f6nemde de devam etmesine neden oldu. Repo yoluyla ve tahvil ihrac\u0131 yoluyla fonlama, bu d\u00f6nemde \u00e7eyreksel bazda %10,2 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. 6 b\u00fcy\u00fck banka aras\u0131nda ISCTR br\u00fct kredilerini bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re %10,9 art\u0131rarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken d\u00f6viz cinsinden kredilerdeki %18 art\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki temel unsur oldu. \u0130ncelenen banka grubu aras\u0131nda br\u00fct kredileri en az artan \u00e7eyreksel bazda %3,8 art\u0131\u015f ile Vak\u0131fbank oldu. Aktif yap\u0131s\u0131 incelendi\u011finde, kredi \/ mevduat oran\u0131 bak\u0131m\u0131ndan en y\u00fcksek oranl\u0131 banka, 3. \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nemindeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc mevduat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 nedeniyle\u00a0 %114\u2019ten %108\u2019e gerilemesine ra\u011fmen Yap\u0131kredi Bankas\u0131 olurken, oran\u0131n %100\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde oldu\u011fu bankalar, Yap\u0131 Kredi Bankas\u0131, Vak\u0131fbank ve Garanti oldu. Aktif bile\u015fiminde Garanti, Halkbank ve Vak\u0131fbank\u2019\u0131n menkul k\u0131ymet portf\u00f6ylerini 3. \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6neminde art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekerken, 2011 d\u00f6nemi itibari ile sahip oldu\u011fu menkul k\u0131ymetlerin aktif i\u00e7erisindeki pay\u0131\u00a0 3. \u00e7eyrekte %29,2 ile yine Akbank oldu.<\/p>\n<p>3. \u00e7eyrek sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 ile beraber kur etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 kredi art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 incelendi\u011finde 9 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde y\u0131ll\u0131k %25\u2019lik hedefe en fazla yakla\u015fan bankan\u0131n %23,5 ile \u0130\u015f Bankas\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Akbank %19,9 kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ile ikinci s\u0131rada yer al\u0131rken, Vak\u0131fbank ise %14,2 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile son s\u0131rada yer ald\u0131. Yap\u0131kredi Bankas\u0131, Halkbank, Garanti Bankas\u0131\u2019ndaki kur etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f 9 ayl\u0131k kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 ise s\u0131ras\u0131 ile %17,6, %16,7 ve %15,6 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n<p>3. \u00e7eyrekte kredi- mevduat marj\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeye kar\u015f\u0131n, enflasyona endeksli tahvillerdeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck getiri nedeni ile bankalar\u0131n net faiz marjlar\u0131 bask\u0131 alt\u0131ndayd\u0131. Bu t\u00fcrden menkul k\u0131ymetlerin, toplam portf\u00f6y i\u00e7erisindeki a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek olan Garanti net faiz marjlar\u0131nda 41bps ile benzerlerine nazaran daha fazla daralmaya maruz kald\u0131. Akbank ve \u0130\u015f Bankas\u0131 muhasebesel anlamda enflasyon ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeleri yerine beklenti \u00fczerinde bu k\u0131ymetleri de\u011ferlerken, \u0130\u015f Bankas\u0131\u2019deki faiz marj\u0131 daralmas\u0131 35bps olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Akbank\u2019\u0131n net faiz marj\u0131 ise 10bps art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. EFG Istanbul Securities Banka analisti Mete Y\u00fcksel net faiz marjlar\u0131 ile ilgili de\u011ferlendirmesinde kredi mevduat makas\u0131n\u0131n 3. \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6neminde bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re 10bp art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stererek %3.7\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi\u011fini belirtirken, marjinal mevduat faizlerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn net faiz marj\u0131na olacak deste\u011finin bir sonraki \u00e7eyrekte daha iyi g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fini ekledi. Y\u00fcksel ayr\u0131ca, 3. \u00e7eyrekte %2 enflasyon bile\u015fen getirisine sahip enflasyona endeksli tahvillerin getirisine ili\u015fkin 4. \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nemindeki hesaplamada baz al\u0131nacak A\u011fustos-Ekim enflasyonunun y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olarak %19 getiri yaratmas\u0131n\u0131n 4. \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nemi kar\u0131na ciddi katk\u0131 sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti. Oyak Yat\u0131r\u0131m Banka analisti Neslihan Karag\u00f6z, itfalar\u0131 ve sat\u0131lmaya haz\u0131r finansal varl\u0131k portf\u00f6y\u00fcnden elden \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan menkul k\u0131ymetlerden erken elde edilen getirileri ile kredi-mevduat marj\u0131ndaki daralmay\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layan bankalar\u0131n \u00e7eyreksel net faiz marjlar\u0131n\u0131 sabit tutabildiklerini belirtirken, menkul k\u0131ymet portf\u00f6ylerindeki T\u00dcFE\u2019ye endeksli tahvilleri realizasyona g\u00f6re muhasebele\u015ftiren bankalar\u0131n bu nedenle, 3. \u00c7eyrekte menkul k\u0131ymet getirilerinin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bu durumun net faiz marj\u0131 daralmas\u0131n\u0131n kredi \u2013 mevduat marj\u0131 daralmas\u0131ndan daha fazla olmas\u0131na neden oldu\u011funu belirtti. Karag\u00f6z ayr\u0131ca 3. \u00c7eyrekte net faiz marj\u0131n\u0131 etkileyen fakt\u00f6rleri analiz ederken TL\u2019nin \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurmak gerekti\u011fini ekledi.<\/p>\n<p>Banka aktif kalitesinin 3\u00e711 d\u00f6neminde de art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6zlenirken, art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Net faiz marjlar\u0131nda 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen daralma neticesinde bankalar, aktif kalitesi ve gider y\u00f6netimine verdikleri \u00f6nemi art\u0131r\u0131rlarken, takipteki kredilerin toplam kredilere oran\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f Yap\u0131 Kredi Bankas\u0131 haricinde 3. \u00e7eyrekte de devam etti. Tahsil edilen takipteki kredilerin toplam\u0131 tutar\u0131 y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde oldu\u011fu gibi bu \u00e7eyrekte de yeni temerr\u00fctlerin \u00fczerinde olurken, nominal anlamda g\u00f6r\u00fclen d\u00fczelmede g\u00f6r\u00fclen yava\u015flama \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczde d\u00f6nemlerde, aktif kalitesindeki iyile\u015fmenin net kara olan katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n azalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 veya makroekonomik ko\u015fullara g\u00f6re seyrin terse d\u00f6nece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcketici kredilerindeki art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n 3. \u00e7eyrekte bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re yava\u015flamas\u0131 nedeniyle \u00e7eyreksel anlamda net komisyon gelirleri baz\u0131 bankalarda azal\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. Akbank, Vak\u0131fbank ve \u0130\u015f Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n net komisyon gelirleri bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re s\u0131ras\u0131yla %14,9, %7,3 ve %1,5 azal\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterirken, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazdaki bu bankalardaki komisyon gelirlerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen art\u0131\u015f %21,8, %49,7 ve %21,8 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015ferek y\u0131ll\u0131k %16,0 ve %13,1 art\u0131\u015f yakalayan Yap\u0131 Kredi Bankas\u0131 ve Ganranti Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131. Halkbank \u00e7eyreksel ve y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda net komisyon gelirlerini s\u0131ras\u0131yla %7,7 ve %59,2 art\u0131rarak dikkat \u00e7ekti. Net komisyon gelirlerinin toplam gelirlere oran\u0131 incelendi\u011finde Yap\u0131 Kredi Bankas\u0131 ve Garanti Bankas\u0131 %35,4 ve %33,3 ile \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, sadece kamu bankalar\u0131n\u0131n oran\u0131n\u0131n %20\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n<p>Gider y\u00f6netimindeki iyi performans 3. \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6neminde de devam etti. Hem \u00e7eyreksel hem y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6steren operasyonel gider taraf\u0131, banka finansallar\u0131 \u00fczerinde ek y\u00fck olu\u015fturmazken, \u015fube a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015flar\u0131na odaklanan kamu bankalar\u0131n\u0131n giderlerinin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.\u00a0 Halkbank ve Vak\u0131fbank\u2019\u0131n 3. \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6neminde operasyonel giderleri ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re s\u0131ras\u0131yla %15,7 ve %14,5 art\u0131\u015fla \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131karken, Akbank y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda giderlerini %2,0 azaltarak, \u0130\u015f Bankas\u0131 ve Garanti Bankas\u0131 ise s\u0131ras\u0131yla\u00a0 %1,4 ve %4,5 art\u0131rarak etkin maliyet y\u00f6netimleri ile dikkat \u00e7ektiler. 3. \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6neminde marj daralmas\u0131 ve t\u00fcrev i\u015flem zararlar\u0131 nedeni ile \u00f6zel bankalar\u0131n Op. Gid. \/ Op. Gel.\u00a0 Oranlar\u0131n\u0131n ciddi \u015fekilde art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi g\u00f6zlendi. 2. \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6neminde bu oran\u0131n\u0131n Garanti Bankas\u0131 ve \u0130\u015f Bankas\u0131\u2019nda s\u0131ras\u0131yla\u00a0 %34,7 ve %43,1 olmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n 3\u00e711\u2019de bu bankalardaki oranlar %49,0 ve %50,6\u2019a ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4060874149\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2011\u2019in 3. \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nemi finansal sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayan T\u00fcrk bankalar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu net karlar, genel itibari ile piyasay\u0131 tatmin etmedi. \u0130stisnalar hari\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131klanan karlar beklentilerin alt\u0131nda&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":2778,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8180","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8180","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8180"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8180\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2778"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8180"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8180"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8180"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}