{"id":8095,"date":"2011-11-24T13:19:59","date_gmt":"2011-11-24T10:19:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=8095"},"modified":"2011-11-24T13:20:06","modified_gmt":"2011-11-24T10:20:06","slug":"ucuncu-ceyrekte-istihdam","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ucuncu-ceyrekte-istihdam\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00c7eyrekte \u0130stihdam"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>K\u00fcresel mali piyasalarda sert \u00e7alkant\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. D\u00fcnya borsalar\u0131 ini\u015fe ge\u00e7ti. D\u00fcn bir ara Paris borsas\u0131 y\u00fczde 6 d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Hata olabilir diye kontrol etmek ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 hissettim. Euro b\u00f6lgesi tahvil piyasalar\u0131nda ise tam bir k\u00e2bus ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Parite 1.33\u2019e geriledi.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1674891231\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye de f\u0131rt\u0131nadan pay\u0131n\u0131 al\u0131yor. Son bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131mda \u0130MKB endeksi 51 bin civar\u0131nda dola\u015f\u0131yordu. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k d\u00f6viz kuru nispeten sakindi. Sepet kur 2.18 TL\u2019ye, paritenin etkisi ile dolar 1.87 TL\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n<p>Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu ola\u011fan toplant\u0131s\u0131 d\u00fcn yap\u0131ld\u0131. Piyasa bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik beklemiyordu. Merkez Bankas\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmad\u0131. Politika faizlerini sabit tuttu. Ama paran\u0131n patronu oldu\u011funu tekrar hat\u0131rlatt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Rekorlar y\u0131l\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Hanehalk\u0131 \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc Ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 a\u011fustos sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 T\u00dc\u0130K taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131nland\u0131. Temmuz-eyl\u00fcl d\u00f6nemini kaps\u0131yor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek itibariyle istihdam ve i\u015fsizli\u011fin durumu kesinle\u015fti.<\/p>\n<p>Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemi ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131nca kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7ok parlak bir resim \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Son bir y\u0131lda 15+ ya\u015f n\u00fcfus 1.1 milyon artarken toplam istihdamda art\u0131\u015f 1.7 milyon oldu. Yani istihdam n\u00fcfustan 600 bin (y\u00fczde 55) daha h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc.<\/p>\n<p>Fark nereden geldi? Canl\u0131 emek piyasas\u0131 i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 destekledi. Kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 51\u2019e y\u00fckselerek tarihi bir rekor k\u0131rd\u0131. N\u00fcfusun \u00fczerindeki istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 100 bini buradan kaynakland\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Ya geri kalan 500 bin ki\u015fi? \u0130\u015fsiz say\u0131s\u0131 3 milyondan 2.5 milyona indi. B\u00f6ylece \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 2.2 puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle y\u00fczde 9,2\u2019ye geriledi. Bu da tarihi bir rekordur.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1405179249\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Takvim ve mevsim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f say\u0131lar da ayn\u0131 y\u00f6ndedir. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 9,6\u2019ya d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ocak 2005\u2019te ba\u015flayan serinin en k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131d\u0131r. Sadece 2007 k\u0131\u015f\u0131nda iki ay (ocak ve mart) y\u00fczde 10\u2019un alt\u0131na inmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0130lgin\u00e7 e\u011filimler<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Baz\u0131 uzun d\u00f6nemli e\u011filimler de ilgimi \u00e7ekti. Grafik bunlar\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Birincisi, k\u00fcresel kriz sonras\u0131nda istihdam daha h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131yor. \u00dccretli istihdam\u0131na bak\u0131yorum. Kriz \u00f6ncesinde (2005-08) 1.4 milyon, sonras\u0131nda ise (2008-11) 2 milyon artm\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n<p>Olumlu ama a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 gereken bir geli\u015fmedir. \u0130ki d\u00f6nem aras\u0131nda ne de\u011fi\u015fti? \u00dccretli istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u015fimdi mi y\u00fcksek? Yoksa kriz \u00f6ncesi art\u0131\u015f m\u0131 \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck? Bence tart\u0131\u015fmaya de\u011fer.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4060950591\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Di\u011feri istihdam\u0131n kalitesindeki ciddi zafiyetlerdir. Tar\u0131mda istihdam kriz \u00f6ncesinde 45 bin, sonras\u0131nda 1.1 milyon art\u0131yor: 23 kat\u0131. Sanayide ise art\u0131\u015f kriz \u00f6ncesinde 250 bin, sonras\u0131nda 135 bin: adeta yar\u0131s\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnsenize, kriz sonras\u0131nda sanayide i\u015f bulan her vatanda\u015f i\u00e7in tar\u0131mda sekiz ki\u015fi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Hayra alamet de\u011fildir; benden s\u00f6ylemesi&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>K\u00fcresel mali piyasalarda sert \u00e7alkant\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. D\u00fcnya borsalar\u0131 ini\u015fe ge\u00e7ti. D\u00fcn bir ara Paris borsas\u0131 y\u00fczde 6 d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Hata olabilir diye kontrol etmek ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 hissettim.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8095","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8095","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8095"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8095\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8095"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8095"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8095"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}